Wild-Card Weekend Betting Preview and Best Bet: Steelers-Chiefs

Analysis and a best bet for this weekend's wild-card matchup featuring the Steelers hosting the Chiefs.

Sunday night’s wild-card weekend primetime matchup features an AFC showdown when Ben Roethlisberger leads the Steelers into Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

No. 7 Pittsburgh, who finished in second place in the AFC North with a 9-7-1 Straight Up (SU) record, disappointed NFL bettors after posting an 8-9 against the spread (ATS) mark. The Steelers, who are 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road, will commence their playoff quest to send Hall of Fame-bound quarterback Ben Roethlisberger off into the sunset with a potential third Super Bowl ring.

Check wild-card weekend Lines at SI Sportsbook

Kansas City earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC after winning the AFC West. The Chiefs, who finished with a 12-5 SU record, burned NFL bettors with an 8-9 ATS mark. Kansas City heads into the postseason the hottest team in the league, having won nine of their last 10 games.

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The immediate question for bettors is easy: Do you want to back Big Ben in potentially his last game in Black and Gold to accomplish what he couldn’t three weeks ago or lay the biggest point spread demand of the wild-card round with a Chiefs squad that only covered the number 47% of the time in the regular season?

Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports

No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS)

Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers +12.5 (-110) | Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (+500) | Kansas City (-700)
Total: 46– Over (-110) | Under 46 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: PIT 41 % | KC 59%
Game Info: Sunday Jan. 16, 2022 8:15 pm EST | CBS

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has held steady since its opener in favor of Kansas City (12-5 SU; 8-9 ATS) over Pittsburgh (9-7-1 SU; 8-9 ATS) as 12.5-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook.

On paper, this game looks like a complete mismatch and deserving of a double-digit spread. If Pittsburgh cannot control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines, it could get ugly as it did three weeks ago when the Chiefs defeated the Steelers 36-10 as 10.5-point home favorites.

Pittsburgh, who owns the NFL's fourth-worst rushing offense (93.1 rushing yards per game), will need to find success against a Kansas City defense that surrendered the 12-most rushing yards per game (117.6) in the regular season. On the ground, the Steelers' offensive attack is driven by rookie Najee Harris who finished fourth among all NFL running backs with 1,200 rushing yards. In addition, Harris was phenomenal working out of the backfield, as the versatile talent led all running backs in receptions (74) in his first season in the league. When the two clubs met in Week 16, Harris gained 93 yards on the ground while adding five receptions for 17 yards in the air.

Wideouts Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and tight end Pat Freiermuth are the club's top offensive weapons in the passing attack. Johnson, who finished tied for fifth among all wideouts in receptions (107), led the Steelers in receiving yards (1,161) and eight touchdowns. In Week 16, Johnson hauled in six of nine targets for 51 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs. Pittsburgh missed rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth (concussion) in the first meeting, as the former Penn State standout is more than just a security blanket for Roethlisberger over the middle, ranking among the team leaders in receptions (60), receiving yards (497) and touchdowns (7).

David Zalubowski/AP

On the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes piloted a high-powered offensive attack that finished eighth in the NFL, scoring at 21.4 points per game. Mahomes, who finished fourth in the NFL in passing yards (4,839) and fourth in passing touchdowns (37), will face a Steelers defense that has surrendered the ninth-fewest passing yards (215.1) per game. The electrifying signal-caller was operating at his best down the final stretch of the regular season, throwing for two-plus touchdowns in each of the final five games of the regular season. In the first meeting with Pittsburgh, Mahomes faced minimal resistance throwing for 258 yards and three touchdowns.

In the passing game, Kansas City employs an elite tandem of wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Hill, who finished third among all wide receivers in receptions (111), has slumped over the last three games with a combined total of nine receptions for 61 yards and no touchdowns. Among those disappointments is Pittsburgh’s first matchup in Week 16, where he only hauled in two passes for 19 yards. The Chiefs will need the explosive wide receiver to make an impact to open up lanes in the running game. Travis Kelce, who has posted 34 or fewer receiving yards in four of his last five games, missed the first game against Pittsburgh due to COVID-19 protocols.

Darrel Williams will likely lead the Chiefs’ rushing attack as Clyde Edwards-Helaire is questionable due to a shoulder injury. The fourth-year back took over for Edwards-Helaire’s injury against Pittsburgh and went on to finish the regular season as the team’s rushing leader (558) and rushing touchdowns (6). The veteran also excels in the passing game finishing fifth on the club in receiving yards (452). Williams could be in line for major production against Pittsburgh’s 32nd rank rush defense that allows 146.1 rushing yards per game.

No reason to overthink this investment. Best quarterback: Kansas City. Best offensive weapons: Kansas City. Better defense: Kansas City. Home Field: Kansas City. Need a solid betting trend as well? OK. In the NFL wild-card history, home teams favored by 10-plus points by oddsmakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS. Yep, that seals it.

BET: Kansas City -12.5 (-110)

SI BET REVIEW

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS / Props 16-12 +5.75 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 45-37 ATS & Props +11.12 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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