Yankees-Astros MLB American League Championship Series Odds and Betting Preview

The Astros are favorites at SI Sportsbook as the AL’s top seeds meet for the right to advance to the World Series.

While the top three teams in the National League were all eliminated early, the top two seeds in the American League -- the Houston Astros and New York Yankees -- will meet in the AL Championship Series to determine who advances to the World Series.

Over seven games this season, the Astros went 5-2 against the Yankees with a slight edge in runs scored (27-22). New York posted a 31-27 record in one-run games while dominating in scoring (343-126) in blowout contests (32-6). The Astros had better success in one-run matches (28-16). They also had an edge in runs (353-to-153) in games decided by five runs or more (35-13).

SI Sportsbook Betting Line: Houston Astros (-225) | New York Yankees (+140)

Yordan Alvarez hit 37 home runs and had 97 RBIs in 2022 :: Thomas Shea/USA Today Sports

• Justin Verlander won his only start against the Yankees (one run over seven innings with three strikeouts). He is only 9-7 in his career vs. New York with a 3.44 ERA and 138 strikeouts over 146.1 innings.

• In two matchups against the Yankees, Cristian Javier went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings with 15 strikeouts.

• Framber Valdez posted a 4.50 ERA and seven strikeouts over six innings vs. New York.

• Over 16 at-bats against the Yankees, Yordan Alvarez hit .313 with two home runs and six RBI.

• Kyle Tucker struggled over 22 at-bats (.208 with one home run and three RBI) vs. New York.

• Houston beat Gerrit Cole in his only start against them despite allowing only one run over seven innings with eight strikeouts. He has a 1-2 record vs. the Astros over 28 innings with 28 strikeouts.

• Nestor Cortes allowed three runs over five innings with seven strikeouts against Houston in his only start vs. Houston.

• The Astros kept Aaron Judge in check over his 27 at-bats (.208 with eight strikeouts), but he hit a pair of home runs with seven RBI.

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Houston Astros

The Astros are in the postseason for the sixth straight season, with one World Series title (2017) and two other appearances (2019 and 2021) in that span. Over those six seasons, they went 541-329. Houston outscored its opponents by 219 runs thanks to an elite pitching staff.

Pitching Stats

• 2nd in MLB in ERA (2.90)
• 4th in strikeouts (1,524)
• 1st in bullpen ERA (2.80)

Batting Stats

• 8th in runs (737)
• 4th in home runs (214)
• 16th in steals (83)
• 12th in batting average (.248)
• 7th in on-base percentage (.319)

Top Three Hitters

• Yordan Alvarez – .306 with 95 runs, 37 home runs, 97 RBI and 1 steal
• Kyle Tucker – .257 with 71 runs, 30 home runs, 107 RBI and 25 steals
• Jose Altuve – .300 with 103 runs, 28 home runs, 57 RBI and 18 steals

Top Three Pitchers

• Justin Verlander – 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 185 strikeouts over 175.0 innings
• Cristian Javier – 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA and 194 strikeouts over 148.2 innings
• Framber Valdez – 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and 194 strikeouts over 201.1 innings

Closer

• Ryan Pressly – 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA, 65 strikeouts and 33 saves over 48.1 innings

New York Yankees

The Yankees continue to be one of the best teams in baseball while making the postseason for the sixth year. They've made the postseason 24 times over the past 28 seasons. Their last World Series win came in 2009.

Pitching Stats

• 3rd in ERA (3.30)
• 6th in strikeouts (1,459)
• 3rd in bullpen ERA (2.97)

Batting Stats

• 2nd in runs (807)
• 1st in home runs (254)
• 8th in steals (102)
• 15th in batting average (.241)
• 5th in on-base percentage (.325)

Top Three Hitters

• Aaron Judge – .311 with 133 runs, 62 home runs, 131 RBI and 16 steals
• Gleyber Torres – .257 with 73 runs, 24 home runs, 76 RBI and 10 steals
• Anthony Rizzo – .224 with 77 runs, 32 home runs and 75 RBI

Top Three Pitchers

• Gerrit Cole – 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 257 strikeouts over 200.2 innings
• Nestor Cortes – 12-4 with a 2.44 and 163 strikeouts over 158.1 innings
• Luis Severino – 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 112 strikeouts over 102.0 innings

Closer

• Clay Holmes – 7-4 with 20 saves, a 2.54 ERA, and 65 strikeouts over 63.2 innings

The Pick: Houston Astros
When reviewing the Yankees' offense, they only had one player that had a great season. They have a veteran presence while catching a couple of hot stretches by Matt Carpenter and Oswaldo Cabrera over the long 162-game season. Gerrit Cole allows too many home runs, putting him at risk in tight games. New York doesn't have the proper structure in their bullpen to win many close games after the sixth inning against a top offense. Houston brings length to their starting rotation, plus their late-inning arms have done well this season. I don’t trust Ryan Pressly with the series on the line, but the Astros have some insurance in their bullpen if he trips up. Houston's nucleus on offense looks much deeper than New York's. If the Astros keep Aaron Judge in check, they should coast to an easy series win. 

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