Yankees-Orioles, Angels-Braves, Rangers-Athletics Plus-Money Bets

Plus-money bets and analysis for Friday’s Yankees-Orioles, Angels-Braves and Rangers-Athletics games.

Baseball is back! And it’s time to get in on the action.

There’s a full slate of games Friday and a lot of good value on the board at SI Sportsbook. I’m going to present a few options, but I urge you to go check out the odds. I think you’ll find plenty of ways to turn a profit Friday. 

If you’re just starting to follow, in my MLB bets series I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets with very little juice. The strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the “risk” is higher, but our bankroll is growing nicely. 

We’re off to a 31-26 start to the season (54%) at SI Sportsbook and 28 of those wins paid plus-money. Last week we went 0-3 with the heavy underdogs, but we’re ready to right the ship Friday night. You can also track all my bets across on SharpRank.  

Bet on MLB at SI Sportsbook

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees (64-30) at Baltimore Orioles (46-46)

Moneyline: Yankees (-163) | Orioles (+138)
Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+100) | Orioles +1.5 (-118)
Total: 8.5 - Over (+100) | Under (-110)

The Yankees roll into Baltimore on Friday with a chip on their shoulder after being swept by the Astros in Houston on Thursday. I don’t usually bet the run line but I am making an exception for Friday’s series opener at Camden Yards.

This bet really has nothing to do with the pitchers involved. In fact, the Orioles have been one of MLB’s hottest teams, going 8-2 in their last ten versus the Yankees’ 3-7.

But you can’t keep a good team down long.

And let’s face it, this Yankees team is good. The Yankees have averaged a league-leading 7.06 runs per game in July and 5.36 runs per game on the season. The Orioles, a good team, have averaged 4.80 in July and 4.20 on the season.     

Yankees starters have the third-best ERA, while Baltimore ranks 23rd. 

Jameson Taillon (10-2, 3.86 ERA) gets the start for the Yanks. Taillon has been solid, though he had a rough July. I’m betting he gets back on track Friday. Taillon does not issue many free passes, so he should be able to keep traffic to a minimum, even though he is not a high-strikeout pitcher. Taillon has a 76% strand rate. 

Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.38) starts for Baltimore and he too is not a strikeout pitcher. He walks twice as many batters per nine innings as Taillon, which could lead to trouble versus a Yankees team with MLB’s best walk rate (10.4%) looking to stay atop the AL. 

Players to Watch

Aaron Judge leads the league in barrels per plate appearance and FB/LD ratio, and is second to only Yordan Alvarez in average exit velocity (95.5) and hard-hit rate (60.8%).

Giancarlo Stanton has the seventh best hard-hit rate (53.5%) and the third-highest average exit velocity (95.1).

Cedric Mullins is hitting .364 with two home runs in 11 career at bats versus Taillon. 

Austin Hays has a 1.273 OPS versus Taillon across 11 career at bats.

I’ll take plus-money for the Yankees to go into Baltimore and start another win streak, winning by at least a two-run margin Friday. 

BET: Yankees -1.5 (+100)

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Angels (39-53) vs. Atlanta Braves (56-38)

Moneyline: Angels (+125) | Braves (-150)
Run line: Angels +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
Total: 7.5 - Over (+105) | Under (-125)

It’s Sho-Time in Atlanta.

How are we going to turn down this value?

Shohei Ohtani (9-4, 2.38) continues his campaign not only for MVP but also for AL Cy Young. The reigning MVP owns a 2.38 ERA and a 12.72 K/9 ratio and is also slashing .258/.348/.486 with 19 home runs, 56 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. Six of his home runs and 38 of his RBIs have come with runners in scoring position, with an OPS of 1.233.

I know the Angels have been sluggish lately, but coming off a break I expect Mike Trout to look a little more like, well … Mike Trout.  

Meanwhile, on the other side, the Atlanta offense has been on fire (4.94 runs per game in July), but Charlie Morton (5-4, 4.45) has not lived up to expectations. In his return from the injury he suffered in the postseason, Morton owns an abysmal 3.36 walk rate with 1.36 home runs allowed per nine. Morton still strikes batters out at a rate of more than 10 per nine innings, so I would take the over on his strikeout prop as the LAA strikeout at the highest clip in the league but he should run into some trouble. 

Players to Watch

Austin Riley was on a tear before the All-Star Break, hitting .400 with nine homers in the first two weeks of July. He is tied with Alvarez for the third-most HR (27).

Matt Olson is batting only .077 in 13 career at bats versus Ohtani.

Trout has the fourth-most home runs with 24. He has a hard-hit rate in the top 1% of the league.

It’s difficult to bet against this Braves’ offense at home but it’s more difficult to bet against Ohtani. 

BET: Angels moneyline (+125)

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Rangers (42-49) vs. Oakland Athletics (33-62)

Moneyline: Texas (-118) | Oakland (+100)
Run line: Texas -1.5 (+155) | Oakland +1.5 (+188)
Total: 7.5 - Over (+100) | Under (-118)

The Rangers will start Spencer Howard on Friday in Oakland. Howard (1-1, 6.97) has been so bad even the Athletics can hit him. 

Yeah, I said it.  

Howard doesn’t strike batters out, walks 3.69 per nine innings and has surrendered 3.48 home runs per nine across six outings (four starts) this year.    

Oakland is sending Cole Irvin to the mound. Irvin (4-7, 3.21) has been good this season but he’s also been a little lucky. Statcast says his expected ERA is 4.71. 

Irvin strikes out less than six batters per nine and, believe it or not, this Texas team is excellent versus lefties. Texas hitters have a .776 OPS (fifth-best in MLB) and have mashed 44 home runs (second only to the Yankees) versus  southpaws.

Texas averaged 5.24 runs per game in the two weeks before the All-Star game (fourth-most), while Oakland averaged 3.71.

I think you can see where this is going…

Players to Watch

Marcus Semien has an OPS of 1.255 versus Irvin across 10 career at bats.

Corey Seager has hit nine of his 22 homers versus lefties. Across the first two weeks of July, Seager hit .355 with seven homers and 17 RBIs.

Sure, games at the Coliseum average only 7.25 runs per game but I’m betting on the over Friday. 

BET: Over 7.5 runs (+100)

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