NBA Championship and Awards Future Odds Two Months From Season Tipoff

With the NBA schedule officially released, here’s where the futures markets currently stand.

Kyle Wood | Aug 17, 2022

After a few weeks of piecemeal leaks, the NBA schedule is out in its entirety.

Opening night tips off Oct. 19 with a 76ers-Celtics and Lakers-Warriors doubleheader (which was already known). Then, there’s the five-game marquee Christmas Day slate (also already out). And the season comes to a close April 9 ahead of the play-in tournament, which is now a permanent fixture in the league.

Now that we know when all 1,230 regular-season games will happen, let’s shift our attention to the futures betting markets with the season starting in two months.

SI Sportsbook has odds available for nearly all of the individual awards—MVP, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year—as well as division winners, conference champions and, of course, NBA champion.

And don’t worry, regular-season win totals will be out soon enough and SI Betting will offer a full breakdown.

But let’s begin with what’s available following an offseason that saw a handful of notable trades and free agent signings, even while the league waits with bated breath for news on the Kevin Durant trade front.

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2023 NBA Championship Odds

Celtics +550
Warriors +600
Suns +600
Bucks +700
Clippers +700
76ers +1400
Heat +1400
Grizzlies +1600
Lakers +1600
Mavericks +1600
Nuggets +2000
Nets +2500
Pelicans +5000
Hawks +5000
Raptors +5000
Bulls +6000
Jazz +6000
Timberwolves +6600
Trail Blazers +10000
Cavaliers +10000
Hornets +12500
Knicks +15000
Spurs +25000
Wizards +50000
Pacers +75000
Pistons +75000
Magic +100000
Thunder +100000
Kings +100000
Rockets +100000

The Celtics (+550) are a narrow favorite to win their first title in more than a decade. Boston came within a few games of doing so in June against the Warriors but lost in six. General manager Brad Stevens addressed his team’s shortcomings by trading for Malcolm Brogdon and signing Danilo Galinari. The C’s kept together the roster that made it to the Finals and should enter the 2022-23 season with it intact, so long as Stevens doesn’t swap a large chunk of it for Durant.

The defending champions are a close second behind Boston. Golden State (+600) lost Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. in the offseason and filled those holes by bringing in Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green. Steve Kerr’s squad can always contend with the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green together. Plus, the Dubs expect improvement from Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman and Moses Moody—Jordan Poole’s leap already happened last season.

Neither the Suns (+600) nor Bucks (+700) made any offseason moves that would boost their chances of returning to the Finals. Phoenix retained Deandre Ayton, almost begrudgingly, and Milwaukee looks forward to Khris Middleton’s return. Still, the 2021 Finalists have a ways to go to return to favorite status in their respective conferences.

The Clippers (+700) come in at fifth after they missed the playoffs a season ago. Kawhi Leonard missed the entire year, Paul George was absent for large chunks of it and L.A. still nearly snuck into the postseason. The Clips also kicked the tires on John Wall, who sat out last year, and will be well worth his contract if he can stay healthy.

There’s a steep dropoff after the first five contenders. The 76ers (+1400) retooled thanks to James Harden’s pay cut. Philadelphia plucked P.J. Tucker from the Heat and swapped Danny Green for De’Anthony Melton.

The Lakers (+1600) stick out because of what LeBron James and Anthony Davis can do when healthy, but Russell Westbrook is still on this team and the years-long pursuit of a shooter to complement James continues.

Further down the board, the Nuggets (+2000) offer some value if they get back healthy versions of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in addition to the sneaky good offseason additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown.

The Nets (+2500) could simply run things back with Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons, which would make for quite an interesting season. Remember: A similar version of this team began the 2021 season as title favorites.

Most surprising on this list might be the Timberwolves (+6600) coming in near the bottom of the league. Minnesota made an offseason splash by overpaying for defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert, who joins budding star Anthony Edwards and All-NBA big man Karl-Anthony Towns on a team that challenged the Grizzlies in the first round.

NBA MVP Odds

Joel Embiid +500
Luka Doncic +500
Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
Kevin Durant +900
Nikola Jokic +1000
Jayson Tatum +1200
Ja Morant +1200
Steph Curry +1200

Joel Embiid finished second in MVP voting to Nikola Jokic in back-to-back years. He has to break through and win eventually, right? Winning the scoring title and leading Philadelphia to a top-four seed in the East during the healthiest campaign of his career was not enough as Jokic captured the award for the second year in a row.

Voter fatigue is likely to come for the Nuggets’ center, which happened to Giannis Antetokounmpo after he won the award in consecutive seasons in 2019 and 2020. He finished fourth and third the following two seasons.

Co-favorite Luka Doncic finished fifth in voting in 2021 despite leading the Mavericks to their best season since they won the title. He could build on the momentum from Dallas’s surprising run to the Western Conference finals to put together a convincing MVP case.

