Bengals-Buccaneers Week 15 Odds, Betting Insights: Cincinnati Listed as 3.5 Point Favorite

Bengals vs. Bucs. Burrow vs. Brady. Betting breakdown for a battle between playoff-bound teams.

After starting the season with two losses, Cincinnati went 9-2, coming into this week's game with five straight wins. Their only poor showing came in Week 8 in Cleveland while playing without Ja’Marr Chase for the first time. Their defense allowed 17 points or fewer in five of their wins, helped by facing a below-par crop of quarterbacks on the year (Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa – hurt early in this game, Lamar Jackson, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson).

As long as Tom Brady has a swing in the postseason, Tampa can steal some wins in the playoffs. The Saints had the Bucs on the ropes in Week 13, but a poor play call on third down in a short-yardage situation and a gutless punt gave Brady a window to climb back off the mat in his quest to have one more postseason dance. The 49ers buried Tampa Bay last week (35-7), giving the rest of the NFC South team a chance to steal the division if they can run the table.

The offensive line play has been brutal in Tampa, leading to only 3.3 yards per rush with four rushing scores. Brady continues to have a short passing window on many plays, highlighted by a career-low 6.2 yards per pass attempt despite a reasonable completion rate (65.8). The Buccaneers no longer have a stout run defense (allow 4.6 yards per rush). Their defense struggled in their two matchups vs. top teams (KC – 41 points and SF – 35 points). No quarterback has passed for more than 275 yards, and only Patrick Mahomes delivered more than two passing scores.

The Bengals had tremendous success over their last five wins from the running backs (151/699/8 with 28 catches for 289 yards and five touchdowns). In addition, their wideouts gained over 200 yards in three contests (14/233/1, 15/204/1, and 13/211/2), with the latter two helped by Chase returning to game action. Cincinnati needs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to play this week to help their passing game vs. Tampa. Joe Burrow is an excellent young quarterback but also struggles with a short passing window (Tampa has 38 sacks).

Bengals vs. Buccaneers Odds

Moneyline: Bengals (-188) | Buccaneers (+155)
Spread: CIN -3.5 (-110) | TB +3.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 – Over: (-118) | Under: (+100)
Game Info: December 18th, 2022 | 4 p.m. ET | CBS

Bengals Straight-Up Record: 9-4
Bengals Against The Spread Record: 10-3

Buccaneers Straight-Up Record: 6-7
Buccaneers Against The Spread Record: 3-10-1

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Odds and Betting Insights

The sportsbooks listed Tampa as a favorite in each of their first 11 matchups, but they only covered versus Dallas, New Orleans, and Seattle. Tom Brady is 11-1 against the spread in his career as a home underdog while being victorious in nine matchups. I’m riding the Bucs with a sense this game goes over, but Cincinnati must have Higgins on the field to even consider that play.

Tom Brady: Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Earlier I highlighted the weakness of the quarterback field against the Bengals’ defense. They allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with only one team tossing more than one touchdown (CAR – 164/2). Cincy allowed 278, 265, and 291 yards passing in their last three road games vs. Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. In addition, the Bengals showed risk in two contests vs. wide receivers (MIA – 16/254 and CLE – 12/245/1). Wideouts gain 14.4 yards per catch. Brady helps his passing stats by the volume of attempts (44.5 per game – seven matchups with 30 completions or more).

Mike Evans: Over 55.5 yards receiving (-125)
The last time there was an Evans sighting in the top end of wide receiver rankings was Week 8 (6/123). His scoreless streak is nine games (a TD was called back last week). Over his last five games (5/40, 5/54, 2/31, 4/59, and 4/44), Evans caught only 20 of his 39 targets for 228 yards (11.4 yards per catch). I have him projected to catch five passes for 79 yards with a 75% chance of scoring vs. the Bengals.

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