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NBA SO/UP Picks and Analysis: 76ers-Nets, Wizards-Suns
The 76ers travel to take on the first-place Nets and the Suns host the struggling Wizards in Thursday’s NBA SO/UP schedule.
SI host Robin Lundberg, this week’s guest picker, had a successful Tuesday night by picking five of six games correctly. Let’s keep it up Thursday night. Here are the picks.
Season record: 44-40
Guest pickers: 27-51
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Philadelphia 76ers (15-14) vs. Brooklyn Nets (20-8)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Spread: 76ers +1.5 (-110) | Nets -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers (+100) | Nets (-118)
Total: Under 216.5 (-110) | Over 216.5 (-110)
Injuries: Nets G James Harden—Out; Nets F Bruce Brown—Out; Nets G DeAndre’ Bembry—Out; 76ers G Furkan Korkmaz—Out; 76ers F Georges Niang—Out
The 76ers lost at home to the Heat on Wednesday, their second consecutive loss. They now travel north to Brooklyn to face the Nets, who beat the 76ers in Philly earlier in the year. Philadelphia is 1-2 on the second night of back-to-backs this season.
Philadelphia sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference in large part due to its 3-8 record without All-NBA center Joel Embiid. The 76ers’ offensive and defensive scoring ranks aren’t any better than one would expect from a team hovering around .500. The offense is ranked 24th (105.6 PPG) and the defense is 12th (106.4 PPG).
The short-handed Nets still found a way to win Tuesday against the Raptors despite only eight players being available due to COVID-19 protocols. Brooklyn scored an overtime win on the back of Kevin Durant, who turned in a 34-point triple-double two days after scoring a season-high 51 points. The Nets have won three straight games.
Brooklyn ranks 10th in the NBA in scoring (110.1 PPG). Durant is responsible for a large chunk of that, as he leads the league at 29.6 PPG. The Nets will miss James Harden’s 20.8 PPG and 9.6 assists per game against Philadelphia. Brooklyn is about league average in points allowed (106.6 PPG) and has the sixth-best point differential (+3.5).
Kyle Wood's Bets:
Spread pick: Nets -1.5
Picking between the 76ers on no rest and the Nets in the middle of a COVID-19 crisis is difficult. Neither team is in a great situation and they both perform poorly Against the Spread—Brooklyn is 11-16-1 and Philadelphia is 13-16. So, I’m going to simply trust Durant. He got it done against the Raptors on Tuesday with an assist from Patty Mills. Philadelphia is a better team than Toronto and Embiid will likely have his way in the paint, but I’m still sticking with the Nets. This game will be close, which is even more reason to trust Durant and the Nets in the clutch.
Over/Under pick: Under 216.5
The 76ers struggle to score even 100 points, doing so five times in their last 10 games. The Nets are the much more capable team on offense, but I don’t imagine they get 64 points from the Durant and Mills combo once again to push them into the 130s. This will be a tight, low-scoring affair.
Prop: Kevin Durant Over 33.5 Points
I’m picking the Nets on the shoulders of Durant, so I can’t go against him having a huge game. This is a high line that Durant has gone over in his last two games. However, he was held under 33.5 points in the five games prior. By Durant’s standards, he had an off shooting night on his way to 29 points on 20 shots the last time these teams played. He’ll be shooting and scoring more Thursday night.
Guest Picker Robin Lundberg’s Bets:
Spread pick: 76ers +1.5
The Sixers are coming off a disappointing loss against the Heat on Wednesday, while the Nets are fresh off an inspiring win over the Raptors on Tuesday. However, given that Brooklyn is extremely short-handed, it probably isn’t fair to expect them to replicate what it was able to do against the Raptors. I wouldn’t count out Kevin Durant carrying the Nets again, but he played heavy minutes against Toronto after being questionable going into the game. So, I’ll take Philly considering the circumstances and assuming Joel Embiid is in the lineup.
Over/Under pick: Under 216.5
The same logic I used for the pick I’ll use to take the under on this number. The Nets have been an impressive defensive team but without James Harden, Joe Harris and, of course, Kyrie Irving they are actually a limited offensive team. So, I don’t see the total points being high in this one.
