Week 13 Thursday Night Football Player Props: Cowboys at Saints

Analyzing the player props to target when the Cowboys visit the Saints this Thursday night.

The Cowboys (7-4) are looking to right the ship when they head to New Orleans to face the struggling Saints (5-6) at the Superdome for Thursday Night Football. Dallas has lost three of four, while the Saints have lost four straight.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

• Moneyline: Dallas (-200) | New Orleans (+165)
• Spread: Dallas -4.5 (-110) | New Orleans +4.5 (-110)
• Total: 47.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
• Game Info: Dec. 2, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas offense is tied with Buffalo for the second-most points scored per game  (29.3) and averaging 28.3 points per game across the last three games. Star wideout Amari Cooper missed the last two games, but he’s likely back Thursday night. CeeDee Lamb will also play after missing the Thanksgiving matchup for concussion protocol.

 That’s great news for the Cowboys since New Orleans team yields an average of 8.83 passing yards per attempt and a 73% completion rate at home, the second-worst mark in the league. Dak Prescott should successfully connect with his weapons.

Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy as well as two offensive line coaches due to the recent COVID-19 outbreak in the locker room. Dan Quinn will take over head coaching duties, and he can't be worse than McCarthy at clock management. Kellen Moore will still be calling the plays, and Dallas will try to get Ezekiel Elliott and the run game going vs. this tough New Orleans defense.

New Orleans has been stout vs the run, allowing only 66 ground yards per game and four rushing touchdowns. Zeke has been nursing a knee injury for a few months now, but all indications are he will play with a normal workload. Crowd noise could be a factor for o-line communication, and I don’t expect a lot from Dallas on the ground.

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The Saints have not yet declared their starting quarterback, but Taysom Hill has been taking first-team reps. New Orleans is looking for a spark after tallying 18.7 points per game across its last three with Trevor Siemien under center. Hill is managing foot pain, but all signs point to him being involved - even if it’s in a split. Hill has a lot to play for with his new contract, and he could give this sluggish offense a shot in the arm.

Alvin Kamara has practiced in limited fashion, while Mark Ingram practiced in full.

The Saints could attack the Cowboys in the air or on the ground. Dallas has been vulnerable on front fronts across the last four games, allowing more than 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards per game in each game during this stretch.

However, it's uncertain if the Saints will have the weapons to put up enough points to best this Dallas offense. Without Kamara, there is no star other than perhaps Hill. Ingram should do a good job with the run game, but either Siemien or Hill will be throwing the ball to Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris - and none of these combinations inspire a ton of optimism.

Thursday night will be a get-right game for the Cowboys, who need to get back on track in primetime. The Saints will put some points on the board vs. a struggling Dallas defense and Hill will be a factor, but the Cowboys cover the spread.

I’m taking the OVER on 47.5 game total.

Now, let’s have some fun with some player props!

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Taysom Hill anytime TD +190

This one feels almost too easy. Across Hill's four starts in 2020, he tallied four rushing touchdowns. In the seven games in which he has appeared in 2021, he has three touchdowns. Kamara will be limited if he plays, and I'm not concerned with Hill’s foot. Whether he is under center or just in for special packages, Hill finds the end zone.

CeeDee Lamb over 60.5 receiving yards -120

Whether or not Cooper plays, there is no question CeeDee exceeds this number. He’s exceeded this prop in seven of ten games, and he’s chomping at the bit to get back on the field. The Saints allow a 66% completion rate and 9.11 yards per target.

Dak Prescott over 8.5 rushing yards -120

It will be loud in the Superdome, there will be some miscommunication and Prescott will have to scramble at least a few times. The Saints have allowed an average of 22 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. Sure, they faced Jalen Hurts, but Prescott always exceeds this prop when facing tougher defenses. The four games where he topped this? Buccaneers, Panthers, Broncos and Patriots.

Trevon Diggs over .5 defensive interceptions +540

Here’s your lotto of the day! Trevon Diggs has been phenomenal this season with eight interceptions in 11 games played - including starting the season with at least one interception in six straight games. He hasn’t had a pick in the last two contests, but Siemien has thrown three picks across the last two games and Hill already threw a pick in only eight pass attempts this year. Diggs is due. 

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