Odds for Aaron Judge’s 2023 Team

The Yankees are favored to re-sign Aaron Judge in free agency but could face challengers in the Giants, Dodgers and Mets.

With the Yankees now eliminated from the postseason, all eyes turn to the future of Aaron Judge.

Judge made headlines when he turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension offer  ($32.5 million annual average value) prior to the season. Judge bet big on himself and he made the right call with a massive payday looming.

Judge swatted an AL-record 62 homers, is the American League MVP favorite and fell just short of the triple crown. He was one of only two players this season to have an OPS of over 1.000 (Yordan Alvarez being the other) and his 11.5 fWAR was far and away the best in MLB. For perspective, Manny Machado had the second-highest WAR (7.4) among position players (Shohei Ohtani finished second overall).

The Yankees’ outfielder put the team on his back, leading them to a 99-win season, an AL East title and their third ALCS appearance in the past six years.

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The postseason didn’t go well for Judge, who unfortunately slumped at the wrong time. In fact, the postseason rarely goes well for Judge and there should be some question as to whether a team should pay a premium for a player that isn’t hot in October. Judge hit just .131 with two home runs and three RBIs across nine games this postseason and .063 (1-for-16) in the ALCS. Judge’s career postseason average is just .211 with 13 home runs and 25 RBIs across six seasons and 44 games played.

Let’s check out the odds for which team Judge will play for in 2023.

New York Yankees  (-500)

Even though Yankees fans booed Judge in the ALCS, my money is on Judge returning to the Bronx. Yankees fans will soon forget this postseason and will not want Judge going anywhere else. He was the heart and soul of the team all year, and the mandate will be for management to keep him.

San Francisco Giants (+425)

The Giants are the hometown team for Judge, who is from the Bay area. Just recently we saw star free agent Freddie Freeman go home to Los Angeles, so why not Judge home to the Bay? The Giants are looking for a new face of the franchise and Judge could be a piece they build around. They potentially have the money available, though my gut tells me they won’t be able to compete with the kind of contract a larger market team will try to offer.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+1000)

The Dodgers are always in the market for a big star. After Dave Roberts confidently predicted the Dodgers would win the 2022 World Series before the season began on the Dan Patrick show, the Dodgers need to save some face after being ousted by the 89-win Padres in the NLDS. The Dodgers potentially have money coming off the books in Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and former Yankee Joey Gallo. This move would involve star Mookie Betts or Judge himself moving from right field, but don’t count out the city—and team—that loves stars.

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New York Mets (+1400)

Steve Cohen is not afraid to write a check. Luxury tax? Who cares. After the Mets were ousted following a 101-win season (yes, they had the better record of the New York teams this year), they could be in the market for a star. Judge wouldn’t have to change his dry cleaner and the Mets could use outfield help.

Boston Red Sox (+1400)

Don’t you love a good controversy? This would certainly cause one. If I’m Judge, I know I’d rather play for Red Sox manager Alex Cora than Aaron Boone—but, then again, maybe Aaron Boone is out too. Only time will tell. Fenway is a great park for hitters, and this would certainly reignite the rivalry.

Texas Rangers (+2800)

The Rangers spent big last year on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and after that didn’t pan out as expected, they fired their manager. They’re already invested in rebuilding and hired Bruce Bochy, and Judge could be the next piece.

Minnesota Twins (+2800)

Okay, stay with me here. The Twins offered Carlos Correa a three-year deal with an average annual salary of $35.1 million. They also offered him an out after one year. That frees up some budget to try again with a new star in Judge.

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