NFL Week 3 Betting Guide: Matchups, Spreads, Odds for SI Sportsbook Perfect 10

Betting analysis of the 10 games featured in the Week 3 edition of SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest.

Frankie Taddeo | Sep 20, 2022

For this week’s Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook, bettors encounter a card listing road teams as the betting favorite in seven of the 10 games.

Taking the points offered by oddsmakers has been beneficial as underdogs have posted a 17-13-1 ATS (56.7%) mark, while also playing under the posted total has rewarded bettors with a 21-10-1 (67.7%) record. A strong early trend reveals that the under on game totals is 6-1 in all nationally televised prime-time games.

Bettors find seven games for this week’s Perfect 10 contest listed with point spreads of five points or less. Only one game (Bills-Dolphins) features undefeated teams squaring off. Of the three biggest favorites on the board, the Vikings (-7.5) and Chargers (-6.5) get the luxury of playing at home, while the Chiefs (-6.5) hit the road to battle the struggling and winless Colts.

At SI Sportsbook, bettors this season can take part in a free Perfect 10 contest. The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly, will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.

Let’s take a quick look at the contest lines!

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Ravens (1-1; 1-1 ATS) vs. Patriots (1-1; 1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: BAL -2.5 | NE -2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Ravens will look to rebound after blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to Miami in Week 2. The Patriots won 17-14 win at the Steelers last week but only earned a push against the number for those bettors who bet at kickoff and found a closing number of minus-three. New England, who is now 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven games, will take on a Baltimore squad it has beaten in four of the last five matchups. Bettors should take note that backing the team listed as the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Chiefs (2-0; 1-1 ATS) vs. Colts (0-1-1; 0-2 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: KC -6.5 | IND +6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Colts, who dropped to 0-8 both SU and ATS in their last eight road meetings with the Jaguars, are now 0-4 ATS over their last four games dating back to last season. Indianapolis, who is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games, will face a Chiefs club that is 9-4 ATS over its last 13 games (including playoffs). This opened with Kansas City as a three-point road favorite in early wagering but has steamed following the dismal performance of the Colts ‘offensive line. Indianapolis’ protective unit has allowed Matt Ryan to be the fifth-most sacked (seven) quarterback, which has led to a disappointing 1:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the veteran signal-caller through two weeks.

Raiders (0-2; 0-2 ATS) vs. Titans (0-2; 0-2 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: LVR -0.5 | TEN +0.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas is off to a rocky start as the Raiders are winless. The Raiders blew a 20-point halftime lead in Week 2 against the Cardinals and are now 4-9 ATS (30.7%) over their last 13 games. Derek Carr, who is 1-4 ATS away from Allegiant Stadium over his last five starts, heads to Nashville to face the winless Titans. The Titans are a paltry 3-8 ATS (27%) over their last 11 games and have massive issues on the offense, lacking any true game-changers outside of running back Derrick Henry.

Bengals (0-2; 0-2 ATS) vs. Jets (1-1; 1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: CIN -4.5 | NYJ +4.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: To say the defending AFC champion Bengals are in desperation mode is an understatement. Success for NFL teams begins in the trenches and Cincinnati’s offensive line has rated as the worst in the league as Joe Burrow is the most-sacked (13) quarterback in the NFL. Cincinnati is seeking revenge against a Jets club that upset it, 34-31, as an 11.5-point home underdog last season with backup quarterback Mike White under center. The Jets, who are underdogs for the third consecutive week, will look to ride the momentum of last week’s miraculous, come-from-behind 31-30 victory over the Browns.

Bills (2-0; 2-0 ATS) vs. Dolphins (2-0; 2-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: BUF -4.5 | MIA +4.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Dolphins' offense is off to a flying start as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle look like the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL. Miami is 2-0 ATS, 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and excellent 9-2-1 ATS (75%) mark over its last 12 games dating back to last season. The Bills, who are 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight games, have dominated the series of late against Miami, winning seven straight and nine of the last 10 meetings. The Bills own a solid 6-3-1 ATS mark over that span, but this is easily the best Miami club in the last decade.

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Eagles (2-0; 1-1 ATS) vs. Commanders (1-1; 1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: PHI -4.5 | WSH +4.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Commanders were unable to overcome a 22-point halftime deficit at the Lions last week and burned bettors in the 36-27 loss. Despite owning a 7-3-1 ATS record over their last 11 games, the Commanders now face an NFC East rival who have dominated them of late. Dating back to 2017, the Eagles have won eight of the last ten against Washington, while finding an accompanying 6-3-1 ATS mark over that span. After their performance in the first two games, the Eagles appear poised to improve their recent disappointing 1-4 ATS road skid. Bettors should find it hard to fade Jalen Hurts in Week 3.

Lions (1-1; 2-0 ATS) vs. Vikings (1-1; 1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: DET +7.5 | MIN -7.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Lions have one of the best young wideouts in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The second-year receiver became the third player in NFL history to record at least eight receptions in eight consecutive games. His rapport with Jared Goff has enabled the Lions to post a perfect 2-0 ATS start on the young season, as well as a solid 5-1 ATS mark over their last six games dating back to last season. The Vikings have won eight of the last 10 in the NFC North rivalry, but the Lions have covered three straight against the number in the series. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS over their last five home games, but you can expect the Lions to be one of the biggest underdog targets receiving a full touchdown of points.

Rams (1-1; 0-2 ATS) vs. Cardinals (1-1; 1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: LAR -3.5 | ARZ +3.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Rams, despite holding on for their first win of the season against the Falcons, are now 0-2 ATS. Los Angeles continues to burn backers by posting 1-5 ATS in their last six games as the betting favorite, while recording a dismal 6-11 ATS (36%) record over their last 17 games. The Cardinals, who rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit last week at Las Vegas, head back home to the friendly confines of State Farm Stadium. However, bettors should be careful before backing Arizona euphoria as the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. The Rams have dominated the Cardinals over the last 11 meetings, posting a 9-1-1 ATS record including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark over the last seven matchups in Arizona.

Jaguars (1-1; 1-1 ATS) vs. Chargers (1-1; 2-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: JAX +6.5 | LAC -6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: It appears the ‘only’ time bettors should look to invest in the Jaguars is when they host Indianapolis. The Jaguars improved to 8-0 SU and ATS against the Colts after a 24-0 shutout win in Week 2. However, Jacksonville has only covered the spread twice in their last ten games (2-8 ATS). The Chargers are 8-1 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings against Jacksonville dating back to 2010. Los Angeles, who won and covered the number in Week 1 against Las Vegas, is 3-1 both SU and ATS in its last four home games. All eyes this week will be monitoring the status of quarterback Justin Herbert who suffered a rib injury in last Thursday’s loss at Kansas City.

Packers (1-1; 1-1 ATS) vs. Buccaneers (2-0; 2-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: GB +2.5 | TB -2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: After coming up short in Week 1 against Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers bounced back with a solid win at Lambeau on Sunday night against the Bears. The Packers now head back on the road in Week 3, looking to snap their 0-4 ATS road streak. Tom Brady, who finally got his first regular-season SU and ATS win as the quarterback of the Buccaneers against the Saints, will look to make it three consecutive SU and ATS wins over Green Bay wearing pewter and orange. However, Brady may be forced to play without his top three weapons: Mike Evans (suspension), Julio Jones (knee) and Chris Godwin (hamstring).

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Published Sep 20, 2022

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.