NBA Spread, Over/Under and Prop Bets: Hawks-Celtics, Warriors-Timberwolves
NBA teams are back in the swing of things after a flurry of exciting games over the weekend.
Some teams had notable slip-ups over the weekend, including the Celtics, who were blown out by the Pacers, and the Warriors, who were outclassed at home by the Mavericks. Both teams are in action Tuesday night.
Two conference games between playoff- (or play-in) - bound teams are the focus of Tuesday’s ‘SO/UP’ (Spread, Over/Under, Prop) Bets.
The Celtics host the Hawks to conclude the season series, which Atlanta leads 2-1, and the Warriors head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. SI Betting Editor Matt Ehalt joins me to make bets.
Season record: 94-100-2
Guest pickers: 75-109
Check the Latest NBA Spreads and Odds at SI Sportsbook
John Bazemore/AP
Atlanta Hawks (29-31) vs. Boston Celtics (26-27)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Hawks +6.5 (+100) | Celtics -6.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Hawks (+225) | Celtics (-275)
Total: Under 226.5 (-110) | Over 226.5 (-110)
Injuries: Hawks F John Collins—Out; Hawks G Lou Williams—Day-to—Day
Hawks Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 27-33
O/U Record: 33-27
Points Per Game/Rank: 112.4/8
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 111.6/19
Atlanta thrashed the Raptors by 27 points over the weekend behind a dazzling 41-point, 11-assist outing from Trae Young. That came a few days after the Hawks dropped a close game that would’ve been a signature road win versus the Bulls. Atlanta has picked things up over the last month and a half, battling to get to .500.
Celtics Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 8-2
ATS Record: 30-31-2
O/U Record: 28-34-1
Points Per Game/Rank: 109.2/17
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 103.9/4
Boston is still in the midst of its best stretch of basketball this season despite a few head-scratching, momentum-killing losses. The Celtics fell to the Pacers on the road by 21 points Sunday on the second night of a back-to-back. And before the All-Star break, the C’s dropped a home game to the Pistons to end their nine-game win streak.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Celtics -6.5
I’m expecting Boston to bounce back from Sunday in a big way. The C’s defend their home court well (20-11). Atlanta, on the other hand, doesn’t travel well (11-18). The Celtics beat the Hawks, 105-95, at home two weeks ago in a game where Young still tallied 30 points and 10 assists. This is a bet primarily on Boston’s terrific defense, and it certainly helps that the Hawks’ second-leading scorer and rebounder John Collins will miss this game.
Over/Under Pick: Under 226.5
Boston games are typically very low-scoring affairs. When these teams last met, they combined for just 200 points. Of course, an offense like Atlanta’s can overcome great team defense with someone as individually talented as Young running the show, but the season series points to this being another grind-it-out game. When the Hawks won the second meeting, 200 points on the dot were scored in that game as well, a 108-92 Atlanta win.
Prop: Robert Williams Over 10.5 Rebounds (+116)
I really like the plus-odds on Williams to match his January and February rebounding average against an undermanned Hawks team that’s not typically great on the boards anyway. Williams grabbed 14 points in his most recent appearance against Atlanta and snagged 10 earlier in the season series. He’s gone over this figure in six of his last 10 games and there’s some juice here to sweeten the deal.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Celtics -6.5
The Celtics, aside from a misstep here and there, are playing great basketball. The Hawks are not great at covering and this one is in Boston tonight. I like Boston's chances to cover here, especially given they beat the Hawks at home by 10 on Feb. 13.
Over/Under Pick: Under 226.5
Each of the Celtics' last four home games have gone under and I'm not sure Trae Young can get this one over 226.5. The teams scored only 200 in that meeting a little more than two weeks ago, and Boston's defense is one of the best in the league.
Prop: Trae Young Under 27.5 points (-106)
Trae Young is great, but he's only topped this mark once in three tries against the Celtics. He also has failed to do so three times in his last four games (granted, if we move the goalposts, it's three in six times). I think the C's can keep him in check.
