MLB ALDS, NLDS Game 1 Best Bets

Four bets to target for Tuesday’s Games 1s of the ALDS and NLDS.

The MLB Divisional Series kick off Tuesday afternoon, and there is sure to be a lot of great baseball ahead.

The American League features a pair of AL West rivals in the Mariners and Astros facing off at Minute Maid Park, and the AL Central champion Guardians heading to the Bronx to take on the AL East champion Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

The National League matchups include the reigning World Series champion Braves hosting their NL East rivals in the Phillies, and the Padres visiting their NL West rivals in the Dodgers - whose 111 wins paced MLB this season.

If you want to get in on the action, here are a few fun Game 1 bets to target. I’ve chosen four bets that I think present good value with three paying plus-money.

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Bet: Astros -1.5 (+100)

The Mariners are certainly worthy opponents for the Astros, but Justin Verlander had their number all season long. The Astros won all six of Verlander’s regular-season starts versus the M’s, and they covered the run line in every single game. Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) is a very good pitcher, but the underlying numbers suggest the Astros should be able to get a few hits in as his average exit velocity (91) and max exit velocity (118) allowed rank bottom 5% of the league. Meanwhile, Verlander pitched to a 1.75 ERA, posted a 0.83 WHIP, allowed only a .186 batting average against this season and recorded 18 wins. Both bullpens are excellent and should keep this game under control. Look for a low-scoring affair with the Astros to win the home opener by at least two runs.

BET: Eugenio Suarez under 0.5 hits (+100)

I am happily taking this plus-money prop for Eugenio Suarez to come up hitless since he’s batting .100 in 20 career at bats versus Verlander. That’s right. He has only two hits vs. Verlander for his career. Suarez is hitting .230 since the All-Star break, and I like the payout for Verlander and the Houston pen to shut him down.

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BET: Jose Ramirez home run (+475)

This is a long shot but it’s a fun one. The way to get to Gerrit Cole is via the long ball. His 1.48 home runs per nine innings is the fifth-most allowed by qualified starters. Jose Ramirez is batting .273 with two home runs in 22 at-bats against Cole.

Ramirez already has one game-winning home run in the postseason. Who’s to say he can’t have another? 

BET: Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Dodgers went 15-4 against the Padres during the regular season, outscoring them 109-47. Yes, the Padres look hot coming off an upset win versus the Mets, but the Dodgers will be well rested and ready to go. Julio Urias (17-7, 2.16) gets the start for L.A., and he doesn’t give up hard contact, so the Padres will have their work cut out for them. This one goes to the team in blue.

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