Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral in Round 1? First-Round Over/Under on Quarterbacks Drafted
The NFL Draft is fewer than 10 days away and we all have far more questions than answers. There doesn’t seem to be much consensus on the No. 1 pick, first QB drafted, first RB drafted, first WR drafted, first OL drafted or much else.
Want to get in on the action? Let's take a look at the over/under number of quarterbacks taken in the first round prop over on SI Sportsbook.
Quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 (O/U 2.5)
Vegas thinks three quarterbacks will likely be taken in the first round, and history seems to be on the same side.
Five QBs were taken in the first round of 2021, four in 2020, three in 2019, and five in 2018. The last time fewer than three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round was in 2015.
However, this is the first year since 2018 (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence) that a QB isn't the consensus #1 overall pick. This year's class is comparably light at the QB position.
Let's review the three players expected to be contenders to be taken in the first round.
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Top Rookie Quarterbacks
Willis is currently favored as the first QB drafted at -200 on SI Sportsbook. Willis excites teams with his athleticism. He broke more tackles than any other player on the ground in 2021- including running backs. Willis has incredible arm strength, though his eyes often telegraph his throws, and his mobility is the kind you can build an offense around. Across two seasons with Liberty, Willis threw for 5,162 yards and 48 TDs while adding another 1822 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground.
Pickett has been the starter for Pittsburgh since taking over as a sophomore in 2018, but 2021 was the year he truly broke out. Picket threw for a whopping 4,319 yards and 42 passing TDs. Much has been made of his small hand size measurement at the combine, and some teams could be scared off by the sudden leap he took in his year five season, but Pickett could be the most NFL-ready QB out of the gate. He's currently at +140 odds on SISB to be taken as the first QB overall.
Another excellent athlete, Corral is both mobile and accurate. Corral threw for 6675 yards and 49 TDs across his last two seasons for the Rebels with a 68.8% completion rate. He also added in another 1120 yards and 15 TDs on the ground. There are questions about whether his style of play will translate into the NFL, as he used play-action in 60.4% of his dropbacks in 2021. Corral has +2200 odds to be taken as the first QB overall on SISB.
More QBs: Desmond Ritter, Sam Howell and Carson Strong.
Check NFL Draft Future Odds at SI Sportsbook
QB-needy teams
The Falcons, Lions, Seahawks, Saints, Panthers and Steelers could use a franchise quarterback as a primary need. These teams account for seven of the picks in the first round.
As a secondary need, the Commanders, Texans and Giants should also be looking for a signal-caller. These teams account for five picks in the first round.
Will a team get antsy and trade up to get their guy at a think position? Or will teams wait longer since there aren't a lot of highly-graded QB choices and bolster other positions?
What would you bet?
I wouldn't.
It's likely three QBs get taken in the first round, but not so likely I'm willing to lay $200 to make $100. At +150 for the under, it's not a big enough payout to take the risk.
BET: In a nod to SI's Conor Orr's mock draft, I'd rather take a shot on Matt Corral at +2200 for a big payday.
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