Jeff Chiu/AP
Golden State Warriors (43-18) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (33-29)
Time: 8 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Warriors -1.5 (+100) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Warriors (-118) | Timberwolves (+100)
Total: Under 232.5 (-110) | Over 232.5 (-110)
Injuries: Warriors G Klay Thompson—Out; Warriors F Draymond Green—Out; Warriors F Andre Iguodola—Out; Timberwolves G Malik Beasley—Day-to-Day
Warriors Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 5-5
ATS Record: 30-27-4
O/U Record: 25-34-2
Points Per Game/Rank: 110.8/10
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 103.6/3
Golden State has lost five of its last seven games, hitting one of its roughest patches of the season. The Mavericks beat the Warriors by six on Sunday at the Chase Center and, before that, the Dubs lost two of their last three road games.
Timberwolves Profile
Record Over Last 10 Games: 6-4
ATS Record: 32-29-1
O/U Record: 38-24
Points Per Game/Rank: 113.3/6
Points Allowed Per Game/Rank: 112.3/23
Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, fresh off a close win over the Cavaliers. February was a good month for the T-Wolves, who are slowly but surely getting up and over the .500 record they flirted with for much of the season.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Timberwolves +1.5
I’m very, very tempted to take the Warriors. The Timberwolves are 3-7 on the second night of back-to-backs this season. And Golden State has a nearly identical road record to Minnesota’s home record. Klay Thompson being ruled out for a second consecutive game is making me go with the T-Wolves. The Warriors have been very beatable over the last few weeks and were held to 101 points at home last time out. Minnesota is no Dallas defensively, but the T-Wolves can certainly exploit a Warriors team (and defense) with no Draymond Green or Thompson.
Over/Under Pick: Over 231.5
Minnesota games go over at the highest rate in the NBA. Good offense, bad defense is a great recipe for that record. Conversely, Golden State games go under at one of the lowest frequencies. The first three games between these teams, featuring two Warriors' win, saw an average of 230 points scored. I think the Timberwolves dictate the pace and this game gets up and down quickly with lots of points scored.
Prop: Kevon Looney Over 8.5 Rebounds (-106)
The Timberwolves are a below-average rebounding team and with James Wiseman and Green still not back on the court for the Warriors, Looney is the leader on the boards. He’s gone over this figure in three of his last five games, despite his season average of 7.6 rebounds. Notably, he’s grabbed six, 12 and 17 rebounds against Minnesota this season.
Guest picker Matt Ehalt’s Bets:
Spread Pick: Warriors -1.5
I'm going with a Warriors team coming off a tough home loss with a day to digest it all against an OK Timberwolves team on the second night of a back-to-back. Minnesota beat Golden State in Minnesota earlier this year, but the Warriors get the job done.
Over/Under Pick: Under 231.5
Minnesota being on the second night of a back-to-back has me thinking they won't be as sharp, leading to a lower-scoring game. The Warriors already tend to pull their opponents below the projections and I believe that will happen tonight.
Prop: D'Angelo Russell Under 19.5 points (-108)
D'Angelo Russell is hot, but he's failed to clear this mark in all three games against the Warriors this year. He's averaging just 11 points (8, 7, 18) against his former team. So, yes, I'm going to bet against him going over this mark based on those numbers.
DFS Value Plays
(Prices based on 7 p.m. main slate)
PG/ Reggie Jackson, Clippers (FD: $7,000 | DK: $8,500)
SF/SG Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves ($6,600 | $5,600)
SF Saddiq Bey, Suns ($6,300 | $6,400)
SF/PF Jae’Sean Tate, Rockets ($6,100 | $6,800)
C Ivica Zubac, Clippers ($5,800 | $8,400)
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting, Fantasy and NBA:
• Betting advice: NBA Championship
• NBA MVP Future Odds
• Super Bowl LVII Future Odds
• NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
• Five 2022 Fantasy Football Questions
• Five X-Factors That Could Decide The East
