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Boxing Betting Primer: Saul 'Canelo' Álvarez vs. Caleb Plant
Here we go!
All the super middleweight belts are on the line this coming Saturday, as WBA (Super), WBC, and WBO champion Canelo Álvarez, takes on IBF champion Caleb Plant in a winner-take-all matchup.
Canelo is out to solidify his spot as the greatest 168-pound fighter of all time.
After cruising to a one-sided unanimous decision over Callum Smith last December, he claimed the vacant WBA and WBC titles. He followed that up by stopping Billy Joe Saunders in May, adding the WBO belt to his collection.
A win on Saturday night will give him the IBF title, making him the undisputed champ in less than a year.
Looking to spoil Canelo’s legendary run will be the undefeated IBF champ, Caleb Plant. Plant won the title back in 2019, and has since defended it three times. Canelo will be by far the biggest test of his career, and a win for Plant would be up there in upsets. Not quite a Buster Douglas type upset, but definitely up there in the sport’s history.
Let’s dive into a quick breakdown of what we have in store Saturday night:
Check out the latest odds at SI Sportsbook
TALE OF THE TAPE:
CANELO | PLANT | |
|---|---|---|
56-1-2 | RECORD | 21-0-0 |
31 | AGE | 29 |
5'8" | HEIGHT | 6'1" |
70.5 inches | REACH | 74 inches |
Orthodox | STANCE | Orthodox |
68% | KO | 57% |
32% | DECISION | 43% |
Fairly close in age, Canelo comes in with almost four times the career rounds (425 to 122) and the much more superior level of competition on his résumé.
Canelo’s only defeat comes against Floyd Mayweather, where he lost a very close majority decision back in 2013. Since then, he’s been near unstoppable—including retiring his last two opponents inside the distance.
Plant has yet to taste defeat (21-0) and is coming in, as mentioned, on three straight title defenses—winning two of those three via TKO.
As the two fighters enter Saturday’s event, Canelo will have 183 days of inactivity in comparison to Plant’s 281. Plant is the younger fighter and has height and reach advantages. Canelo will have the massive experience edge, coupled with technique and power on his side. Canelo is no stranger to fighting bigger opponents, as his fight against Sergy Kovalev holds some comparisons; Kovalev is 6’ and has a 72” reach, yet still eventually got finished by the “The Cinnamon Don.”
OVERALL ODDS:
Canelo is hanging around as a 10:1 favorite, while Plant is roughly +600. Oddsmakers favor this fight to go over 9.5 rounds (-130) with the under at +110. There are almost 200 variations of props available on this fight, with the most popular being:
- +163 Fight goes to decision
- -225 Fight doesn’t go to decision
- -160 Álvarez wins by TKO/KO or DQ
- +210 Álvarez wins by decision
- +1800 Plant wins by TKO/KO or DQ
- +1100 Plant wins by decision
SO, WHO DO YOU TAKE?
I don’t think it's who you take—it's determining if there's a prop or total that makes the most sense here.
Canelo has continuously fought higher-ranked opponents and in his last five fights, all but one (Yildrim) were ranked in the top 5. Plant, on the other hand, hasn’t fought anyone in the top 10, and actually was placed as the underdog in his title fight against Jose Uzcategui.
Historically, Canelo comes off as a very accurate puncher coupled with great defense. Plant has a little less ability to stick a dart, but his defense has looked incredible as of late—though, you have to consider the level of opponents in comparison to Canelo’s. Canelo lands power shots almost at will, yet throws much less volume in comparison to Plant.
Canelo will go to work on the body, and look to close in on Plant with his pressure, utilizing his great head movement while avoiding the volume from Plant. I expect him to control the range and be busy with counters, while mixing in the power shots he’s known for. In avoiding these shots, Plant will look to slip the big shots and pour on his volume, where he’ll look to win rounds attempting to outland Canelo.
I could see this the script for the early rounds, with Canelo taking over early to mid-fight. Plant’s been known to slow in the past and after absorbing the body blows coming his way from Canelo, he’ll probably lose some steam, turning this fight ugly.
There is some emotion coming into this bout after the September face-off where we saw Canelo shove Plant almost off stage, with the result being a trade of slap/strike attempts from both until crews separated the two. During the altercation, Canelo cut Plant below the eye, most likely from the frame of the glasses he wore.
The scar has been staring back at Plant since that day.
He’s heavily motivated and he knows he has to stay on the gas for all 12 rounds looking to constantly keep Canelo out of his comfort zone.
Canelo, on the other side, has admittedly stated he’s never had this much bad blood towards an opponent coming into a fight. If he utilizes that motivation correctly, and looks anything like he has in his last few outings, it's going to be a very one-sided fight by night’s end.
Canelo Álvarez by TKO/KO, or DQ -160
Enjoy the fights!
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