Divisional Round Betting Odds, Trends, Breakdown and Pick: 49ers-Packers

Analysis and a best bet for Saturday's divisional round matchup featuring the red-hot 49ers against the NFC's top-seeded Packers.

The NFL divisional round action heats up on Saturday night when Aaron Rodgers and the NFC’s top-seeded Packers play host to Jimmy Garoppolo and the red-hot 49ers.

No. 6 San Francisco, following their 23-17 upset of Dallas in the wild-card round, are now 11-7 straight-up (SU), which has helped NFL bettors turn a profit by posting a 10-8 against the spread (ATS) mark. The 49ers, who are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road, will look to continue that success when they head to Wisconsin this weekend.

The 49ers have now won eight of their last 10 games overall.

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The Packers, who won the NFC North with a 13-4 (SU) record, were also massively profitable for bettors to support with an astounding 12-5 ATS mark. The Packers, who are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home, have dominated opponents at Lambeau this season.

The question bettors must answer in this matchup is easy: Can the 49ers, who just held Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to only 17 points, now hold Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers down? Do you want to fade the likely league MVP who has not only covered the spread at an astounding 88% clip at home this season, but also possesses an amazing 15-3 SU (.833) record over his last 18 home games?

In Week 3, when the two clubs met in the regular season, the Packers emerged with a 30-28 win on the road as 3.5-point underdogs. As we can see, oddsmakers have made a massive adjustment to their September power rankings, moving Green Bay to sizable favorites for Saturday’s second meeting.

Aaron Gash/AP

No. 6. San Francisco 49ers (11-7) at No. 1 Green Bay Packers (13-4)

Spread: San Francisco +6 (-110) | Green Bay -6 (-110)
Moneyline: San Francisco (+205) | Green Bay (-250)
Total: 47.5 – Over (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: SF 39% | GB 61%
Game Info: Saturday Jan. 22, 2022 | 8:15 p.m. ET | FOX
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has ticked up since the opener of Green Bay (13-4 SU; 12-5 ATS) as 4.5-point home favorites over San Francisco (11-7 SU; 10-8 ATS) to a 6-point demand at SI Sportsbook. The total which opened at 47.5 has remained unchanged in early wagering.

San Francisco, who amassed 169 rushing yards last week, will face a Green Bay defense that allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game (109.1) in the regular season.

On the ground, the 49ers' offensive attack is anchored by Elijah Mitchell, who led the team with 96 rushing yards and a touchdown in the victory over Dallas. In addition, San Francisco once again effectively employed leading wideout Deebo Samuel in the backfield, and the versatile talent delivered for the club rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown while also adding in three receptions for 38 yards in the passing game.

In the passing attack, Samuel is joined by wideout Brandon Aiyuk and star tight end George Kittle as the club’s additional offensive weapons. Aiyuk has emerged as the club's top target in the passing game over the last three games, leading the team in both receptions and receiving yards. Kittle, who produced immense production in Weeks 13-15, averaging 8.3 receptions and 141.6 receiving yards, struggled once again in the wild-card round against the Cowboys. The veteran has failed to produce consistent production over the last four games, recording a paltry eight receptions for 69 receiving yards combined. The 49ers will not advance to the NFC Championship without significant production from Kittle against a Green Bay defense that surrendered eight receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

Tony Gutierrez/AP

On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers leads an explosive Packers offensive attack that finished 10th in the NFL in scoring at 26.5 points per game. Rodgers, who finished 10th in the NFL in passing yards (4,115) and fourth in passing touchdowns (37), will face a 49ers defense that has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards (206.5) per game. The outstanding signal caller, who is poised to win league MVP honors for the fourth time in his career, has not thrown an interception since Week 10. In fact, Rodgers has thrown the fewest interceptions (4) of any quarterback in the NFL this season. In the Week 3 matchup with San Francisco, the veteran signal caller threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns.

In the passing game, Rodgers possesses arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams. The explosive veteran finished second among all wide receivers in receptions (123), third in receiving yards (1,553) and fifth in touchdowns (15). In the regular season meeting, Adams absolutely dominated the 49ers' secondary, hauling in 12 of 18 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. Fellow wideout Allen Lazard has emerged as Green Bay’s clear WR2 in the offensive attack. The third-year wideout, who continues to gain the trust of Rodgers with every passing week, has caught eight touchdowns over his last 10 games.

The Green Bay run-game is a two-headed attack led by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The hard-running Dillon finished as the team leader in rushing (803) and rushing touchdowns (5) but it’s Jones who is relied upon as the starter thanks to his versatility in the passing game. Jones led the backfield tandem in receptions (52), receiving yards (391) and total touchdowns (10). Both players are capable of pounding the ball inside the tackles as well as making defenders miss in space. However, both running backs will be hard pressed to find success on the ground against a San Francisco run defense that has not allowed an opposing running back to top 58 rushing yards over the last six games. In fact, only Jonathan Taylor (107) of the Colts was able to rush for more than 100 yards in a game this season against the NFL’s seventh-best run defense.

Rumors are swirling that injuries to both Garoppolo’s hand and shoulder are worse than what the team is disclosing. If the 49ers are forced to employ rookie Trey Lance under center on Saturday night, this game could result in an easy victory and cover for the Packers. Besides beating the betting line at an astounding 71% this season, Green Bay is an impressive 8-2 ATS this season when listed as favorites. Rodgers is simply on a mission to make his fifth career NFC Championship game appearance and the 49ers will be unable to deny that goal.

BET: Green Bay -5.5 (-120) (Buy the half-point)

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Wild-Card weekend did not get off on the right foot as the Raiders (+6) came up a few yards shy of back-dooring the Bengals and the Cowboys (-3) simply could not overcome tying the NFL record for most penalties (14) in a playoff game against the 49ers. The two total plays went 0-1-1 as Buffalo simply crushed my under (44) wager - playing a ‘flawless’ offensive game against New England, while a late two-point conversion by Philadelphia took my under wager (46) from a win to a push. My weekend closed out strong as Kansas City (-12.5) dominated as my lock of the weekend and the Rams (-4) came through in solid fashion hammering the Cardinals.

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS / Props 16-12 +5.75 units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 2-3-1 ATS -1.30 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 47-40-1 ATS & Props +9.82 units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst who provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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