Colts-Broncos ‘Thursday Night Football’ Week 5 Betting Preview

A best bet and betting analysis of Thursday’s Colts-Broncos matchup.

Two teams dealing with major injury issues at the running back position will kick off Week 5 on Thursday Night Football when Russell Wilson and the Broncos host Matt Ryan and the Colts.

Wilson, who is 106-55-1 in his career, has dropped outside the top ten in MVP futures at SI Sportsbook at +3500 odds. Wilson, who has struggled to meet expectations in his first season in Denver, has fallen behind quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Kirk Cousins in the betting market.

The biggest storyline ahead of this game is the status of Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle). As of Tuesday, Taylor was wearing a walking boot and hadn’t taken part in any practices or even walk-throughs.

The rubber will meet the road in prime time in a battle of futility from a betting perspective. The Colts are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last six games, while the Broncos are 2-6 ATS over their last eight dating back to last season.

Bet on Colts-Broncos at SI Sportsbook

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Colts (1-2-1; 1-3 ATS) vs. Broncos (2-2; 1-3 ATS)

• Spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-118) | Denver -3.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: IND (+145) | DEN (-175)
• Total: 42.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
• Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: IND 41% | DEN 59%
• Game Info: Oct. 6, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | Prime Video
• Editor’s Note: Odds Subject to Change

The line has ticked up since its opening of the Broncos as a 2.5-point home favorite over the Colts at SI Sportsbook to Denver displayed with a 3.5-point demand. The game total has not changed since opening at 42.5 points.

Taylor, who ranks sixth in rushing (328 yards) in the NFL, has disappointed fantasy managers due to his production. After scoring 32 touchdowns in 32 games, Taylor has only found the end zone once in four games this season. If Taylor is forced to sit or play limited snaps, the Colts will need to rely on their passing game.

Despite ranking fourth in passing yards (1,125), Ryan has only five touchdown passes in his first four games leading the Indianapolis offense. After a rocky first two games, the veteran has shown vast improvement over the last two weeks, completing 73% of his passes with a solid 4:1 interception-to-touchdown ratio.

Wideout Michael Pittman, who leads the Colts in receptions (20) and receiving yards (224), has only scored once this season. The biggest issue for the Indianapolis offense is that the two players who lead the club in touchdowns, Mo Allie-Cox and Jelani Woods, are both tight ends. The Colts rank 32nd in scoring (14.3 points per game) and need to find more production from their receiving unit.

On the other side, the Broncos aim to remain undefeated at home this season after earning wins over the Texans and 49ers.

Denver suffered a massive blow when leading rusher Javonte Williams was lost for the season (ACL, LCL). To add depth behind new starter Melvin Gordon, the team signed Latavius Murray off the Saints’ practice squad.

Enter SI Sportsbook’s Free Perfect 10 Contest at SI Sportsbook!

The Broncos will rely upon the arm and legs of Wilson, as well as the receiving tandem of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Wilson, who ranks 16th in passing yards (980) and 20th in touchdowns (four), faces a Colts defense that is allowing 21.3 points per game. Indianapolis has allowed three quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdown passes through the first four games.

Bettors have been burned by both of these teams at the betting window dating back to last season. Taylor is arguably the NFL’s best running back and his ankle injury on a short week does not bode well for a struggling Colts offense that has scored a league-worst 57 points. Respected money in Vegas believes the Broncos will prevail at home in a hostile environment.

BET: Denver -3

Trends:

• Denver is 2-6 ATS over its last eight games dating back to last season
• The under is 9-0 in Indianapolis’ last nine games
• Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS over its last six games
• The under is 6-2 in Denver’s last eight home games
• Indianapolis is 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Denver

2022 SI Betting NFL: 1-2-1 ATS & Props 6-8 -1.45 Units
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 9-8 ATS & Props 16-12 +5.75 Units
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS & Prop Wagers +4.00 Units
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS & Props +14.22 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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