Player Props NFL Week 14: Quarterbacks

Six quarterbacks with the best chance to beat or fall below the line for passing yard prop bets.

Sports Illustrated's player prop tool is a great way to easily find player prop bets worth wagering on. We compare every available player market and cross-reference them with our custom player projections.   The player props for football can be found by following these steps:

Top 3 Quarterbacks to bet OVER on their Passing Yards

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 212.5 passing yards)

Over his last five starts, Pickett failed to pass for over 200 yards in four games (191/0, 199/0, 174/0, and 197/1) while gaining a measly 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh scored 20 times on their previous 43 possessions (12 field goals and eight touchdowns), showing growth in their offensive play. Baltimore plays well vs. the run (3.8 yards per carry) while showing risk in multiple games defending wide receivers (20/215, 25/372/5, 11/255, 17/243/1, 23/250/2). The Ravens will pressure the quarterback, so the Steelers must give Pickett enough time to hit on some long plays to reach a winning total in passing yards. I have him projected to pass for 243 yards, 30.5 more than his line (212.5) set by SI Sportsbook.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (Over 275.5 passing yards)

The highest over/under on Sunday’s main slate of games is the Vikings/Lions (51.5). Detroit has a glowing weakness defending the run (345/1,796/17 – 5.2 yards per rush) while allowing 27 points per game. Their pass defense allowed more than 40 passes in five matchups, with five offenses passing for more than 275 yards (WAS – 337/3, SEA – 320/2, MIA – 382/3, GB – 291/1, and NYG – 341/1). In addition, wide receivers have made plenty of explosive plays (16/218/2, 14/250, 24/336/2, 22/292/1, and 18/211/2). Cousins averages 37.4 pass attempts, but his yards per pass attempt (6.5) is well below his previous eight seasons (7.8). I expect this game to have plenty of scoring, and Cousins will need to throw the ball well to win. Justin Jefferson looks poised for a monster game, while the Lions have the tools to push the Vikings on the scoreboard.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (Over 274.5 passing yards)

The injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift led to Detroit losing their scoring firepower from Week 5 to Week 9 (0, 6, 27, and 15 points scores). Over their other eight matchups, they scored 33 touchdowns on 88 possessions, leading to 267 points (33.4 per game). Detroit runs the ball well (341/1,524/18 – 4.5 yards per rush), with an excellent mix of big plays and success at the goal line. Goff passed for over 300 yards in three of his seven home starts, and his offensive weapons look much stronger coming into Week 14 with his star players healthy. Jameson Williams adds another dimension to the deep passing game, but Detroit will limit his snaps over the next couple of weeks. The Vikings allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt, with seven teams passing for more than 300 yards (PHI – 333/1, MIA – 418/2, ARI – 326/3, BUF – 330/1, DAL – 301/2, NE – 382/2, and NYJ – 369/0). Minnesota also has massive issues defending wideouts (177/2,436/8). Goff will shine in this matchup, helping Detroit to win the game.

Top three quarterbacks to bet UNDER their passing yards

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (Under 289.5 passing yards)

Herbert is a player that should have his projections upgraded this weekend if Mike Williams is cleared to take his full complement of snaps. His passing yards per attempt (6.5) rank poorly due to him playing without his top two wideouts for many games and relying on Austin Ekeler on many dump-off passes. Herbert averages 42.5 passes with strength in his completion rate (66.7). Despite his high-volume passing opportunity, he threw for more than 290 yards only twice over his last eight starts. The Dolphins struggled with quarterbacks from Week 2 to Week 4 (BAL – 318/3, BUF – 400/2, and CIN – 310/1), but a softer schedule led to five of their past eight opponents passing for fewer than 220 yards.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (Under 237.5 passing yards)

Over the past five matchups, Dallas scored 27 touchdowns and four field goals on 55 possessions. Prescott attempted 30 passes or fewer in four of those games, while the Cowboys excelled running the ball (29/200/4, 31/159/1, 40/151/2, 39/169/2, and 34/220/4). Dallas continues to have a top defense, pointing to Dallas playing from the lead for most of the game. SI Sportsbook has the Cowboys favored by 17.5 points, showing a one-sided battle with many rushes. Houston ranks poorly defending the run (416/2,029/15 – 4.9 yards per carry) while also allowing 14.8 yards per catch to wide receivers. Prescott will throw the ball early and test the Texans’ secondary, but he may be holding a click board by the fourth quarter. If the Cowboys’ defense scores any defensive touchdowns early, the run game and a fast-moving clock will limit the passing chances for Dallas.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 254.5 passing yards)

Twelve games into 2022, Brady only had 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He still ranks highly in pass attempts (43.7) with a respectable completion rate (66.2). Unfortunately, running backs (85/579/4 on 102 targets) account for 24.5% of his completions. His offensive line forced him to get the ball out quickly to avoid sacks (18). The 49ers’ defense allowed fewer than 20 points in 10 of their 12 matchups, with their only failure coming against the Chiefs (44 points). Their defense has 36 sacks with elite success defending the run (3.3 yards per rush). San Francisco will play with a rookie quarterback while wanting to run the ball. The Bucs’ defense has been run over in the time of possession in four games (GB – 33:25, KC – 38:38, BAL – 38:23, and CLE – 39:09). I don’t expect Tampa to run the ball well in this game. Brady has talent at wide receiver, but he will be under pressure most of this game, pointing to a short day in passing yards. 

Enter SI Sportsbook’s Free Perfect 10 Contest for a Shot at $10,000!