Cavaliers-Nets, Clippers-Timberwolves NBA Play-in Tournament Bets
The second annual NBA play-in tournament tips off Tuesday night and there are All-Stars taking the court in both conferences with playoff spots up for grabs.
In the East, the Nets’ Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are hosting the Cavaliers, led by Most Improved candidate Darius Garland. Cleveland will be without All-Star Jarrett Allen, but it does have former All-Star (and Irving teammate) Kevin Love off the bench.
Out West, the Timberwolves, who have the best record of any play-in team, welcome the Clippers to Minnesota. In a game with stars like Karl-Anthony Towns and Paul George on the floor, former Clipper Patrick Beverly is just as likely to make an impact.
Regular season record: 117-113-2
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Bebeto Matthews/AP
No. 8 Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38) vs. No. 7 Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
Time: 7 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Cavaliers +9.5 (-110) | Nets -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers (+375) | Nets (-500)
Total: Under 227.5 (-110) | Over 227.5 (-110)
The Cavaliers will be without Allen, which puts their defense at a huge disadvantage and gives Brooklyn an even bigger rebounding edge. Allen (finger) hasn’t played since March 6, but the Cavaliers did recently get Evan Mobley (ankle) back so they won’t be playing without a big man—they just won’t have their oversized frontcourt to bother Irving and Durant in the paint and contend with Andre Drummond on the glass.
Brooklyn won the season series, 3-1. These teams played Friday in a true preview of Tuesday night’s game—Mobley played, Allen didn’t and Seth Curry (ankle) toughed it out. The Nets won, 118-107, and covered the nearly identical 8.5-point spread in that contest. Durant went for 36 points and Brooklyn out-rebounded Cleveland, 45-31.
Pre- and post-All-Star numbers tell the story of two different Nets and Cavaliers teams. Brooklyn has had Irving and Durant available more consistently since the break and its offensive rating ranks seventh since late February as opposed to 12th before.
Its defensive improvement is negligible in that sample size, going from 19th to 18th. The Cavs have the near-identical offensive ratings post-All-Star but their defense ranked fourth before the break and 24th since.
Cleveland had the surprise season it did because of its defensive prowess. Darius Garland is fully capable of facilitating a big offensive showing. He’ll need some help from Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen and Cedi Osman on that side of the ball to do so, though, primarily with their outside shooting.
Brooklyn is fully susceptible to teams scoring plenty of points with ease on its defense—it allowed 126 points in an important home game against the Pacers on Sunday.
In a game like this, Durant and Irving can be penciled in for 60-plus combined points. I think the star power controls this game and the Nets run away with it late.
BET: Nets -9.5 (-110)
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
No. 8 Los Angeles Clippers (42-40) vs. No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
Time: 9:30 p.m. | TNT
Spread: Clippers +3.5 (-11-) | Timberwolves -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Clippers (+130) | Timberwolves (-154)
Total: Under 230.5 (-110) | Over 230.5 (-110)
Los Angeles won the season series, 3-1, but that shouldn’t be given too much stock. These teams haven’t met since Jan. 3, Minnesota’s only win, and the three games they played before that were across a 10-day span in November. So, it’s been a while.
There is some familiarity in this matchup, primarily with former Clipper and All-NBA antagonist Patrick Beverly, who brought a toughness and attitude to Minnesota that contributed to its massive turnaround this season.
The Timberwolves featured an improved offense led by three All-Star-caliber players. Minnesota leads the NBA in points per game, with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell each averaging more than 18 ppg. The three-point happy offense and a fast pace contribute to their No. 7 offensive rating.
The Clippers have a defense that can make it hard for a team like Minnesota to score. All-NBA forward Paul George leads Ty Lue’s defense, which is full of switchable, long wings like Robert Covington, Marcus Morris Sr., Terance Mann and Nic Batum.
L.A.’s team profile is three-and-D wings and it works. The Clippers shoot one of the highest percentages from three and employ the league’s best shooter, Luke Kennard (45%).
Minnesota’s three primary scorers get their points in a variety of ways. Towns can work inside and out, Edwards is a by-any-means-necessary scorer and Russell searches for his shot a little less but is more than capable of exploding on offense. They’ll all make the Clippers work on defense.
I expect a close, high-scoring affair. Minnesota’s defense had some major lapses to close out the year and allowed 127.8 ppg over its last five games. Los Angeles averaged 128 ppg over its final five games—all wins—including a 153-point explosion without George. If any defense can get stops when it counts, it’ll be the Clippers’.
They’ll keep it close if they don’t simply win outright.
BET: Clippers +3.5 (-110)
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