Dolphins-Bills Week 15 Odds, Player Props and Betting Preview

A best bet and player props to target for Saturday’s AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Bills. Buffalo is a sizable home favorite.

The Dolphins head to Highmark Stadium to take on the division-leading Bills on Saturday night. Miami won the first matchup, 21-19, at home in Week 3.

Buffalo enters Saturday night on a four-game win streak, while Miami enters this matchup off back-to-back losses to the 49ers and the Chargers.

The Bills are tied with the Chiefs for the best record in the AFC and they hold the tiebreaker due to a head-to-head win. The Dolphins own the No. 6 seed in the AFC with a one-game lead over the Chargers and the Jets for the final playoff spot in the conference but are fighting for their lives entering the final four weeks.

This game should be a fun one!

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

Moneyline: Miami (+260) | Buffalo (-333)
Spread: MIA +8.5 (-133) | BUF -8.5 (+110)
Total: 43.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 17, 2022 | 8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Network

Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 8-5
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 6-7

Bills Straight-Up Record: 10-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 6-6-1

Both Buffalo and Miami have top-nine offenses, but Buffalo has the far superior defense. Buffalo’s 27.3 points scored per game rank fourth in the league, while Miami’s 24.3 per game rank ninth. However, Miami is allowing 24 points per game this season (22nd), while Buffalo is allowing only 17 (second).

Josh Allen remains one of the elite quarterbacks in the league and he should be able to connect with wideouts Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie versus a Miami secondary that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this year (259) to quarterbacks. Allen’s 628 rushing yards rank fourth at the position and his six rushing touchdowns rank third.

Diggs is averaging 95.3 receiving yards per game and owns a 29.1% team target share (fourth in the NFL). He should exceed his player prop of 71.5 receiving yards Saturday. He’s only been held to fewer than 71.5 yards three times this year and caught seven passes for 74 yards in the first matchup.

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Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. His 108.2 passer-rating is second only to Jalen Hurts among starters this season. With Tyreek Hill, who is second in the NFL with 1460 receiving yards, and Jaylen Waddle, who has already exceeded 1,000 yards, Tua has no shortage of weapons.

Though Hill is dealing with an ankle injury, he is expected to play Saturday. Hill only managed 33 receiving yards versus the Bills in Week 3 but Waddle logged 102. The Bills are strong versus the pass this season, but across the last four weeks they have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks (1,028).

Miami does not lean on the run game, rushing an average of only 22 times per game (31st), despite having Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert. Buffalo has one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. We are fading any running back props for Miami.

Odds and Betting Insights

Buffalo is 2-3 against the spread (ATS) as home favorite, while Miami is 1-2-0 ATS as an away underdog. Bills’ games have hit the over only three times this season, while Miami’s games have hit the over six times.

Buffalo should come out on top but it’s difficult to buy the hook. I’ll take the Dolphins plus the points, despite Tua being in the midst of a mini-slump.

BET: Dolphins +8.5 (-133)

Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

Dolphins-Bills Player Props to Target

Stefon Diggs over 71.5 receiving yards (-120)
Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115)

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