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Mac Jones or Ja'Marr Chase: Who is the Best Bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year?

After breaking the NFL rookie receiving yard record, Cincinnati wideout Ja'Marr Chase emerges as the new betting favorite to earn NFL Offensive Rook of the Year honors.

Frankie Taddeo

Bengals rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase literally caused millions of dollars in fantasy football leagues to exchange hands thanks to his explosive performance in Week 17. In the match-up against the Chiefs, Chase finished with 11 catches for 266 yards (single-game rookie record) and three touchdowns, which amounted to 55.6 points in the P.P.R format.

Now he has a chance to reward all that bet on him to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award as he passed Patriots quarterback Mac Jones as the odds on favorite for OROY.

Chase was asked by Sports Illustrated's MMQB analyst Albert Breer of the MMQB if he should win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

His response? 

“I better be.”

Ja'Marr Chase celebrates a touchdown.
Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Heading to Week 17, I was already counting my money, as oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook had Patriots quarterback Mac Jones listed as an overwhelming prohibitive favorite at odds of -800. Nine months ago, I shared Jones at odds of +1200 as my Best Bet to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:

BEST BET: Mac Jones (+1200)

All bettors should always look to do research into other betting markets before making futures wagers. In this instance, it's imperative to see what the oddsmakers are projecting for New England season win totals. In this case, the Patriots are listed at 9.5 wins and there are strong rumors that Jones has been having an impressive rookie mini-camp. What every bettor should take away from the rumblings, is that Belichick may very well hand the ball to his new prized quarterback sooner than most are expecting...If Newton struggles, bettors could be looking at a double-digit steal if Jones is handed the ball early in 2021 to pilot Belichick’s offense.

As I also outlined months ago, historically, it makes sense for bettors to invest in the one position that has dominated the prestigious accolade in recent years: quarterback.

Since 2000, running backs and quarterbacks have dominated the award - winning 18 times. Signal-callers have won at a 60-percent clip over the last five years as Dak Prescott (2016), Kyler Murray (2019) and Justin Herbert (2020) have joined running backs Alvin Kamara (2017) and Saquon Barkley (2018).

We often hear about first-year players hitting the proverbial “rookie wall” and regressing as their first season in the NFL moves along. Apparently, two stellar offensive standouts in 2021: Jones and Chase missed the memo.

Mac Jones (Alabama) with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the New England Patriots as the number 15 overall pick in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft at First Energy Stadium.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

The former Alabama standout leads all rookie signal-callers in completion percentage (67.6%), passing yards (3,540), touchdown passes (21), and most of all wins (10).

The Patriots finished last season at 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But Jones has been instrumental in New England turning things around so quickly in year two of the post-Brady era. Heading into the final week of the season, with a potential AFC East crown in the balance, is yet another amazing feat witnessed by NFL fans from Foxborough. 

New England, who has split their two meetings with Buffalo, are tied atop the division with 10 wins but it’s the Bills who are massive favorites to win the division thanks to holding the tie-breaker advantage of possessing a better record within the AFC East (Buffalo 4-1, New England 3-2). Buffalo (-17), the largest favorite on the board in Week 18 against the 4-12 New York Jets, will likely prevent the Patriots from attaining the 23rd divisional title in franchise history.

Chase’s unreal stat line of 11/266/3 against Kansas City this past Sunday now has him in a position to join Odell Beckham (2014), Percy Harvin (2009), and Anquan Boldin (2003) as the only wideouts to garner the award since 2000. The unreal performance also paved the way for the former LSU standout to set a new benchmark for NFL rookie receiving yards in a season. Chase’s 1,429 receiving yards broke Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (1,400) rookie record set last season. 

The explosive wideout, who posted 13-plus PPR fantasy points in his first eight games of his NFL career, failed to top 72 receiving yards in Weeks 8 - 13. Appearing to break out of his funk in Week 14 against the 49ers with five receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns, the rookie disappointed many fantasy managers in the first week of the fantasy playoffs with just one catch for 13 yards against Denver. However, in Week 16 he responded with seven receptions for 125 yards against Baltimore as an appetizer for the “Chase Apocalypse”. For those keeping score at home, the rookie wide receiver amassed 75.1 PPR fantasy points over the final two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs. Simply incredible.

Heading into the final week of the season, the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook now have Chase (-250) listed as a considerable favorite over Jones (+190) to take home the hardware. I am holding out hope that despite his phenomenal 55.6 P.P.R. fantasy point outburst in Week 17, voters will focus on the surrounding talent in regards to each of Chase and Jones' rookie accomplishments.

Chase was afforded the luxury of playing alongside star wideout Tee Higgins as well as superb pass-catching running back Joe Mixon. Their presence, combined with veteran Tyler Boyd demanding attention from the slot, prevented opposing defenses from rolling coverage in his direction often resulting in single-man coverage opportunities throughout the season. 

Meanwhile, Jones accomplished what Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields (all drafted ahead of him in April’s NFL Draft) were unable to - lead his club to the postseason. Jones guided a New England team, void of any Pro Bowl offensive players, to not only surpass oddsmakers preseason win total projection of 9.5 but most of all - led a revival of the "Patriot Way" which resulted in a return trip back to the playoffs.

Is Jones' impressive accomplishment of helping the Patriots get back to the post-season enough to make him the third consecutive quarterback to win Offensive Rookie of the Year or will Chase become the first wide receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 to claim the award? We'll find out when the NFL hosts their Honors Awards on the night before the Super Bowl.

For the latest odds for the NFL Awards including MVP and Coach of the year, check out SI Sportsbook.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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