NFL Player Props Week 10: Five Bets to Target

Breaking down the best player props to target before placing your NFL Week 10 bets.

Shawn Childs | Nov 12, 2021

After nine weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 23-20 while being -0.60 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.

I went 2-3 in NFL prop bets last week, with two losses coming from disappointing offensive showings by the Chiefs and Bills. A win is a win, and a loss is a loss. The goal is to be on the positive side of each investment, regardless of the back story.

If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit ($100 to win $150 with +150 betting line).

When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.

Check NFL Week 10 Lines at SI Sportsbook

Bet: More than 24.5 completions for Josh Allen (-110)

I’ve been on the losing side of Allen’s yards over the past two weeks.

Over the past month, he gained more than 300 combined yards in each matchup (1,371 combined yards – 343 yards per game). I’m going back to Allen this week for one of my prop bets, but I choose over 24.5 completions.

Allen had 63 completions in two games (33 and 30) vs. the Jets in 2020, with each contest resulting in more than 300 yards passing (312/2 and 307/0).

Over his first six games this year, he had a floor of 29 completions in five matchups (30, 32, 35, 29 and 31), while averaging 39.9 pass attempts on the season. His over/under in pass attempts (35.5) has a -130 betting line, meaning investors expect him to hit on the higher side of his pass attempt total.

SI Sportsbook has Buffalo favored by 11.5 points, pointing to them playing from lead with a high number of runs. The Jets allowed more than 24.5 completions in three games (TEN – 30, ATL – 33 and NE – 28). Over the past four games, quarterbacks passed for 1,330 yards with 11 touchdowns against New York.

There should be multiple winners for anyone betting on the high side of Allen’s props in Week 10.

Bet: More than 61.5 rushing yards for Aaron Jones (-115)

The Packers continue to rotate A.J. Dillon with Jones in their backfield.

Dillon finished with 90 combined yards with four catches in 12 touches last week, while giving the appearance of having more playing time. Jones won the snap battle (40 to 24) vs. the Chiefs, but he had no catches with a minimal day running the ball (12/53). He gained 110 combined yards the previous week, while Dillon was the better player in the run game (16/78 – 15/59/1 for Jones).

On the year, Jones averages 16.6 touches over nine starts. He gained more than 61 yards in four matchups (17/67/1, 19/82/1, 14/103, and 13/76). Jones doesn’t have a run for more than 20 yards over his past three games.

Seattle struggled against the run over the first four weeks (30/113, 40/212/3, 34/140, and 29/143), and rushers finished with 29 or more carries in seven of their eight games. Over the past three games, the Seahawks faced three struggling passing offenses (PIT, NO and JAC).

Provided he plays, Aaron Rodgers will force Seattle to defend the whole field. Green Bay should run the ball 30-plus times, and Jones has the wheels to hit on a long play on any carry. In the DFS marker, Jones may very well end up being the top running back while being a much lower own than Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris. I also expect Jones to post a win on his longest run prop (more than 14.5 yards).

Bet: More than 90.5 yards rushing for Dalvin Cook (-115)

Kirk Cousins had a much higher over/under in passing yards (274.5) than my projections (will be updated again tonight and posted Saturday morning). SI Sportsbook lists this matchup with an over/under of 53.5, pointing to plenty of scoring by both teams. The rub here comes from the Chargers’ weakness defending the run (4.9 YPC). Rushers have drilled Los Angeles in six different games (DAL – 31/198/2, KC – 30/186, CLE – 35/205/3, BAL – 38/187/3, NE – 39/141/1 and PHI – 39/176/2).

Over his five full games, Cook rushed for 520 yards on 106 carries (4.9 YPC) while averaging 21.2 carries. In addition, he gained more than 100 yards in all three of his road games (22/131, 29/140/1, and 17/110). His only strike in 2021 is his lack of production in scoring (two touchdowns). The Vikings had Cook on the field for a season-high 80 percent of their snaps in Week 9.

Minnesota has an excellent matchup for its rushing offense, and Cook looks poised to rush for more than 90.5 yards. If the Vikings operate with a lead, Cousins won’t need to throw as many passes.

Bet: More than 69.5 yards receiving for DK Metcalf (-115)

Metcalf has been an every other week player over the past six games in receiving yards. In his three odds weeks, he gained more than 90 yards (6/107/1, 5/98/2, and 2/96/1) compared to weaker results in his other three matchups (4/65/1, 6/58, and 6/43/2). In two of these games, Metcalf played with Geno Smith starting. The return of Russell Wilson should be a big win for his targets (only 23 over the past four contests compared to 33 over the first four games).

Green Bay continues to overachieve defending wide receivers (104/1,278/9 on 176 targets – 6th) despite losing its top cornerback (Jaire Alexander) in Week 4. Four receivers (Deonte Harris – 2/72/1, Ja’Marr Chase – 6/159/1, Terry McLaurin – 7/122/1 and Diontae Johnson – 9/92/1) gained more than 100 yards vs. the Packers.

I have Metcalf projected for seven catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. Seattle does have him listed as questionable for this week’s game with a foot issue, but I expect him to play, along with the sportsbooks, based on his betting line.

Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb — Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

Bet: More than 5.5 catches for CeeDee Lamb (+105)

After two active games (9/149/2 and 6/112) against the Patriots and Vikings, Lamb only caught two of his nine targets for 23 yards against the Broncos. He broke free a couple of times for possible long plays, but Dak Prescott failed to have the passing window to deliver the ball on time.

Lamb caught six passes or more in half of his eight starts, but they all came on the road (30/446/3). In his four matchups in Dallas, he only has 11 catches for 186 yards and one touchdown on 23 targets. I’m looking for a correction in his home/away splits in Week 10.

Atlanta sits 20th defending wide receivers (96/1,173/11 on 150 targets). However, a favorable schedule helped its pass defense ranking (PHI, NYG, NYJ, MIA, CAR and NO). Surprisingly, only one wide receiver (Jaylen Waddle – 7/83) caught more than six passes against the Falcons (four wideouts finished with six catches).

Michael Gallup returns this week, leading to another option splitting wide receiver targets. Lamb remains the Cowboys’ top wideout in snaps (487) despite a WR3 opportunity last week due to a slight ankle issue, and isn't listed in the injury report.

On a side note, if the top quarterbacks can figure out how to throw touchdowns again, a four-player parlay with Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes would pay about $3,790 on a $100 investment. Here is a look at their betting lines for passing touchdowns:

Josh Allen (more than 2.5 TDs = +145)
Dak Prescott (more than 2.5 TDs = +110)
Justin Herbert (more than 2.5 TDs = +170)
Patrick Mahomes (more than 2.5 TDs = + 175)

I could see at least three of these props coming in.

Check NFL Week 10 Lines at SI Sportsbook

Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter

More Betting & NFL:

• Week 10 Early Line Movements
• Betting Impact: OBJ Joins the Rams
• Favorite Bet Series: Tied at Halftime
• Chiefs-Raiders Betting roundtable
• UFC Vegas 42 Betting Primer
• The Rams Always Made Sense for OBJ

Published Nov 12, 2021

SHAWN CHILDS