Confidence Rankings for 2022 Bowl Games: Straight-Up Picks for All 41 Games

Confidence rankings and straight-up picks for every college football bowl game.

Around the holidays, college football isn’t so tightly confined to Saturdays with the college football bowl season in swing. There’s games morning, afternoon and night from now until after the New Year’s for the avid college football fan, the casual viewer and the sharp bettors alike.

One of the best ways to get in on the action is with a confidence pool. Instead of picking a few games here and there against the spread, instead assign a confidence meter to all 41 bowl games over the next few weeks and win points based on how confident you were in your straight-up selection—if you were right, of course.

With one confidence point being the least confident to 41 being the most, below you can find SI Betting’s rankings for each contest as well as the date, time and spread, courtesy of SI Sportsbook.

Updated Record: 25-16

Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

Bahamas Bowl: UAB over Miami (OH)

Spread: UAB -11
Dec. 16, 11:30 a.m ET

Miami (Ohio) won’t keep up with the UAB’s offense, led by star running back DeWayne McBride, who’s coming off a season-high rushing 272 yards.

Confidence points: 36

Cure Bowl: UTSA over Troy

Spread: UTSA -2.5
Dec. 16, 3 p.m. ET

Troy has one of the best defenses in the nation, but UTSA, which finished with nearly 600 yards of offense in its 21-point win in the conference championship, has too many weapons to be contained.

Confidence points: 24

Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati over Louisville

Spread: Louisville -2
Dec. 17, 11 a.m. ET

With Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham opting out and interim coaches calling the shots for both sides (before former Cardinals coach Scott Satterfield takes over the Bearcats program), trust in Cincinnati’s stifling defense to win out.

Confidence points: 3

Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon State over Florida

Spread: Oregon State -10
Dec. 17, 2:30 p.m. ET

Oregon State has a top-20 run defense to counter Florida’s dominant ground game and its secondary should be able make a play or two against quarterback Jack Miller III, who will be making his first career start.

Confidence points: 39

LA Bowl: Fresno State over Washington State

Spread: Fresno State -4
Dec. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET

A 10-win season is within reach for Fresno State, who has a top-20 pass defense to counter the Washington State’s Cameron Ward and a touchdown machine at running back in Jordan Mims.

Confidence points: 5

Lending Tree Bowl: Southern Mississippi over Rice

Spread: Southern Mississippi -6.5
Dec. 17, 5:45 p.m. ET

Teams can run on Rice, who is limping into the postseason having lost four of its last five, and that’s exactly what Southern Miss should do with Frank Gore Jr. in the backfield.

Confidence points: 16

New Mexico Bowl: SMU over BYU

Spread: SMU -4
Dec. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET

BYU quarterback Jaren Hall is expected to miss his team’s bowl game with an ankle injury. Without him, BYU won’t be able to get the best of SMU’s suspect defense to keep pace with the Mustang’s high-scoring offense.

Confidence points: 27

Frisco Bowl: Boise State over North Texas

Spread: Boise State -10.5
Dec. 18, 9:15 p.m. ET

BYU ranks sixth in total defense, which makes this a tough matchup for North Texas, whose high-scoring offense has faltered as of late against lesser competition.

Confidence points: 32

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall over UConn

Spread: Marshall -10
Dec. 19, 2:30 p.m. ET

Marshall will beat UConn in the trenches. The Thundering Herd have the No. 5 rushing defense in the country to counter the Huskies’ run-first offense and Marshall can turn around and establish it with Khalan Laborn.

Confidence points: 34

Potato Bowl: San Jose State over Eastern Michigan

Spread: San Jose State -4
Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET

The advantage goes to San Jose State, who has a tougher defense and more explosive passing attack than Eastern Michigan thanks to the connection between Chevan Cordeiro and Elijah Cooks.

Confidence points: 1

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo over Liberty

Spread: Toledo -5
Dec. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET

Since upsetting Arkansas, it’s been all downhill for Liberty, who lost three in a row and lost all momentum heading into the postseason against Toledo, who has the edge offensively.

