Padres-Mets MLB National League Wild-Card Series Betting Preview

Betting analysis of the National League wild-card series between the fourth-seeded Mets and fifth-seeded Padres.

The grueling 162-game Major League baseball season has come to an end.

The postseason starts with six teams from each league. Four teams earned first-round byes (Yankees, Astros, Braves and Dodgers). The other eight franchises pair up in three-game series over the Columbus Day weekend.

Here’s a look at the National League wild-card matchup between the fourth-seeded Mets and fifth-seeded Padres. The Mets led the NL East almost wire to wire before being passed in the second-to-last series when the Braves swept them. The Padres, despite a big trade deadline, could not keep pace with the Dodgers.

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No. 5 Padres (89-73) vs. No. 4 Mets (101-61) Odds

• Series odds: Padres (+150) | Mets (-200)
• Mets odds: NYM in 2 (+150) | NYM in 3 (+225)
• Padres odds: SD in 2 (+500) | SD in 3 (+300)
• Series length: Two games (-125) | Three games (-110)
• Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7, 2022 | 8:07 p.m. ET | ESPN
• Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | ESPN
• Game 3 (if needed): Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Mets have the edge in all areas in this matchup, but they can only go as far as Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer can bring them. Ace pitching wins in the postseason, but a team needs a shutdown closer and clutch hitting. 

Mets closer Edwin Diaz emerged as the best late-inning arm in 2022, while Padres closer and traded dealine acquisition Josh Hader finished the year with one run allowed over 11 1/3 innings with 14 strikeouts and seven saves. Unfortunately, he had an absolute disaster run over 13 games in July and August (25 runs, 38 baserunners and six homers over 13 innings), crushing his early-season success (1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and 25 saves).

The combination of Juan Soto and Manny Machado probably has a higher long-term ceiling over Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, but the Mets’ pairing is in a much better frame of mind heading into the postseason.

Padres southpaw starter Blake Snell found his rhythm over his final seven starts (1.76 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 41 innings). His downfall in many starts is the length of his outings due to high pitch counts.

Since the middle of August, Scherzer has made seven starts (3.16 ERA) but he allowed four runs in three different matchups. His experience and overall ceiling should create a winning edge against the Padres.

New York doesn’t expect to pitch deGrom in the first two games, partly due to a blister issue. Even with all three of these contests being played in New York, the Padres have a chance to be 1-1 after two games. DeGrom had four walks and 39 strikeouts over his final 21 innings, but he allowed 14 runs, 24 baserunners and six home runs while facing three low-ranking hitting teams (Cubs, Pirates and A’s).

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New York Mets

Steve Cohen’s quest to put the Mets back in the conversation as one of the best teams in the league came true in 2022. They tied the Braves for the NFL East title (101-61) but lost the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record (9-10 while being outscored 90-74). New York had a winning record every month, while having its best success at home (54-27). Their franchise won 24 more games than in 2021.

Pitching Stats

• Sixth in MLB in ERA (3.57)
• First in strikeouts (1,565)
• 10th in bullpen ERA (3.55)

Batting Stats

• Fifth in runs (772)
• 15th in home runs (171)
• 23rd in steals (62)
• Second in batting average (.259)
• Second in on-base percentage (.332)

Top Three Hitters

• Pete Alonzo – .271 with 95 runs, 40 home runs, 131 RBIs and five steals
• Francisco Lindor – .270 with 98 runs, 26 home runs, 107 RBIs and 16 steals
• Starling Marte – .292 with 76 runs, 16 home runs, 63 RBIs and 18 steals

Top Three Pitchers

• Max Scherzer – 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA and 173 strikeouts over 145 1/3 innings
• Jacob deGrom – 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 102 strikeouts over 102 innings
• Chris Bassitt – 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA and 167 strikeouts over 181 2/3 innings

Closer

• Edwin Diaz – 3-1 with 32 saves, 1.31 ERA,and 118 strikeouts over 62 innings

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San Diego Padres

The Padres desperately want to knock the Dodgers off the NL West pedestal, highlighted by the blockbuster trade for outfielder Juan Soto this summer. Unfortunately, they can’t reach their ceiling without Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 with an injury and suspension. After making the postseason in 2020 for the first time since 2006, San Diego had a melt in September (6-19) last season to fall out of the postseason race. Despite playing without their star hitter, the Padres finished second in their division (89-73), a mere 22 games behind the Dodgers. They went 43-41 since July 1, while being outscored 367-347.

Pitching Stats

• 11th in ERA (3.57)
• Seventh in strikeouts (1,451)
• 14th in bullpen ERA (3.83)

Batting Stats

• 13th in runs (705)
• 21st in home runs (153)
• 27th in steals (49)
• 16th in batting average (.241)
• Eighth in on-base percentage (.318)

Top Three Hitters

• Juan Soto – .242 with 93 runs, 27 home runs, 62 RBIs and six steals
• Manny Machado – .298 with 100 runs, 32 home runs, 102 RBIs and nine steals
• Brandon Drury – .263 with 87 runs, 28 home runs and 87 RBIs

Top Three Pitchers

• Yu Darvish – 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 197 strikeouts over 194 2/3 innings
• Joe Musgrove – 10-7 with a 2.93 and 184 strikeouts over 181 innings
• Blake Snell – 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA and 171 strikeouts over 128 innings

Closer

• Josh Hader – 2-5 with 36 saves, a 5.22 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 50 innings

BET: New York Mets (-200)

The Padres had a nice season, but a couple of their key players didn’t play up to expectations. I don’t believe players can turn on a switch to unlock the missing link in their swing or delivery in the postseason. New York has the better length to its pitching staff in this matchup, and its team chemistry looks to be in the right place to win against San Diego. The Padres did win the season series, 4-2, while outscoring the Mets, 36-23. Scherzer made only one start (lost 4-1 to Darvish) and deGrom didn’t face San Diego.

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