MLB ALDS Game 2 Odds and Bets

A best bet for Thursday’s ALDS Game 2 matchup between the Mariners and Astros.

The American League Division Series continues Thursday as the Astros host the Mariners in Houston and the Yankees host the Guardians in the Bronx.

Editor’s Note: Thursday’s Yankees-Guardians game has been postponed and will be played Friday afternoon.

Houston owns a 1-0 series lead thanks to a dramatic comeback walk-off, three-run homer with two outs in the ninth from Yordan Alvarez. Houston trailed the entire game until that moment, and unfortunately it wasn’t enough to cover our run line bet. Luckily, our bet for the Astros to win this series remains in play and we locked in good odds as Houston is now -500 at SI Sportsbook to win the series.

The Yankees took care of business as expected versus in a 4-1 win over the Guardians and covered the run line. The Yankees now have -400 odds to advance.

If you want to get in on Thursday’s action, here are some bets to target.

Bet on Guardians-Yankees and Mariners-Astros Game 2s at SI Sportsbook

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Mariners vs. Astros Game 2 Odds (Astros lead, 1-0)

• Moneyline: SEA (+130) | HOU (-154)
• Run line: SEA +1.5 (-167) | HOU -1.5 (+140)
• Total: 6.5 – Over (-125) | Under (+105)
• Game Info: Oct. 13, 2022 | 3:37 p.m. ET | TBS

BET: Mariners/Astros Under 6.5 Runs (+105)

Yes, this is a very small number and it’s scary to bet on the under after these two teams just put up 15 runs in Game 1 with the likely AL Cy Young winner on the mound. But, let’s live a little! Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo (4-4, 2.86) has been phenomenal since coming to Seattle and he pitched 7 1/3 innings of no-run baseball versus the Blue Jays in Game 1 of the wild-card series.

Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82) set an MLB record for consecutive quality starts this year (25) and he dominated the Mariners, allowing a .205 batting average with nearly a 26% K rate - and Valdez isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He has surrendered zero homers to this lineup, so that sets up well for the score to remain low.

Both bullpens are excellent and this game sets up to be a low-scoring affair.

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Guardians vs. Yankees Game 2 Odds (Yankees lead, 1-0)

• Moneyline: CLE (+115) | NYY (-138)
• Run line: CLE +1.5 (-188) | NYY -1.5 (+155)
• Total: 6.5 – Over (+100) | Under (-118)
• Game Info: Oct. 13, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | TBS
• EDITOR’S NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED TO FRIDAY

BET: Yankees -1.5 (+155)

I like this Guardians lineup. I really do. But. they just aren’t a match for this Yankees team that is top five in OPS, Runs scored, home runs, slugging and ISO, while also boasting the third-lowest  ERA (3.30). Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians (13-8, 2.93 ERA) and he has been excellent this year but has struggled against Yankees hitters. Though Bieber has a high strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of hard contact (bottom 14% of the league), and that’s something that players like Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo can capitalize on at home.

Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44) starts for the Yankees and he does not allow much hard contact, ranking in the top 25% of the league. The Guardians are bottom-10 in the league in slugging, with the second fewest home runs, and they are bottom half of the MLB in runs scored. The safe play is Yankees moneyline but let’s get bold.

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