NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: Line Movement and Odds Tracking for Sunday's Games

Week 14 NFL lines and odds are on the move, but just where is the money showing at SI Sportsbook?

Frankie Taddeo | Dec 9, 2021

It seems like yesterday we were just drafting our fantasy teams, but shockingly there are only five weeks left in the NFL regular season.

For sports bettors, underdogs continue to hold an edge in the overall wagering outcome of games with a mark of 105-84-1 Against The Spread (55.6%).

It is often beneficial to dive in and look even deeper at the numbers. As we continue to stress here at SI Betting: You are sadly mistaken if you operate under the assumption that backing home teams in the NFL is a profitable endeavor this season.

Home teams are just 85-108-1 (44.1%) ATS, while home favorites are a disappointing 45-65-1 (41.0%) ATS this season.

The action on the gridiron will return Thursday night with a primetime showdown between the Steelers and Vikings. The Vikings are currently a 3.5-point home favorite, with the total sitting at 44 at SI Sportsbook.

Let’s look ahead several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention, resulting in noticeable line moves on the Sunday slate.

Check Week 14 NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook

NFL Week 14 Games ‘On The Move’

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team

This game opened in early wagering in August with Washington as a 2.5-point home favorite, but has since flipped to an opening line of Dallas as a 4.5-point road favorite.

Dallas, coming off a road victory over New Orleans, will be looking to strengthen its quest for the NFC East crown. The Cowboys, who own a 8-4 Straight Up (SU) record, have also posted one of the league's best ATS marks at 9-3. Dallas is 4-2 on the road and has rewarded bettors with a 5-1 ATS record over those contests.

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the league, posting four consecutive SU and ATS wins, and will look to keep that unbeaten streak intact against its NFC East rival. Dallas has won seven of the last 10 matchups, but will look to snap its two-game losing streak after dropping both division contests last season.

Dallas, with the league’s second-best scoring offense (29.4 points per game), will look to exploit a Washington club they will host in Dallas in two weeks

Oddsmakers believe Washington, with the 30th-ranked pass defense (263.9), will struggle to slow down the NFL’s fourth-best passing offense (287.3) and second-best scoring offense (29.4). The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two foes.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 59% of money on Washington
Line Move: Dallas +2.5 to Dallas -4.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 9-3 ATS (Home: 4-2 ATS, Away: 5-1 ATS)
WSH: 5-7 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 3-3 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
WSH: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game has not witnessed any movement from the early August line.

Since the opener, oddsmakers have witnessed nearly even support at the betting window for both sides. The Bills will look to bounce back from their 14-10 loss to New England when they face a Tampa Bay club that is undefeated at home (5-0 SU).

The Buccaneers, who are 4-1 ATS at home, will face a Buffalo squad that is 4-2 ATS in its six road games. Where will this game be won? That’s easy. The Bills, who own the NFL’s best pass defense (272.3 yards per game), will face Tampa Bay’s top-ranked passing offense averaging 311.1 yards per game.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 53% of money on Tampa Bay
Line Move: None

2021 Against the Spread Record

BUF: 7-5 ATS (Home: 3-3 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)
TB: 6-6 ATS (Home: 4-1 ATS, Away: 2-5 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

BUF: 10-6 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
TB: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

The 49ers will look to bounce back from their road loss last week to NFC West rival Seattle when they head East to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

San Francisco, despite a 5-7 ATS record, has rewarded their backers of late with a lucrative 4-2 SU and ATS mark over its last six contests.

Bettors and oddsmakers' view of the Bengals is the opposite. Cincinnati was listed as a 3.5-point home favorite in early wagering, only to see that slashed to a 1.5-point edge based upon its recent disappointing performances. The Bengals are 2-3 SU and ATS over the last five weeks, and continue to prove to bettors they can not be trusted.

They are just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games.

Pro money is investing that San Francisco, who has averaged 29.5 points per game over the last four contest, will find success against a Cincinnati defense that has surrendered 34-plus points in three of its last five games.

Public Betting: 60% of money on Cincinnati
Line Move: San Francisco +3.5 to San Francisco +1.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

SF: 5-7 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 3-3 ATS)
CIN: 6-6 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 4-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)
CIN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

aaron-rodgers-aj-dillon-green-bay-packers — Photo credit: Dan Powers/USA TODAY Network

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

The Packers, early 9.5-point home favorites in August, have been adjusted to 12.5-point favorites. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS at Lambeau this season, and will face a Bears squad that is 1-6 both SU and ATS over their last seven games.

The Packers, who own a league-best 10-2 ATS mark, aim stay unbeaten at home against a Bears defense that ranks 23rd against the run, allowing 120.1 yards per game

The Bears will start Justin Fields under center after the rookie has missed the last two games with a rib injury. Chicago will need to find production from the league’s worst passing attack (173.8) if it has any hopes of keeping pace with Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers.

Bettors are fading a Bears team that has failed to be a wise investment when listed as underdogs this season, posting an 0-5 ATS mark over the last five games in such instances. The Packers are 19-4 against Chicago in their last 23 regular season meetings, including 10 consecutive wins and a 7-3 ATS mark over that span.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 69% of money on Green Bay
Line Move: Green Bay -9.5 to Green Bay -12.5

2021 Against the Spread Record

CHI: 4-8 ATS (Home: 2-4 ATS, Away: 2-4 ATS)
GB: 10-2 ATS (Home: 5-0 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)

2020 Against the Spread Record

CHI: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
GB: GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook

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Published Dec 9, 2021

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.