NCAA Men’s Basketball Bets: Big East, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten Tournament Games

Bets and analysis for ACC, Big East and Big 12 quarterfinal conference tournament games, along with a second-round game in the Big Ten.

One more NCAA tournament bid was punched Wednesday night. Congratulations to Colgate, who defeated Navy in the Patriot League final.

There aren’t any conference championship games taking place Thursday, but there are some top-tier teams in action and a few games with serious bubble implications for teams teetering on the edge of the tournament.

Conference tournament betting previews: Big Ten | ACC | Big East | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC

Yesterday’s picks got off to a hot start and then tailed off. … Here’s to a better day!

Let’s get into the games.

Check the Latest NCAA Men’s Basketball Odds at SI Sportsbook

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Big Ten second round: Michigan (17–13, 8 seed) vs. Indiana (18–12, 9 seed)

Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | BTN
Spread: Indiana +3 (-118) | Michigan -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Indiana (+125) | Michigan (-161)
Over/Under: Under 136.5 (-118) | Over 136.5 (-110)

Welcome back, Juwan Howard. Michigan’s coach rejoins the team in the Big Ten tournament after serving a five-game suspension for his actions in the handshake line after a loss to Wisconsin in February. They went 3–2 without him and now face an Indiana team they beat, 80–62, on the road in the regular season.

The Wolverines are, for now, on the right side of the bubble after scoring a 75–69 road win over a ranked Ohio State team in the regular-season finale.

Indiana currently sits on the wrong side of the bubble. The Hoosiers lost seven of their last 10 games and their final two. They nearly knocked off No. 8 Purdue on the road Saturday, losing 69–67.

Michigan’s offense ranks among the best in the nation. Led by center Hunter Dickinson, the Wolverines boast the No. 19 unit on KenPom and shoot 47%. Dickinson averages 18.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game and erases 1.5 shots per game. He also anchors UM’s defense down low, which allows just less than 70 ppg.

The Hoosiers’ defense comes in at 19 on KenPom, a perfect foil for Michigan’s offense in this matchup. IU is one of 27 teams in the country that holds opponents below 40% from the field. Indiana’s offense barely sneaks in the top 100 on KenPom and averages just 71.4 ppg. Forward Trayce Jackson-Davis accounts for a large chunk of that—he averages 17.4 ppg and 8.2 rebounds and adds 2.4 blocked shots.

I’m all over the Wolverines in this one. Michigan just needs to avoid blowing its chance against a team it already clobbered on the road this season. I see UM taking control of this game and easily covering a small spread. And, good defense aside, both teams are more than capable of eclipsing the 70 points needed to send this game over.

BET: Michigan -3, Over 136.5

John Minchillo/AP

ACC quarterfinal: Notre Dame (22–9, 2 seed) vs. Virginia Tech (20–12, 7 seed)

Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Spread: Virginia Tech -1 (-125) | Notre Dame +1 (+105)
Moneyline: Virginia Tech (-125) | Notre Dame (+100)
Over/Under: Under 131.5 (-118) | Over 131.5 (-110)

The Hokies live to see another day.

Thanks to Darius Maddox’s late-game heroics, Virginia Tech earned a meeting with second-seeded Notre Dame, a team it beat back in January.

Virginia Tech beat ND in Blacksburg, 79–73, thanks to big scoring nights from Justyn Mutts and Nahiem Alleyne, who combined for 46 points.

The Fighting Irish are 3–2 over their last five with an understandable road loss to Wake Forest and a bad defeat at the hands of Florida State. Notre Dame ranks 35th on KenPom and has a roster full of shooters, who contribute to their very respectable 38% average from deep. Defense is not as big a strength for this team and its counting stats certainly show that—5.2 steals and 1.9 blocks per game.

The Hokies are on the bubble and improved their case by beating Clemson. Beating Notre Dame again, who is also on the bubble, would do a lot to further bolster VT’s case. Virginia Tech ranks just outside the top 25 in offensive efficiency on KenPom and is a very good shooting team from top to bottom. The Hokies shoot 47% from the field (a top-50 mark) and 39% from deep (fourth-best nationally). Their scoring average (69.8 ppg) is not necessarily impressive, but they allow just 61.7 ppg.

