NCAA Men’s Basketball Bets: Patriot League Final, Plus ACC, Big East, Pac-12 Games

Bets and analysis for ACC, Big East and Pac-12 tournament games, along with the Patriot League championship game.

The NCAA tournament picture is becoming clearer each day. Now, 11 teams have punched their tickets to college basketball’s biggest stage and another auto bid is up for grabs in the Patriot League this evening when Navy takes on Colgate.

Elsewhere in the college hoops world: The Big East, Pac-12, Big-12, Big Ten and SEC conference tournaments begin Wednesday, while the ACC Tournament continues after three games occurred Tuesday.

Conference tournament betting previews: Big Ten|ACC|Big East|Big 12|Pac-12|SEC

The lengthy slate of games can be dizzying, so here’s a breakdown of how to bet four of Wednesday’s top games, three of which have huge NCAA Tournament implications.

Check the Latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds at SI Sportsbook

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Patriot League championship game: Navy (21-10, 2 Seed) vs. Colgate (22-11, 2 seed)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | CBSSN
Spread: Navy +6.5 (-118) | Colgate -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Navy (+220) | Colgate (-333)
Over/Under: Under 127.5 (-110) | Over 127.5 (-118)

The last time Navy went dancing was 1998. Colgate is the barrier between the Midshipmen having a nice season and ending that 24-year tournament drought.

The Raiders swept the regular season series, winning 69-50 in mid-January on the road and 74-69 just two weeks ago at home in the regular-season finale.

Each team’s approach to winning is diametrically opposed. Navy’s offense is outside the top 300 on KenPom but its defense comes in at No. 55, allowing less than 60 PPG. Colgate has a top-100 offense on KenPom, thanks to its 40% mark from three-point range, the second-best mark nationally. The Raiders’ defense does well to negate that advantage, though, coming in outside the top-200 on KenPom.

The edge in this matchup goes to Colgate given how the first two meetings went and each team’s recent play. Navy needed overtime to beat Boston University, 85-80, and make it to the championship game. The Midshipmen are 3-2 over their last five.

The Raiders enter Wednesday winners of their last 14 games dating to late January, and they won each of their Patriot League tournament games by 20-plus points.

I like that Colgate has five scorers (and shooters) it can rely on to get buckets against Navy’s tight defense. The Raiders should come out victorious and head to their third consecutive NCAA tournament, whether or not their outside shots fall—they beat Navy by 19 while hitting just three three-pointers early in the year and by five when they connected on 12 outside shots a few weeks ago.

I’m still picking Navy to cover, though. Its offensive output has improved in recent games thanks to some outsized individual scoring efforts, and the Midshipmen covered +7.5 on the road last time against Colgate. I think Navy keeps it close enough to make the Raiders sweat, and I’m also in on the over.

BET: Navy +6.5, Over 127.5

Adrian Kraus/AP

ACC second round: Syracuse (15-16, 9 seed) vs. Florida State (17-13, 8 seed)

Time: 12 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Syracuse +1.5 (-110) | Florida State -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Syracuse (+100) | Florida State (-125)
Over/Under: Under 146.5 (-118) | Over 146.5 (-110)

The road team won each matchup between these teams this season in a down year for two typical ACC powers. Syracuse won, 63-60 , n Tallahassee in December and Florida State won, 76-71, in central New York in January.

Neither team is tournament-bound barring a magical run in the conference bracket.

The Orange limp into the Barclays Center as losers of four straight against the ACC’s best teams: Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Miami. Syracuse’s strength is its offense, ranked 21st on KenPom and led by Buddy Boheim’s 19.3 PPG. Defense, usually the hallmark of a Jim Boheim-coached team, is its weakness. They allow more than 75 PPG to opponents and their defense ranks outside the top 200 on KenPom.

