Thursday Night Football Best Bets and Player Props: Jets vs. Colts
Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday night when the Colts host the Jets.
After being outscored 81-33 in consecutive losses to the Falcons and Patriots, the Jets shocked the football world (as well as the oddsmakers) by beating the Bengals, 34-31, as 12-point home underdogs in backup quarterback Mike White's first career start.
New York—who is 0-4 both straight-up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) in road games this season—aims to win its first road game since Week 16 of last season, when it stunned the world by upsetting the Rams as 17.5-point underdogs.
The Colts, who started 0-3 SU, have won three of their last five games, which includes covering the spread in four of those contests. The only time Indianapolis was not a winning investment in October came last week when they were upset by the Titans in overtime, 34-31, as 3-point home favorites.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends and Info
- Spread: New York Jets +10.5 (-110) | Indianapolis Colts -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York (+410) | Indianapolis (-550)
- Total: 46.5– Over (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
- Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NYJ 48% | IND 52%
- Game Info: Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
The line has held steady since its opening in favor of Indianapolis (3-5 SU; 5-3 ATS) as a 10.5-point home favorite over New York at SI Sportsbook.
The total, which opened at 47, has ticked down slightly to 46.5.
The Jets (2-5 SU; 2-5 ATS) are averaging the third-fewest points per game (16.3) and face a Colts defense allowing 23 points per game in four home games.
Indianapolis has struggled at Lucas Oil Stadium, with only one SU win against a 1-7 Houston squad in four contests and an overall 2-2 ATS mark. The Colts are just 5-7 ATS (42%) over their last 12 regular season home games.
On the flip side, bettors fading the Jets in road games have found successful financial returns from their investments. New York, who is 0-4 ATS away from MetLife Stadium this season, is 2-10 ATS (17%) in its last 12 regular season road games.
Jets Player Prop Info
On a short week, the Jets will now be rolling out White for his second career start.
If White is able to even come close to replicating what he produced in his first start against Cincinnati, then the Jets are a live double-digit underdog.
The former Western Kentucky standout shocked the world when he threw for a league-high 405 passing yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati. White, playing for the injured Zach Wilson (knee), guided the Jets' offense to a dominating performance that produced a season-high 511 yards - despite missing leading wideout Corey Davis (hip).
The Jets' offensive attack will likely scheme a plan that leans on White’s strengths, which led to him completing 82% of his passes against Cincinnati.
New York’s passing offense, which included completing passes to an eye-popping 10 different players, heavily relied upon running backs Michael Carter and Ty Johnson, as well as wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore.
Expect Carter, a rookie who has become more involved in the game plans with back-to-back 70%-plus offensive snaps, to see high volume again against the Colts. Pro money is backing Carter to exceed his receiving yardage proposition number of 34.5.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Colts Player Prop Info
The Cols possess solid offensive production from start running back Jonathan Taylor, as well as emerging wideout Michael Pittman.
Carson Wentz, who has thrown two-plus touchdowns in five consecutive games, has a solid 14:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. Wentz faces a Jets defense surrendering the third-most points per game (29.4). New York has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to Matt Ryan (2), Mac Jones (2) and Joe Burrow (3).
Oddsmakers are projecting Pittman will only have a moderate impact against the Jets, as SI Sportsbook has his receiving yard betting market set at 67.5.
My projections have the second-year wideout, who has gone over this posted number in five of eight games this season, surpassing his betting proposition number.
Pittman has hauled in 14 receptions for 191 yards and three touchdowns off a team-high 19 targets over the last two games. The Jets have have already allowed nine opposing offensive players to surpass this posted total.
Check the Week 9 Betting Lines at SI Sportsbook
Backing Pittman over 67.5 receiving yards Thursday night is a solid investment.
Another player proposition market bettors should look to target involves Taylor. His receiving total is set at 17.5, which is simply too low. Taylor, who has multiple receptions in six of eight games, has a superb matchup against a Jets defense that struggles to cover opposing running backs in the passing game.
New York has allowed Christian McCaffrey (89), James White (45), Javonte Williams (33), Jeremy McNichols (74), Cordarrelle Patterson (60), Brandon Bolden (79) and Joe Mixon (58) to exceed this low total. Eclipsing the projection of 17.5 makes this market one all bettors should look to exploit in the first game of Week 9.
Frankie's Thursday Night Football Betting Advice
Although the Jets have been outscored 126-47 in four road games, they have shown the ability to compete with the best teams in the AFC in their home wins over the Titans and Bengals. Now, they just need to display that kind of effort on the road.
The Jets, despite losing their young franchise quarterback, have shown they are buying into Robert Saleh’s program. Let's grab the double-digit points in this matchup and invest New York can stay within the number on a short week.
BET: Jets +10.5 (-110)
PROP BETS:
Michael Carter, RB, Jets: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Pittman, WR Colts: Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor, RB Colts: Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
Trends:
- The Over is 4-0 in New York’s last four games this season
- The NYJ are 0-4 ATS on the road in 2021
- The Over is 4-1 in Indianapolis’s last five games overall
- The NYJ are 2-10 ATS over its last 12 road games
- The Colts are 5-7 ATS over its last 12 home games
SI BET REVIEW
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 5-2 ATS (71%) / Props 7-7 +2.85 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football YTD: 22-15 ATS (59%) & Props +8.45 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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