Prop: Patty Mills Over 22.5 points plus rebounds plus assists
The Nets have needed everything they’ve gotten from Patty Mills all season and he has consistently delivered. They will need him to pick up the scoring slack again, so I could see him getting close to that total on points alone. So, I’ll take him amassing enough in the other statistical categories to go over.
Washington Wizards (15-14) vs. Phoenix Suns (22-5)
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Spread: Wizards +8.5 (+100) | Suns -8.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Wizards (+350) | Suns (-450)
Total: Under 213.5 (-110) | Over 213.5 (-110)
Injuries: Suns G Devin Booker—Out; Wizards F Rui Hachimura—Out; Wizards G Spencer Dinwiddie—Day-to-day
Washington is in a free fall. The team is 3-7 in its last 10 and enters Thursday night on a three-game losing streak that could very well be a seven-game losing streak were it not for an overtime win against the Pistons. The Wizards' last five opponents scored 113 or more points and Washington doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.
The Wizards are about average on defense, ranking 17th in scoring defense (108 PPG), but much worse on offense. The team is 23rd in scoring (105.7 PPG). Bradley Beal leads the Wizards with 22.7 PPG, but no other player averages more than 15 PPG.
Both of Phoenix's losses since October came in the last two weeks and against quality opponents (road losses to the Warriors and Clippers). The Suns beat Portland in overtime Tuesday night behind huge games from Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Those two have helped fill the void on offense with Devin Booker still sidelined. Paul, who leads the NBA in assists, powers the Suns' elite offense. As a result, Phoenix has some of the highest field goal and three-point percentages in the league.
Given their success, it’s no surprise the Suns are top eight in both scoring defense (104.8 PPG) and team scoring average (110.8 PPG).
Kyle Wood's Bets:
Spread pick: Suns -8.5
Phoenix is 12-2 at home and Washington is not going to end its downward spiral on the road against the team with the second-best record in the NBA. I’m fully convinced the Suns will win and cover this sizable spread. Since the Wizards aren’t a juggernaut on offense, Phoenix won’t need to push 120 points to cover. They can put up an average offensive showing by their standards and still win by 10 or more.
Over/Under pick: Under 213.5
I see the Suns stifling the Wizards both in the paint with Ayton and on the wings with Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder. Phoenix hasn’t been putting up monster final scores in the last few weeks since its winning streak ended. I’m not worried about the Suns putting up 125 on Washington and having to hold the Wizards well under 100 points for this to cash. I can see Phoenix winning comfortable in the 110-100 range.
Prop: DeAndre Ayton Over 19.5 Points
This total is a bit high considering Ayton averages 16.9 PPG. However, he’s coming off a season-high 28 points and is taking more shots and getting to the free-throw line more often this month. Those are all good signs for him breaking 20 points. The opportunity for second-chance points should be there against the Wizards, a below average rebounding team, and Paul does well to set up his big man with easy looks.
Guest Picker Robin Lundberg’s Bets:
Spread pick: Suns -8.5
Not only are the Wizards on a back-to-back, but their season has come off the tracks. After a surprising start, Washington has lost three in a row and six out of seven. Meanwhile, the Suns are at home and will come in with more rest and they have a 8.2 Net Rating in their own building. Give me the Suns to cover this number.
Over/Under pick: Over 213.5
The Wizards have been an abysmal defensive team of late, allowing over 118 points per 100 possessions over the last 10. While the Suns have had a lot of success on the defensive end, I imagine they’ll have enough firepower to hit the over with Deandre Ayton back in the lineup and fresh off of dropping 28 points.
Prop: Deandre Ayton Over 19.5 Points
I just mentioned Ayton’s point total in the last outing and I’ll bet him to go over his total again since Chris Paul is likely to continue to set him up with the Suns needing his offense inside in the absence of Devin Booker’s scoring punch.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
PG/SG Tyrese Maxey, 76ers (FD: $6,400 | DK: $6,900)
SG/SF Eric Gordon, Rockets (FD: $5,700 | $5,600)
SF Cam Johnson, Suns (FD: $5,400 | $5,100)
C/PF Myles Turner, Pacers (FD: $6,400 | $6,700)
C Deandre Ayton, Suns (FD: $8,000 | $8,800)
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Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.