Patriots-Vikings Thanksgiving Week 12 Odds, Lines and Spread

The Vikings are small home favorites against the Patriots on Thanksgiving as they look to rebound from their loss to the Cowboys.

The Vikings host the Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium on Thursday night for the Thanksgiving nightcap.

Both teams are coming off wildly different outcomes. New England essentially walked off on a game-winning punt in the final seconds of a tight division bout with the Jets in Week 11, while Minnesota let up 40 points to the Cowboys and was blown out in its first home loss of the season.

The Vikings fell to 4-1 in front of their fans and they are 2-3 against the spread (ATS) in such games. The Patriots have gone 3-2 on the road and posted a 3-1-1 ATS mark, having covered their last three games away from Foxborough.

Last week’s loss was a surprising letdown for Minnesota, which still maintains a strong hold on first place in the NFC North. A Vikings win Thursday would mark their first in the series since 2000. The last five games have gone to the Patriots, with the most recent meeting coming in 2018.

New England aims for its fourth win in a row as it jockeys for position in the hyper-competitive AFC East with the Dolphins and Bills.

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Spread: New England +2.5 (+105) | Minnesota -2.5 (-125)
Moneyline: NE (+130) | MIN (-154)
Total: 42.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: NE 45% | MIN 55%
Game Info: Nov. 24, 2022 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC

Patriots Straight-Up Record: 6-4
Patriots Against The Spread Record: 6-3-1

Vikings Straight-Up Record: 8-2
Vikings Against The Spread Record: 4-5-1

Bet on Patriots-Vikings at SI Sportsbook

The game total is set at 42.5 points despite the fact that neither team managed an offensive touchdown last week.

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has struggled throughout his sophomore season and has more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (four) on the year. For the most part, New England has been able to lean on running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris but the rushing attack was held to 99 yards last week. But the backbone of this team is its defense, which is No. 1 by DVOA.

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had his worst game of the season against the ferocious Cowboys’ defense and he’ll face another tough test at home. He finished with just 105 yards, zero touchdowns and took seven sacks in Minnesota’s worst offensive outing of the year. For the season, he has 2,461 passing yards and 14 touchdowns, six of which have gone to his top target Justin Jefferson. The second-year pro was largely neutralized last week but he’s a dangerous threat and highlights a group of skill position players that includes running back Dalvin Cook, fellow receiver Adam Thielen and recently acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson.

There’s potential for a Vikings bounceback in this spot, especially against a Patriots team that has struggled to move the ball. It feels like the value in this game is on the total, though, not the spread. Half of Minnesota’s games have gone over this season and less than 50% of New England’s games have done so. These offenses don’t figure to be trading scores and even if Jefferson and Cousins are able to beat the secondary deep a few times, it’s unlikely Jones has much of a counter.

BET: Under 42.5 (-110)

Trends

• The under is 3-0 in New England’s last three games.
• Minnesota is 3-1-1 ATS over its last five games.
• The Patriots are 15-7 all-time on Thursday night.
• The Vikings are 6-2 all-time on Thanksgiving.

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