Winners Club: Finals Favorite Suns Look to Take a 3-0 Series Lead on Mavericks Tonight

Plus, NHL playoff lines, Kentucky Derby odds, NFL OROY and DROY picks and more.

Good morning! What a weekend we have ahead. NBA and NHL playoff games, Kentucky Derby 148, the WNBA season opener, UFC 274 and more.

It’s all covered in today’s newsletter—keep reading for news, analysis, picks, odds and more.

Second Round Sweeps?

The 76ers and Mavericks are in dire straits in their respective series, trailing 0-2 without an answer in sight. Philadelphia center Joel Embiid, who has yet to play in the series against the Heat, is listed as out for Game 3. Miami has been too much to handle without Embiid, and the 76ers have lost each game by double digits. And Dallas pulled close near the end of Game 1 after Luka Doncic lit Phoenix up for 45 points, but that wasn't enough. The Mavericks' defense is crumbling against Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton.

The odds of a Miami sweep are +200, the second most likely outcome, and a Phoenix sweep is +260, also the second most likely occurrence.

The other two series, resuming Saturday, have been much more competitive. The Bucks and Warriors stole a game on the road, and now the series shifts to their home courts. Injuries—and now suspensions—have played a part, though. Khris Middleton is out for Games 3 and 4; Marcus Smart, who missed Game 2, is expected to play in Game 3; Dillon Brooks is suspended for Game 3, and Gary Payton II is out for the rest of the Golden State-Memphis series.

Matt York/AP

Friday
7 p.m. ET (ESPN): Heat (-3.5) vs. 76ers | Miami leads series, 2-0

9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): Suns vs. Mavericks (-1.5) | Phoenix leads series, 2-0

Saturday
3:30 p.m. ET (ABC): Celtics vs. Bucks (-1.5) | Series tied, 1-1

8:30 p.m. ET (ABC): Grizzlies vs. Warriors (-6.5) | Series tied, 1-1

Sunday
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): Suns vs. Mavericks

8 p.m. ET (TNT): Heat vs. 76ers

Stanley Cup First Round Update

The opening round is shaping up to be very competitive. Six of the eight playoff series are tied 1-1 through two games. The Avalanche and the Hurricanes are the only two teams that hold 2-0 leads, having won both games at home.

Revisit the Round 1 predictions as the action continues tonight.

Friday
7 p.m. ET (TNT): Hurricanes vs. Bruins (-133) | Carolina leads series, 2-0

7:30 p.m. ET (TBS): Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (-118) | Series tied, 1-1

9:30 p.m. ET (TNT): Wild vs. Blues (-118) | Series tied, 1-1

10 p.m. ET (TBS): Oilers (-143) vs. Kings | Series tied, 1-1

Saturday
1 p.m. ET (ESPN): Panthers (-188) vs. Capitals | Series tied, 1-1

4:30 p.m. ET (TNT): Avalanche (-225) vs. Predators | Colorado leads series, 2-0

7 p.m. ET (TNT): Rangers (-118) vs. Penguins | Series tied, 1-1

9:30 p.m. ET (TNT): Flames (-163) vs. Stars | Series tied, 1-1

Jack Dempsey/AP

Sunday
12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): Hurricanes vs. Bruins

4:30 p.m. ET (TBS): Wild vs. Blues

7 p.m. ET (TBS): Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

10 p.m. ET (TBS): Oilers vs. Kings

What to Make of the NFL Rookies

The draft is still fresh in our minds, and the coverage of the incoming rookie class continues.

Last year's draft made it easier to isolate rookies to prioritize—the first six picks were skill position players: three pass catchers and three quarterbacks. The 2022 draft unfolded a bit differently.

Falcons receiver Drake London was the first receiver off the board at pick No. 8, but he’s not Michael Fabiano’s No. 1 rookie for 2022. See who the top overall rookie is, how the loaded receiver class stacks up and how Fabiano values a quarterback class that the entire league was down on.

Ben Queen/USA TODAY Sports

And while we're on the rookie topic, let's look ahead to NFL awards. Odds are out for offensive and defensive rookies of the year. Below are the three players with the highest odds of earning each honor.

Offensive

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett +500
Titans WR Treylon Burks +750
Falcons WR Drake London +750

Defensive

Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson +450
Giants DE Kayvon Thibodeaux +500
Jaguars DE Travon Walker +600

See our staff picks and explanations for each award winner and find some value in the futures market.

In Other News

Kentucky Derby 148 Betting Profiles: Get the information you need on each horse ahead of Saturday’s big race. Zandon is the favorite at 3-1, but there’s plenty of value in picking a longshot winner.

UFC 274 Betting Preview: Charles Oliveira is the favorite (-167) on Saturday in Phoenix, and he's defending the lightweight title against Justin Gaethje (+140). Get analysis of the fight before you wager on it.

World Series Futures Odds: Surprise, surprise—the Dodgers remain the favorites to win it all. The Yankees' odds have shot up after New York put together an 11-game winning streak. See how the rest of the market looks one month into the season.

USFL Week 4 Bets: The under has been king in three weeks of USFL competition. Will that trend hold this weekend? Get the betting breakdown you need and futures odds for the eight-team league.

WNBA Fantasy Preview: The WNBA season picks up tonight, and so does fantasy women's basketball. Get the info you need for your league before games tip-off.

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That’s all for today. Enjoy your weekend, and I’ll be back in your inbox Monday morning.