NBA SO/UP Bets and Breakdown: Bucks vs. Magic and Cavaliers vs. Wizards

Milwaukee travels south to Orlando looking to complete the season sweep.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Dec 30, 2021

The Bucks and Magic play for the second time this week and the Cavaliers and Wizards meet for the third time this season.

Matt Ehalt is back as our guest picker after he went 4-2 on Tuesday night. I wasn’t able to gain any ground, going 3-3.

Season record: 57-54-1

Guest pickers: 39-67

Milwaukee Bucks (23-13) vs. Orlando Magic (7-28)

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Spread: Bucks -13.5 (-119) | Magic +13.5 (+100)

Moneyline: Bucks (-1205) | Magic (+705)

Total: Under 217.5 (-110) | Over 217.5 (-110)

Injuries: Magic G Cole Anthony—Out; Magic G Jalen Suggs—Out; Magic G Markelle Fultz—Out; Magic C Mo Bamba—Out

Milwaukee beat Orlando for the third time this season, 127-110, on Tuesday night to score its fourth win in a row. The Bucks can complete the season series sweep 4-0 on Thursday. None of the games to this point have been close—the average scoring margin is 19 points per game. Milwaukee has one of the best point differentials in the NBA, ranking eighth in the league at +3.7. That’s more a result of its No. 5 scoring offense (110.9 PPG) than its 15th-ranked scoring defense (107.1 PPG).

Giannis Antetokounmpo is stringing together another MVP-caliber campaign, leading the Bucks in scoring (27.4 PPG), rebounding (11.4 RPG) and blocks (1.6 BPG). Milwaukee has had a few games this season without its fearsome trio of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday on the floor together, and they are surely missing the defensive contributions of Brook Lopez, who has only played in one game this season. Milwaukee recently welcomed Donte DiVincenzo back to the lineup after a lengthy absence from an ankle injury suffered in last year’s playoffs.

Jrue Holiday brings the ball up court against the Charlotte Hornets. — Nell Redmond/USA TODAY Sports

The Magic have the second-worst record in the NBA and have dropped their last three games. Orlando is a league-worst 2-12 at home, where it has lost its last four games. Rookie Franz Wagner is one of the sole bright spots for the young Magic team that is losing games at an alarming rate. Wagner went for a career-best 38 points Tuesday night against the Bucks.

The team’s leading scorer, Cole Anthony, is out with an ankle injury and rookie Jalen Suggs, who’s fourth on the team in scoring, is still recovering from a thumb injury. Orlando ranks 28th in the league in scoring offense (101.2 PPG) and 25th in scoring defense (110.8 PPG). As a result, the Magic have the league’s second worst point differential: minus-9.6 PPG.

Kyle Wood’s picks:

Spread pick: Bucks -13.5

I tried to talk myself into the Magic covering this massive spread and I couldn’t. Orlando is terrible at home and is shorthanded against a team that has dominated them all season and as recently as Tuesday. The Bucks aren’t especially good Against the Spread (16-20) given their overall record. The Magic (15-20) are right behind Milwaukee. The spread on Tuesday was Bucks -15 and they covered.

Over/Under pick: Over 217.5

I’m surprised to see this line is so low given these teams combined for 237 points two nights ago. Two of the three meetings this season have gone over this figure and Magic games hit the over 48.6% of the time. It did take Wagner going for nearly 40 for the Magic to score 110 points for the first time in three weeks, but Milwaukee has the firepower to score with ease against the hapless Magic defense.

Prop: Wendell Carter Under 11.5 Rebounds

Milwaukee is the third-best rebounding team in the NBA and Antetokounmpo is sixth in the league in rebounding average. Given those two stats, along with the fact that Carter’s season average is 10.1 and he grabbed 10 boards against the Bucks last time they played, I’m going under on Carter’s high rebounding total.

Guest Picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:

Spread pick: Bucks -13.5

Neither of these teams are above .500 when it comes to covering the spread, providing no trend to follow. Milwaukee is 3-0 against Orlando this year, including a 127-110 win Tuesday in Orlando. Milwaukee has covered a 13.5-point spread in two of the three meetings this season. Let’s back them doing so again Thursday, especially with no back-to-back worries.