Durant is an interesting prospect given the murkiness of his future, but his numbers last season certainly put him in the company of recent winners. That he only played 55 games likely kept him off many ballots, in addition to Brooklyn’s poor record.

Jayson Tatum and Ja Morant both lead teams that are expected to be back near the top of the standings. They finished sixth and seventh in voting, respectively, in the best seasons of their young careers.

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Paolo Banchero +300
Chet Holmgren +400
Keegan Murray +600
Jabari Smith +700
Jaden Ivey +700

The expectation for this award has shifted in recent years. In the early-to-mid 2010s, good stats on a bad team was enough to earn ROY honors. As of late, the players to win the award have contributed to teams that made the playoffs or play-in tournament. That’s not a rule by any means, but it is something to keep in mind.

Paolo Banchero (+300), the first overall pick from Duke, is the favorite and he joins a Magic team that has good pieces in place. Orlando just needs a star and, as an NBA-ready prospect who can defend and distribute, Banchero could be what this team needs to cobble together enough wins to vie for a spot in the play-in tournament.

Chet Holmgren (+400) is most likely to stuff the stat sheet in Oklahoma City. The lanky center is a defensive menace and can do more on offense than he showed at Gonzaga. The Thunder are still a ways away from competing at any high level.

Keegan Murray (+600) will join De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis in an effort to end the Kings’ postseason drought.

Jabari Smith (+700) was at one point a lock to be the first pick in the draft before he ultimately fell to No. 3. He joins a young Rockets team that selected three rookies in this class alone and was the worst team in the NBA last season.

Then there’s Jaden Ivey (+700) whom, based on the title odds alone, joins the best team of the top five picks. The athletic guard from Purdue will team up with Cade Cunningham to form an exciting young backcourt duo on a steadily improving roster.

NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds

Jordan Poole +450
Tyler Herro +500
Malcolm Brogdon +1000
Jordan Clarkson +1400
Anfernee Simons +1400

This award is no stranger to repeat winners. Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford together have won it five times in the last 10 years. So Tyler Herro (+500), who won it last year, and Jordan Clarkson (+1400), who did so the year prior, are valid picks.

Poole (+450) enters the season as a newfound star after his postseason run. With Thompson back in the lineup, Poole will revert to playing big minutes off the bench and closing games. He averaged 18.5 ppg in 30 mpg last season. With a bump in playing time, Poole can easily cross the 20-point threshold and lock this award up.

Malcolm Brogdon (+1000) is intriguing because of his position on a contending team. If he proves to be exactly what this Boston needs by playing good defense and closing games with his textbook efficiency, he could be an extremely good value bet.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Rudy Gobert +400
Robert Williams +650
Bam Adebayo +700
Giannis Antetokounmpo +800
Draymond Green +900

Defensive Player of the Year is another award with frequent repeat winners. Specifically, one repeat winner who’s a rightful favorite on a new team: Gobert (+400).

The Timberwolves’ big man is way ahead of the pack and has the opportunity to bring his defensive prowess from Utah to Minnesota and elevate a lackluster defense. Gobert’s counting stats and advanced numbers both support his case as the top defender in the league and keeping that up despite the change of scenery and supporting cast will just be another feather in his cap.

Robert Williams (+650) and Bam Adebayo (+700) both missed too many games last season, which hurt their chances of winning the award, which went to Williams’ teammate Marcus Smart. Staying on the court will be key for both of them to make their case this coming season.

Antetokounmpo (+800) interrupted Gobert’s reign of DPOYs by earning the award in 2020 and he’s always a viable contender.

Coach of the Year

Ime Udoka +750
Chris Finch +1000
Jason Kidd +1200
Tyron Lue +1200
Steve Kerr +1200
Taylor Jenkins +1200
Monty Williams +1200

Ime Udoka (+750) took Boston to the Finals in his first season at the helm. Just building on last year’s postseason success and following that up with a top-two finish in the East might be enough for him to earn this honor. That’s a very attainable goal for the Finals favorite, which explains why he’s the favorite for this award.

Chris Finch (+1000) also has some goodwill built up after last season’s postseason run. A leap to 50-plus wins with the addition of Gobert could get him over the hump.

Jason Kidd (+1200) and Tyron Lue (+1200) both lead hopeful Western Conference contenders. A 10-plus win improvement is in the cards for Lue, though that leap would be attributed more to Leonard’s return than Lue’s X’s and O’s.

Steve Kerr (+1200) and Monty Williams (+1200) have both won it in the last few years and it would take a lot to earn it again given their teams’ recent successes. The same goes for Taylor Jenkins (+1200), who finished runner-up to Williams in 2021.

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Published Aug 17, 2022

KYLE WOOD

Kyle is based in Washington, D.C. He writes the Winners Club newsletter and is a fantasy and betting writer for SI. His work has appeared in the Tampa Bay Times, Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald and Gainesville Sun.