Men's NCAA Basketball Betting Preview 12/21: Villanova Won't Cover vs. Xavier
Heading into the season, no one envisioned Villanova suffering one 20-point loss let two in a row. As a result, it dropped the preseason No. 4 Wildcats down to No. 23. After two shocking blowout losses to Baylor and Creighton, things will not get any easier for Jay Wright’s club as No. 18 Xavier heads to the Main Line.
SI Betting is here to highlight that aforementioned Top-25 showdown, while also breaking down a matchup in Milwaukee between the Huskies and Golden Eagles that jumps out as a solid investment opportunity for sports bettors.
Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Tuesday's College Basketball Best Bets
No. 18 Xavier Musketeers at No. 23 Villanova Wildcats
Spread: Xavier +5.5 (-110) | Villanova -5.5 (-110)
Total: 137.5– Over (-110) | Under 137.5 (-110)
Venue: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
Game Info: Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021 | 7 pm EST | FS1
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since opening in favor of No. 23 Villavova (7-4 SU; 5-6 ATS) as 5.5-point home favorites over No. 18 Xavier (11-1 SU; 9-3 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
Villanova is in a shocking slump under Hall of Fame head coach Jay Wright as the Wildcats lost 79-59 to the unranked Creighton Bluejays after experiencing a blowout 57-36 loss at No. 1 Baylor. The 7-4 opening mark to the season is the Wildcats worst start since 2012.
To say these two Big East rivals are trending in opposite directions is an understatement. As cold as Villanova has been, the Musketeers have been red-hot winning seven consecutive games. Over that seven-game stretch, Xavier has rewarded bettors with an impressive 6-1 ATS mark.
Veteran point guard Paul Scruggs (10.8 pggs, 4.2 ast) guides Xavier’s attack but where this matchup may be won is down on the block. Villanova may really struggle against the Musketeer’s sizable advantage of Zach Freemantle (8.7 ppg) and Jack Nunge (13.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Over the last three games, Nunge has averaged 19.0 points per game and 11.3 rebounds per game in wins over Marquette, Morehead State and Cincinnati.
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To try and pinpoint Villanova’s biggest issue this season can easily be described as a lack of team unity. This is best defined by one number: NINE. That single-digit number represents how many team assists the Wildcats have posted over the last two games combined. Villanova has thrived under Wright because they have bought into his “Good, Better, Best” mantra when it comes to offensive sets and finding the best shot per possession. Justin Moore, Brandon Slater and Jermaine Samuels have struggled mightily from beyond the arc which has led to a normally efficient Wildcat offense to look completely out of sorts.
With the way these two clubs are trending, the oddsmakers may have the wrong team favored based upon Villanova’s 8-2 record against Xavier over the past 10 meetings as opposed to what is taking place thus far in 2021. Until we see Villanova get back to the “Wright Way” of playing they can not be trusted as home or road favorites. Grab the points.
BET: Xavier +5.5 (-110)
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Connecticut Huskies at Marquette Golden Eagles
Spread: UCONN -2.5 (-110) | Marquette +2.5 (-110)
Total: 141.5– Over (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110)
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Game Info: Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021 | 9 pm EST | FS1
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since its opening in favor of Connecticut (9-3 SU; 5-7 ATS) as 2.5-point road favorites over Marquette (8-4 SU; 6-6 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
The Huskies head into the showdown with the Golden Eagles looking to notch their first Big East win of the season after suffering a 57-53 loss at Providence as 7.5-point home favorites. Senior guard R.J. Cole (16.5 ppg) leads Connecticut in scoring and assists per game (4.5). UConn will also rely upon talented senior forward Isaiah Whaley who has scored in double digits in three of the last four games.
Marquette started off the season 7-1 but has struggled recently, losing three of its last four games. The Golden Eagles have suffered losses to No. 18 Xavier, No. 5 UCLA and No. 24 Wisconsin - sandwiched in between a road victory over Kansas State. Marquette will need solid production once again from freshman sensation Justin Lewis (15.3 ppg, 7.8 rbg) to keep pace with UConn on Tuesday night.
Sophomore big man Adama Sanogo (15.6 ppg, 6.3 rbg) will be the key to a Huskie win. Sanogo, who is averaging just 7.0 points per game over his last two games, will need to produce down low for the Huskies to earn their first conference victory.
In UConn’s return to the Big East last season they posted a 2-0 SU and ATS mark in their two meetings with Marquette. Expect that streak to continue in the first matchup of 2021.
BET: UConn ML (-128)
SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2021 YTD: 3-6 ATS
2020: Our NCAA tournament betting plays yielded major financial success, thanks to Alabama (+220), Illinois (+375) and Georgia Tech (+2500) all delivering conference tournament championship victories in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, respectively, for all members here at SI Betting!
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