I’m going with the hot-handed Hokies. They connected on 12 threes against Clemson and an exciting win is something a team can build on and carry over to the next round. They’ve already defeated the Fighting Irish. They can do it again in March.

BET: Virginia Tech ML, Over 131.5

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 quarterfinal: No. 14 Texas Tech (23–8, 3 seed) vs. Iowa State (20–11, 6 seed)

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Spread: Iowa State +7.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -7.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Iowa State (+250) | Texas Tech (-376)
Over/Under: Under 1256 (-118) | Over 126 (-110)

Both of these programs are NCAA tournament-bound in the deep Big 12 despite stumbling toward the end of the regular season.

Iowa State lost its final two games to Oklahoma State and Baylor (not that there’s any shame in losing to the Bears) and dropped six of its final 10 overall. Texas Tech was defeated in two of its last three games, falling to TCU and Oklahoma State as well.

These teams split the season series 1–1: The Cyclones won in Ames, 51–47, and the Red Raiders came out on top in Lubbock, 72–60.

Texas Tech boasts the top overall defensive efficiency ranking on KenPom. The Red Raiders allow a little more than 60 ppg to opponents, the 13th-best mark nationally, and hold opposing teams below 40% from the field. TTU holds up on offense with the 52nd-ranked unit on that side of the ball, led by forward Bryson Williams’s 14 ppg.

Defense is also what keeps Iowa State afloat—the Cyclones come in at No. 10 defensively on KenPom, while their offense ranks outside the top 125. ISU is also top 25 in scoring defense, yielding 62.7 ppg to opponents. Iowa State’s offense goes through guard Izaiah Brockington, who leads the team in scoring (17.5 ppg) and rebounding (7.2). He combined for just 24 points on 9–30 shooting in the team’s back-to-back losses, though, and he shot poorly in both meetings with Texas Tech.

This game will be dominated by defense. These teams combined for just 98 points in the first meeting. Iowa State was recently held to 36 points at home and Texas Tech managed just 51 in its last game. In what I expect to be a low-scoring game, I don’t think the Red Raiders pull away enough to cover this spread.

BET: Iowa State +7.5, Under 126

Jessica Hill/AP

Big East quarterfinal: No. 20 UConn (22–8, 3 seed) vs. Seton Hall (21–9, 6 seed)

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Spread: Seton Hall +4 (-118) | UConn -4 (-110)
Moneyline: Seton Hall (+145) | UConn (-200)
Over/Under: Under 135 (-118) | Over 135 (-110)

Since losing to UConn on Feb. 16, Seton Hall has won six straight. The Huskies closed out the season strong as well, winning four of their last five.

These two tournament teams split the season series: The Pirates won at home, 90–87, in overtime behind a season-best 27 points from Kadary Richmond. UConn scored a 70-65 home win on the back of a 20-point, 16-rebound outing from Adama Sanogo.

Seton Hall survives on its defensive prowess. The Pirates have a respectable offense—they average 73.6 ppg, led by Jared Rhoden’s 16.2 ppg, but shoot just 42.5% from the floor as a team. Their defense ranks 28th on KenPom and holds teams below 41% from the field and under 31% from three.

Connecticut is much more balanced. Its offense comes in at No. 24 on KenPom and its defense ranks 35th. R.J. Cole leads the Huskies in scoring (15.8 ppg), assists (4.1) and steals (1.2). UConn is one of the top rebounding teams in the country despite not employing a traditional center. Three players—two of whom are guards—average more than seven boards per game.

I’m confident in Connecticut’s ability to overcome Seton Hall’s defensive pressure and approach or breach its average in the high 70s. It took a career day out of Richmond  and overtime in the first meeting for the Pirates to beat the Huskies at home. UConn has more players that can beat Seton Hall’s defense and more ways they can do so. Give me the Huskies.

BET: UConn -4, Over 135

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