Over/Under pick: Under 217.5

These teams have topped 217.5 in two of their three meetings, and they fell three points short of doing so in the other. However, the under hits more than 50% of the time in these teams’ games and it was the second game in the quasi back-to-back where the under hit in their previous games. Let’s back on the teams not scoring as frequently Thursday.

Prop: Jrue Holiday over 17.5 points

Jrue Holiday has topped his projection in six of his last seven games, and the only time he didn’t he finished with 17 points. He has twice scored 18 points against Orlando and is averaging 15.7 points in the three matchups. Let’s back Holiday to keep up his hot streak.

Cleveland Cavaliers (20-14) vs. Washington Wizards (17-17)

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Spread: Cavaliers +3.5 (-110) | Wizards -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Cavaliers (+138) | Wizards (-163)

Total: Under 210.5 (-110) | Over 210.5 (-110)

Injuries: Cavaliers G Ricky Rubio—Out; Cavaliers G Darius Garland—Out; Cavaliers C Jarret Allen—Out; Wizards G Bradley Beal—Questionable; Wizards C Montrezl Harrell—Out; Wizards F Rui Hachimura—Out; Wizards G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—Out

The Cavaliers dropped a close game on the road to the Pelicans Tuesday night in what was Ricky Rubio’s final game of the season. Cleveland’s backup point guard tore his ACL against New Orleans, which is a huge blow to a team that already lost Colin Sexton for the season. The Cavaliers have still been one of the biggest surprises in the league this season, currently holding the fifth seed in the East ahead of the 76ers.

Cleveland’s two leading scorers—Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen—are both out against Washington. The season series between these two teams is 1-1 with the road team winning each game so far. The Cavaliers are middle of the road on offense, ranking 16th in scoring (107.8 PPG), but they win with their second-ranked scoring defense (101.6 PPG).

Washington is in a tailspin after its stellar start to the season. The Wizards dropped their last two games and seven of their past 10. Their leading scorer, Bradley Beal (23.9 PPG) is in COVID-19 protocols and is questionable to play Thursday. Montrezl Harrell, who is second on the team in scoring (14.9 PPG), is also out due to the protocols. Spencer Dinwiddie has stepped up in recent games with Beal out, leading the team in scoring in three straight games.

The Wizards need all of the scoring help they can get as they rank 21st in offense (106 PPG) and don’t compensate on defense with the No. 20 scoring defense (109 PPG).

kevin-love-cavaliers — Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Wood’s Picks:

Spread pick: Cavaliers +3.5

Beal’s status could swing this selection, but I’m going with the road team to win in this matchup for the third time this year. The Cavaliers are the best team in the NBA Against the Spread (25-7-2), so I’m comfortable with them getting points. Missing Allen and Garland hurts, but Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen have stepped up as of late. Cleveland still has what it takes to keep it close enough on the road to cover against the spiraling Wizards.

Over/Under pick: Under 210.5

Considering the players that are certainly missing, the potential for Beal to be out and Cleveland’s lockdown defense, taking the under here is an easy choice. The Wizards were held under 100 points in two of their last five games and Cavaliers games go under 61.8% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league.

Prop: Evan Mobley Over 8.5 Rebounds

The Cavs will be missing Allen’s team-leading 10.8 boards per game, so it’s on Mobley to step up against Washington, which is missing its center, Harrell. Mobley averages 8.3 rebounds and 8.8 in the month of December. He’s gone over only twice in his last five games but I like his chances in this situation.

Guest Picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:

Spread pick: Cavaliers +3.5

The Cavaliers are the best ATS team in the NBA (25-7-2), but this is a tough one considering they just lost Ricky Rubio. However, the Wizards are a soft landing spot and are below .500 ATS. Let’s bank on Cleveland keeping this one close against a mediocre team, even as it has to adjust its rotation. We acknowledge the potential for a big letdown spot.

Over/Under pick: Over 210.5 points

Cleveland’s games often hit the under, while Washington’s games have a slight tendency to hit the over (17-16-1). You’d have to go back to Dec. 5 to find the last time the Wizards did not top 210.5 points. Let’s take the over here, especially with no back-to-back concern. Bradley Beal’s absence gives us pause on betting the over, but we’re going to ride the trend.

Prop: Evan Mobley under 17.5 points

While Evan Mobley topped this total in his last game, it marks the only time he’s done so this month. The Cavaliers will be playing with new rotations and units without Rubio, and perhaps that affects Mobley’s production. Let’s take the under here.