White Sox-Yankees, Tigers-Guardians, Padres-Giants Bets

Bets and analysis for Friday’s White Sox-Yankees, Tigers-Guardians and Padres-Giants games.

Heading into the weekend with baseball on your mind? Let’s get in on the action!

We are off to a 15-8 start to the season–and 14 of those wins paid plus-money.

You can also follow my picks on SharpRank throughout the season. Accountability is key, and SharpRank keeps a record of all picks alongside our current rankings among other betting professionals.

Check the Latest MLB Lines and Odds at SI Sportsbook

Chris O’Meara/AP

Tigers (13-25) vs.  Guardians (16-19)

• Moneyline: Tigers (-110) | Guardians (-110)
• Run line: Tigers -1.5 (+145) | Twins +1.5 (-175)
• Total: 8.5 Over (-125) | Under (+105)

The Tigers head to Cleveland with Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.50 ERA) getting the start vs. Aaron Civale (1-3, 9.85 ERA).

Skubal has been fantastic for Detroit this season, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings and yielding only two home runs. Hitters are batting only .231 against him, and Statcast says that number should be even lower (.215).

The Tigers have allowed just 3.2 runs per game over the last week.

Cleveland hitting has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, as the Guardians are batting .245 as a team - the 10th-best mark in the league. However, they have slowed offensively over the last two weeks, batting only .221.

The Guardians have scored just 3.6 runs per game over the last week, and Jose Ramirez, Cleveland’s star 3rd baseman, is banged up and may not play tonight.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale has been a disaster with an ERA over nine and a 5.58 expected ERA. Civale is surrendering an average of more than two home runs per game while walking nearly three batters per nine. However, he also strikes out batters at a rate of nearly ten per nine innings and the Tigers have a 25% K rate since last season. The Tigers are batting .210 across the last two weeks and .222 on the season.

Players to watch:

Skubal has a 5.63 K/BB rate and has surrendered only .45 home runs per nine this year.

Andres Gimenez is hitting .294 versus left-handed pitching this year, and he’s hitting .283 with two home runs in May.

Miguel Cabrera is hitting .302 with three homers versus righties this year, and he’s batting .316 in May with all three of those homers coming this month.

So, how does this all add up? Under 8.5 runs. The Detroit bullpen is strong with the third-lowest ERA in the league and Cleveland’s bullpen should keep them in the game.

I wish the Tigers were plus-money, but I’ll take a coin flip.

BETS: Tigers Moneyline (-110); Under 8.5 (+105)

Padres (24-14) vs. Giants (22-15)

• Moneyline: Padres (+105) | Giants (-125)
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-200) | Giants -1.5 (+165)
• Total: 7.5-Over (-118) | Under (+100)

The Padres head to San Francisco in a tight divisional race for the NL West.

The Friars will send Sean Manaea (2-3, 3.77) to the bump. Manaea has been excellent this season when pitching on the road with an ERA of only 2.70. This current Giants roster has a career 28.3% whiff rate versus Manaea.

Jacob Junis (1-1, 1.74) starts for the Giants. Junis has been extremely lucky to have a 1.74 ERA, as batters are hitting .500 vs. his sinker, which he throws 30% of the time.

Players to watch:

Manny Machado is hitting .355 with seven homers and 23 RBIs this season.

Mike Yastrzemski has gotten hot in May—batting .313 with two home runs. Carl’s grandson is batting .278 vs. southpaws.

The Padres have been sluggish lately, with only six homers in the last two weeks compared to the Giants’ 15. The Giants have the best batting average in the league across the past two weeks, while the Padres are hitting only .227.

But, you know me - I can’t pass up plus-money for the team with the better record and the better pitcher.

BET: Padres Moneyline (+105)

Nam Y. Huh/AP

White Sox (19-19) vs. Yankees (28-10)

• Moneyline: White Sox (+175) | Yankees (-213)
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-110) | Yankees -1.5 (-110)
• Total: 8.5 Under (+100) | Over (-118)
• ***Editor’s Note: This Game Has Been Postponed

Did you know southpaw Dallas Keuchel (2-3, 5.54 ERA) has a career ERA of 2.06 against the Yankees? I know, it sounds unbelievable but it’s true. What’s even more interesting? He has a 2.43 ERA at Yankee stadium.

Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher, and the Yankees are built to hit home runs. Keuchel has only surrendered three homers all season, and none of those were to the Yankees. Keuchel tossed five scoreless innings against the Yankees on May 14.

The Yankees send Nestor Cortes (2-1, 1.35) to the mound and if you haven’t noticed, Nestor is nasty. The White Sox are scoring only 3.5 runs per game on the road, and I’ll be surprised if they score more than three versus Nestor and the Yankee bullpen.

Players to Watch

Giancarlo Stanton has taken Keuchel deep twice in his last 13 plate appearanches against him. Stanton is hitting .293 vs. lefties this year and .333 in May.

Cortes has an expected batting average against of only .192, while striking out batters at a 32.5% clip.

Luis Robert is hot, batting .380 with three homers during May.

There’s no value in taking the Yankees, but I like the value on the under of 8.5 runs despite Aaron Judge being on a tear. Judge has never homered against Keuchel in 21 plate appearances.

BET: Under 8.5 (+100)

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