NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement and Odds Tracking

Week 11 NFL lines and odds are on the move, but just where is the money showing at SI Sportsbook?

Frankie Taddeo | Nov 18, 2021

After 10 weeks of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding a sizable edge in the wagering outcome with 85-61-1 mark Against The Spread (58.2%).

The action returns Thursday with a primetime showdown between the Patriots and Falcons on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots are currently a 6.5-point road favorite, with a total sitting on the game at 47 at SI Sportsbook.

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Let’s take an early look ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.

Check the Week 11 Lines at SI Sportsbook

NFL Week 11 Games ‘On The Move’

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

This game opened in early wagering back in August with New Orleans as a 3-point favorite, but was adjusted to an opening line of the Eagles as 1.5-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook. Philadelphia, following a convincing 30-13 win at Denver as a 1-point road favorite, will be looking to snap a four-game home losing streak.

The Saints possess the league’s best rush defense (72.9 rushing yards per game) and will face an Eagles' rushing attack that ranks third in the NFL at 144.3 yards per game. Bettors are investing that the Eagles will win the game in the trenches and earn their first SU win at home after posting a 2-2 ATS mark over the winless streak. The Saints have beaten the Eagles in seven of the last ten meetings dating back to 2006.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 56% of money on Philadelphia
Line Move: New Orleans -3 to Philadelphia -1.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

NO: 5-4 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)
PHI: 5-5 ATS (Home: 1-3 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

NO: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
PHI: 6-10 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders

We have witnessed a flip of favorites from the early August line involving the Raiders in Week 11 hosting Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

This game opened with Las Vegas as a 4.5-point home favorite in early wagering over the summer, but opened this past Sunday with Cincinnati as 1.5-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook. Oddsmakers have since witnessed strong steam backing the Bengals to break a two-game losing skid. Pro money is wagering that Cincinnati, with the ninth-best scoring offense (26.2 points per game) will move the ball in the air with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Las Vegas has faced a multitude of off-the-field issues, and bettors are wagering the Raiders' season will continue to head in the wrong direction and result in a third consecutive Straight-Up (SU) and ATS loss.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 63% of money on Cincinnati
Line Move: Las Vegas -4.5 to Cincinnati -1.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

CIN: 4-5 ATS (Home: 1-3 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)
LVR: 4-5 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

LVR: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson jogs off the field. — Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks, early 3.5-point home favorites in August, were adjusted to 2.5-point home underdogs on last Sunday’s opener at SI Sportsbook. The Cardinals (5-0 SU and ATS on the road) face a Seattle squad coming off a 17-0 loss at Green Bay.

Arizona owns a 6-2-1 ATS mark against their NFC West foe in the last nine meetings. Bettors are hoping the Cardinals will have Kyler Murray back under center against a Seattle defense that ranks 29th against the pass, allowing 275.3 yards per game through the air. The Seahawks will need to get quarterback Russell Wilson on track in his second game back from a finger injury, following a dismal 161-yard, two-interception effort against the Packers in his first game since Week 5.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 54% of money on Arizona
Line Move: Seattle -3.5 to Arizona -2.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

ARZ: 7-3 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 5-0 ATS)
SEA: 5-4 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
SEA: 8-8 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

This is easily the best game of the Week 11 slate and offers NFL fans a look at a potential Super Bowl LVI matchup.

The Cowboys possess the league’s best scoring offense (31.6 points per game) and look to extend their road ATS winning streak to five games and improve upon a league-best 8-1 overall ATS mark. The Chiefs snapped their three-game ATS losing streak last week when they dominated the Raiders, 41-3, as 2.5-point road favorites.

Kansas City is 4-1 SU over the last five weeks but owns a disappointing 2-3 ATS record over that span. The Chiefs have been difficult to trust versus the number, posting a 10-16 ATS (38%) mark over their last 26 regular season games overall. The Chiefs are a disappointing 1-10 ATS (9%) over their last 11 regular season home games dating to last season, including nine straight ATS home defeats and an 0-5 mark this year.

Public Betting: 52% of money on Kansas City
Line Move: KC -9.5 to KC -2.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 8-1 ATS (Home: 4-1 ATS, Away: 4-0 ATS)
KC: 3-7 ATS (Home: 0-5 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

Check the Week 11 Lines at SI Sportsbook

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Published Nov 18, 2021

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.