NBA Christmas Day Betting Preview: Celtics vs. Bucks

Milwaukee is 3-4 this season without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Christmas Day is to the NBA as Thanksgiving is to the NFL. Five games from noon to midnight featuring the league’s top teams and biggest stars. It’s basketball heaven.

That is, if it happens according to plan.

Due to an explosion of positive COVID-19 tests around the league, some of those top teams are short-handed and many stars are in the health and safety protocols instead of out on the court. ESPN reported Tuesday the 10 teams playing on Christmas were notified that game times may be altered if COVID-19 issues force changes.

Nine games have been rescheduled as of Wednesday, according to Hashtagbasketball.com. That includes three Nets games and one Hawks game, both of whom play on Christmas.

Players in the league’s health and safety protocols include: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Trae Young and Luka Doncic, according to CBS Sports’ running list. All of them are scheduled to play on Christmas if they are cleared to do so.

With all of those contingencies and availability concerns, let’s get into the games.

Our very own Doug Vazquez rejoins me as a guest picker to make selections for the Christmas Day bout between Boston and the Bucks.

Season record: 49-46-1
Guest pickers: 32-58

Editor's Note: All stats, records and odds are as of Dec. 23

Check the Latest NBA Lines at SI Sportsbook

Paul Rutherford/USA TODAY Sports

Boston Celtics (16-16) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (20-13)

• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET, ABC
• Spread: Celtics +6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Celtics (+240) | Bucks (-300)
• Total: Under 227.5 (-118) | Over 227.5 (+100)

Injuries: Celtics C Al Horford—Out; Celtics F Grant Williams—Out; Celtics G Josh Richardson—Out; Bucks G Grayson Allen—Day-to-day; Bucks F Giannis Antetkounmpo—Out; Bucks C Bobby Portis—Out; Bucks C Brook Lopez—Out

The Celtics haven’t won or lost more than three games in a row this season. Two wins there, three losses here, and Boston, a team with two star wings, is stuck in the muddled middle in the East. The team’s offensive and defensive numbers support being a perfectly average team—the Celtics rank 14th in the NBA in scoring (108.4 PPG) and are No. 15 in points allowed (107.1 PPG).

Jayson Tatum leads the team in points (25.6) and rebounds (8.6) per game, though his shooting percentages are down to career-low marks. His field goal attempts are up this season, but his co-star Jaylen Brown has missed 14 games already. Boston ranks in the bottom third of the league in field-goal percentage (44.6) and three-point percentage (33.8), and despite not having a player average of 10-plus rebounds, the Celtics are 10th in the NBA in rebounds per game (45.7).

Milwaukee is one of the most injured teams in basketball this season. Thirteen different players have started for the Bucks, and only one player, Pat Connaughton, has played in every game for the team this season. It appears the effects of winning the NBA title deep into the summer are affecting Milwaukee’s chances of repeating. Brook Lopez has only appeared in one game, Donte DiVincenzo has yet to return, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday have missed five games, while Khris Middleton has been absent for nine.

The Bucks’ championship-level defense has taken a step back—the team ranks 16th in points allowed (107.2 PPG)—but the offense can make up for any deficiencies on that side of the ball. Antetokounmpo is playing like an MVP candidate, ranking top 10 in scoring (27) and rebounding (11.6). Milwaukee averages the seventh-most points per game (110.7) thanks to its top-10 three-point shooting percentage (35.9).

Kyle Wood’s Bets

Spread pick: Celtics +6.5

Boston is one of just 12 teams with Against the Spread records above .500. Meanwhile, despite having one of the league’s best records, Milwaukee has the third-worst ATS record (13-19). The Celtics beat Milwaukee by 14 two weeks ago with Antetokounmpo playing. If he’s held out of this matchup and Boston still has a healthy Brown and Tatum, Boston should be able to keep this game close enough to cover the spread and have a shot to win outright.

Over/Under pick: Under 227.5

These teams combined for 120 and 135 points (in overtime) in their two meetings this season—both Celtics wins. This high total and, you’ll notice, a common theme here for many of my Christmas day picks, the possibility of stars being held out makes me lean under. Neither team has been locked down on defense so far, but their offenses are not at the peak of their powers, either—Milwaukee scored just 90 points against Cleveland on Saturday.

Guest Picker Doug Vazquez’s Bets

Spread pick: Bucks -6.5

The Celtics have been a mixed bag so far, and I’m unsure what to make of them. They have some impressive wins against good teams and some disgusting losses to bad teams. Boston is coming off of a 3-2 homestand to face the defending champs for the third time this season, having won the first two encounters. This game feels like it will be too big for the Celtics to handle, and the Bucks should get the Greek Freak’s best in this one, should he be able to play. The Celtics held Antetokounmpo to 20 points in their last matchup on Dec. 13 in what was a quiet game for the reigning Finals MVP. He will be even more motivated to put up a monster game on national TV in this one. I’m taking the Champs and laying the points.

Over/Under pick: Under 227.5

Taking the under on Christmas Day games has been profitable for bettors for the last 15 plus years as it has hit 61% of the time since 2005. The sportsbooks are also losing money to under bettors this season as it has a 236-210-6 record. Celtics games have hit the under 18 times in 33 games this season, while Bucks games have done so 20 times in 33 games. With both teams affected by injuries and COVID-19, I expect the pace of this game to be slowed down, and I am going to trust the trends and take the under in this one.

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