NFL Week 4 Betting Guide: Matchups, Spreads and Odds for SI Sportsbook Perfect 10

Betting analysis of the 10 games featured in the Week 4 edition of SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest.

Frankie Taddeo | Sep 27, 2022

Oddsmakers believe home teams in Week 4 have an easier path to victory than the road teams they are encountering. In SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest, bettors find a card listing home teams as the betting favorite in seven of the 10 games.

Bettors find six games listed in this week’s contest with point spreads of four points or less. Of the four biggest favorites on the board, the Packers (-9.5), Eagles (-6.5) and Lions (-6.5) get the luxury of playing at home, while the Chargers (-6.5) hit the road to take on the Texans.

Backing home teams continues to be slightly better than a coin flip for bettors through three weeks as teams playing in front of their home faithful are just 25-22-1 (53.2%) straight-up (SU). Grabbing the points offered has been quite lucrative as underdogs have posted a solid 28-18-2 against the spread (ATS) mark, while betting on the under has rewarded bettors with a 29-18-1 record. A strong early trend reveals that the under is 7-3 in nationally televised prime-time games.

Let’s take a quick look at the Week 4 contest lines!

Bettors can take part in the free Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook each week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly, will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.

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Bills (2-1; 2-1 ATS) vs. Ravens (2-1; 2-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: BUF -3.5 | BAL +3.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Bills suffered their first SU and ATS loss of the season when they were upset by the Dolphins in Week 2. Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games (dating back to 2021) and will have its hands full taking on Lamar Jackson, who is now the second betting choice in the SI Sportsbook MVP market at +550 odds. Baltimore has been favored in three of the last four meetings against the Bills and posted a 3-1 ATS mark over that span. In Week 4, bettors find the Ravens being placed in a role in which they have thrived. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS (2021 vs. LAR, GB, KC; 2019 vs. PIT, NE) under Jim Harbaugh as home underdogs.

Commanders (1-2; 1-2 ATS) vs. Cowboys (2-1; 2-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: WSH +2.5 | DAL -2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Since earning a win and cover in Week 1 against the Jaguars, the Commanders have dropped two straight both in the standings and at the betting window. The Cowboys won both meetings against the Commanders last season while also covering the number, and have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Washington while going 7-3 ATS over that span. Dallas will be looking to build off its 23-16 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football.

Browns (2-1; 2-1 ATS) vs. Falcons (1-2; 3-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: CLE -2.5 | ATL +2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Falcons are one of three 3-0 ATS teams, joined by the Dolphins and Lions. Atlanta snapped a 0-5 ATS home skid in Week 1 by covering as a six-point underdog in a 27-26 loss to the Saints. The Browns feature Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield and average an NFL-best 190.6 rushing yards per game. The clubs have met four times dating back to 2006, with Cleveland owning a 3-1 SU and ATS mark.

Chargers (1-2; 2-1 ATS) vs. Texans (1-2; 2-0-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: LAC -6.5 | HOU +6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Chargers suffered their first ATS loss of the season in their 38-10 loss to Jacksonville as 6.5-point home favorites. Last season, the Texans upset the Chargers, 41-29, as 13.5-point home underdogs in Week 16. With Justin Herbert nursing injured ribs, look for Los Angeles to pound the ground game against a Houston defense ranking 32nd against the run and allowing 202.3 rushing yards per game. On the flip side, look for Davis Mills to throw early and often against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (seven). Los Angeles will be also without star pass-rusher Joey Bosa (groin) as it looks to rebound following two straight losses.

Seahawks (1-2; 1-2 ATS) vs. Lions (1-2; 3-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: SEA +6.5 | DET -6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Jared Goff and the Lions, who are 3-0 ATS, will put their 6-0 ATS home streak on the line against the Seahawks. Seattle is 5-11 ATS (31.3%) over its last 16 road games but has beaten Detroit in six of the seven meetings dating back to 2006. The Lions are looking to avenge last season’s 51-29 drubbing in Week 17 as 8.5-point road underdogs. Both teams feature different quarterbacks now in Geno Smith and Goff, as opposed to Tim Boyle and Russell Wilson in that game. Detroit will likely be one of the most-used Week 4 teams in survivor pools.

Jets (1-2; 1-2 ATS) vs. Steelers (1-2; 1-1-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: NYJ +3.5 | PIT -3.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Jets are expected to have starting quarterback Zach Wilson under center for the first time this season. New York is 3-6 ATS over its last nine road games and has one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, which has led to nine sacks. The Jets are two minutes away (Cleveland miracle) from suffering three straight double-digit losses to start the season. The Steelers are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their last eight regular-season games and face a Jets team that has allowed the third-most points (81) of any AFC team (Titans, Chargers - 84).

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Titans (1-2; 1-2 ATS) vs. Colts (1-1-1; 1-2 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: TEN +3.5 | IND -3.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Titans, who looked abysmal on the national stage against the Bills in Week 2, bounced back with a Week 3 home victory against the Raiders. Tennessee will look to snap an 0-4 ATS road skid against Matt Ryan and the Colts in Week 4. The Colts, who upset the Chiefs, 20-17, as 4.5-point home underdogs, will try to earn their first AFC South win of the season. The Titans are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three meetings with the Colts, and will lean heavily on running back Derrick Henry. However, Indianapolis owns the third-best rush defense, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game.

Jaguars (2-1; 2-1 ATS) vs. Eagles (3-0; 2-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: JAX +6.5 | PHI -6.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Two of the most impressive quarterbacks thus far face off in Week 4. Jalen Hurts, who is one of the early-season MVP favorites (+600), is the only quarterback to ever start the first three games of the season with 900-plus passing yards and 150-plus rushing yards. Trevor Lawrence, who led the Jaguars to a dominant victory over the Chargers, is a six-point road loss at Washington away from being undefeated. Throw all the historical data out the window here as these two teams are young and on the rise. Easily one of Sunday’s best matchups.

Broncos (2-1; 1-2 ATS) vs. Raiders (0-3; 0-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: DEN +1.5 | LVR -1.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: To say Josh McDaniels is on the hot seat after three weeks is an understatement. McDaniels is now 11-20 (.355) as a head coach after an 0-3 start. The Raiders have burned both respected and public money in Vegas by posting an 0-3 ATS mark. For a team with such high aspirations heading into the season, Las Vegas may soon be focusing on the 2023 draft. On the flip side, sharp money in Vegas holds Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett in low regard despite a 2-1 start. The Broncos, who are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings against the Raiders, will try to snap a four-game losing streak in the series.

Patriots (1-2; 0-2-1 ATS) vs. Packers (2-1; 2-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: NE +9.5 | GB -9.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Following the injury to Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (ankle), this line has moved drastically from early look-ahead lines. With Jones out, oddsmakers have adjusted the line 5.5 points, moving the Packers from five-point home favorites to a 10.5-point demand. New England is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games and will be forced to lean heavily on its running game led by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots have four rushing touchdowns but will face a stout Packers rush defense that has only surrendered one rushing score. Green Bay is one of the best home teams against the number, owning an impressive 8-2 ATS mark over its last 10 games at Lambeau Field.

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Published Sep 27, 2022

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.