The Seminoles don’t do any one thing particularly great—besides stealing the ball. FSU barely has a positive point differential, its offense is 124th on KenPom and its defense ranks 95th. If Florida State has one thing going for it, it’s momentum. The ‘Noles rattled off three wins in a row to end the season .500 in conference play.

It’s difficult to find an edge for either team in this one, so I’m going with the offense that can put points up in a hurry: Syracuse. The Orange lost their last two games, but Cole Swider and Buddy Boheim each eclipsed 30 points in one of them. No Syracuse player broke 20 in the two regular season meetings. If a few shooters can get hot from outside, I think the Orange can win a track meet with the Seminoles.

BET: Syracuse +1.5, Over 146.5

Frank Franklin II/AP

Big East first round: Butler (13-18, 9 seed) vs. Xavier (18-12, 8 seed)

Time: 4:30 p.m. | FS1
Spread: Butler +6 (-110) | Xavier -6 (-118)
Moneyline: Butler (+200) | Xavier (-300)
Over/Under: Under 131.5 (-118) | Over 131 (-110)

Butler has seen better days. So has Xavier, but the Musketeers have a shot to sneak into the tournament depending on how they fare at Madison Square Garden.

Xavier really put a lot of pressure on its Big East tournament performance after dropping seven of its final 10 games following a 15-5 start to the season. The Musketeers swept the Bulldogs in the regular season, scoring an 87-72 win on the road in January and escaping a tight 68-66 affair at home in February.

Butler only averages 63.1 PPG and has one of the worst team field-goal percentages in the country. Two Bulldogs players average double digits for an offense that’s just inside the top 200 on KenPom. Butler is comparatively better on defense, coming in right outside the top 100 on KenPom and allowing 66.5 PPG to opposing teams.

Four Musketeers contribute double-digits points consistently to their top-50 offense on KenPom. Xavier has a positive point differential, averaging 73.7 PPG while yielding 68.6. The team scored a season-best 97 points against hapless Georgetown in the regular-season finale. The Musketeers hit 14 threes in the 22-point win and more than doubled their season average for assists, totaling 32 dimes.

Xavier is the better shooting team, is more disruptive on defense and has more weapons to deploy against Butler. And, most importantly, the Musketeers are still playing for a chance to get back into the Big Dance, something they haven’t done since 2018. I think Xavier wins an ugly game with relative ease.

BET: Xavier -6, Under 131.5

Darryl Webb/AP

Pac-12 first round: Stanford (15-15, 9 seed) vs. Arizona State (14-16, 8 seed)

Time: 3 p.m. ET | Pac-12 Network
Spread: Stanford +4 (-118) | Arizona State -4 (-110)
Moneyline: Stanford (+155) | Arizona State (-200)
Over/Under: Under 128.5 (-110) | Over 128.5 (-118)

Arizona State beat Stanford the last time these teams took the court Saturday. The Sun Devils won, 65-56, at home to even up the season series with the Cardinal and score their fourth consecutive victory (and seven over their last eight).

ASU came back from the brink to finish .500 in conference play after a 2-7 start in the Pac-12. A triple overtime win against then-No. 3 UCLA was the turning point for the Sun Devils, whose defense ranks 21st on KenPom. Arizona is one of 27 teams in DI that holds opponents below 40% from the field. The issue for the Sun Devils is they don’t shoot much better themselves—41.3% and below 30% from three.

Stanford dropped its final five games to limp into postseason play. The Cardinal operate best in low-scoring games with the 84th-best defense per KenPom and an offense that ranks worse than 150. You don’t need any advanced stats to tell you that scoring 39 points against 12-19 California is scraping the bottom of the barrel.

It took one of Stanford’s best performances of the season to beat Arizona State the first time around and I don’t think the Cardinal have that left in them at this point. The Sun Devils don’t have a great offense, but at least they have a balanced offense with a trio of guards who can each give them double digits. Give me ASU laying the points and the under. This will be a defensive battle.

BET: Arizona State -4, Under 128.5

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