Confidence points: 11

New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama over Western Kentucky

Spread: South Alabama -4.5
Dec. 21, 9 p.m. ET

South Alabama is a complete team whose only two losses came to UCLA and Troy, both top-25 teams at season’s end, by a combined five points. The Jaguars’ defense is capable of slowing down high-scoring Western Kentucky and they can hold their own on the other side of the ball.

Confidence points: 30

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force over Baylor

Spread: Baylor -5.5
Dec. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET

Everything went wrong for Baylor down the stretch, while Air Force won its final four games while allowing 25 total points. The Falcons sit on the ball and grind their opponents down, and their triple-option offense makes this game ripe for an upset.

Confidence points: 10

Independence Bowl: Houston over Louisiana

Spread: Houston -6.5
Dec. 23, 3 p.m. ET

Houston loves a good shootout, evidenced by its 77-63 loss to SMU earlier this season (no, that was not a basketball score). The Cougars’ porous defense will give the Louisiana a chance, but Clayton Tune will bring this one home.

Confidence points: 26

Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest over Missouri

Spread: Wake Forest -1
Dec. 23, 6:30 p.m. ET

With quarterback Sam Hartman intending on playing, this should be a win for Wake Forest. Missouri is not equipped to contend with an offense of this caliber, but if the Tigers can keep it close, the Demon Deacons did have a knack for losing tight games in November.

Confidence points: 7

Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State over Middle Tennessee

Spread: San Diego State -7
Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET

Nothing comes easy against San Diego State and its top-20 scoring defense, while Middle Tennessee is happy to let its opponents rack up yards. San Diego State keeps it tight and ekes out a win.

Confidence points: 25

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Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green over New Mexico State

Spread: Bowling Green -3.5
Dec. 26, 2:30 p.m. ET

Bowling Green doesn’t put up much resistance on defense but New Mexico State is not a team that’s going to make them pay. Matt McDonald leads the Falcons to victory in front of a friendly crowd in nearby Detroit.

Confidence points: 8

Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern over Buffalo

Spread: Georgia Southern -3.5
Dec. 27, 12 p.m. ET

Georgia Southern is the more battle-tested team, but more importantly this is a revenge game for quarterback Kyle Vantrease, who spent four years with Buffalo. The Eagles have the advantage at signal-caller, which trumps their defensive woes.

Confidence points: 9

First Responder Bowl: Memphis over Utah State

Spread: Memphis -7.5
Dec. 27, 3:15 p.m. ET

Taking Memphis to beat Utah State, who has a negative point differential this season in a weaker conference, is an easy enough call, even though the Tigers went 2–3 down the stretch.

Confidence points: 23

Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina over Coastal Carolina

Spread: East Carolina -8
Dec. 27, 6:45 p.m. ET

Quarterback Grayson McCall entered the transfer portal and Coastal Carolina’s hopes of beating ECU went with him. The Chanticleers won’t have the points to back up their suspect defense against the Pirates.

Confidence points: 35

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin over Oklahoma State

Spread: Wisconsin -3
Dec. 27, 10:15 p.m. ET

In another case of the quarterback for the better team not being available for the bowl, Wisconsin has the edge without Spencer Sanders propping up Oklahoma State’s offense.

Confidence points: 18

Military Bowl: UCF over Duke

Spread: Duke -3
Dec. 28, 2 p.m.

This is a quarterback duel as both John Rhys Plumlee and Riley Leonard do it all for their respective teams. UCF, which beat a very good Tulane team earlier in the year, should take this game against Duke to cap off another 10-win campaign.

Confidence points: 14

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas over Kansas

Spread: Arkansas -3
Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m. ET

Things went sideways for both Kansas and Arkansas midway through the year. Talent will win out for Sam Pittman’s squad in what should be a shootout.

Confidence points: 17

Holiday Bowl: Oregon over North Carolina

Spread: Oregon -14
Dec. 28, 8 p.m. ET

Oregon is one of the heaviest favorites of the bowl season against North Carolina, who indeed will have quarterback Drake Maye back for another season in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels’ slide will continue against a hungry Ducks team.

Confidence points: 41

Texas Bowl: Ole Miss over Texas Tech

Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ET

This contest, between two offenses who average nearly 1,000 total yards between them, will likely come down to which team can make a few stops. Ole Miss, who has the slightly better passing and scoring defense, has the advantage in that regard.

Confidence points: 31

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota over Syracuse

Spread: Minnesota -7.5
Dec. 29. 2 p.m. ET

Minnesota has one of the toughest defenses in all of college football to score against. After the losing streak Syracuse went on, which ended in the season finale against Boston College, there’s little confidence in Syracuse’s ability to put up points.

Confidence points: 29

Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State over Oklahoma

Spread: FSU -7.5
Dec. 29, 5:30 p.m. ET

Florida State is rolling and absolutely nothing Oklahoma has shown this season should be able to stop FSU’s five-game streak. Mike Norvell will clinch a 10-win season in his third year at the helm with the help of the elusive Jordan Travis.

Confidence points: 37

Alamo Bowl: Washington over Texas

Spread: Texas -4.5
Dec. 29, 9 p.m. ET

Texas will get a big boost if Bijan Robinson decides to play in the bowl. If he doesn’t, the Longhorns won’t have the firepower to keep up with Washington and Michael Penix Jr., the nation’s leading passer.

Confidence points: 13

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Maryland over NC State

Spread: Maryland -1.5
Dec. 30, 12 p.m. ET

Maryland has its quarterback and N.C. State doesn’t. This line is as simple as that, as the Wolfpacks are clearly the better team. Perhaps Taulia Tagovailoa can find the groove he hit early in the year once again in this matchup.

Confidence points: 5

Sun Bowl: UCLA over Pittsburgh

Spread: UCLA -6
Dec. 30, 2 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh quarterback Kedon Slovis is already out for this matchup and Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be as well. UCLA won’t have as big of an edge without its dual-threat signal caller, though it can still stave off Pitt, which can’t match its pace on offense.

Confidence points: 12

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame over South Carolina

Spread: Notre Dame -2.5
Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET

Notre Dame needs to watch itself against South Carolina, who shocked the world by beating Tennessee and Clemson to end the year. The Fighting Irish’s disciplined defense should be able to limit Spencer Rattler and avoid an upset.

Confidence points: 20

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming over Ohio

Spread: Ohio -1.5
Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m.

Wyoming dropped two in a row to end the regular season, but the Cowboys are more battle-tested than the Ohio, also coming off a loss, and they can lean on their defense to carry them to victory.

Confidence points: 4

Orange Bowl: Clemson over Tennessee

Spread: Clemson -6.5
Dec. 30, 8 p.m.

The quarterbacks that got these programs into the playoff conversation—Hendon Hooker and D.J. Uiagalelei—will not be under center when they face off. Opt outs and injuries might hamper Tennessee’s chances more than Clemson’s, though.

Confidence points: 33

Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Syndication The Columbus Dispatch

Sugar Bowl: Alabama over Kansas State

Spread: Alabama -3
Dec. 31, 12 p.m. ET

It’s rare to see Alabama not playing for the title. The last time it happened was in 2019, and Nick Saban certainly took the bowl assignment seriously, laying waste to Michigan, 35-16. Opt outs aside, Alabama has no dearth of talent and should still handle Kansas State.

Confidence points: 22

Music City Bowl: Iowa over Kentucky

Spread: Iowa -2
Dec. 31, 12 p.m. ET

Bet on Iowa at your own risk, though the Hawkeyes should be able to get by a struggling Kentucky team that will be without quarterback Will Levis.

Confidence points: 6

Fiesta Bowl: Michigan over TCU

Spread: Michigan -7.5
Dec. 31, 4 p.m. ET

TCU certainly earned its spot among the final four teams. Michigan, with its dominant run game, lights out defense and a chip on its shoulder from last year’s semifinal exit, is here to end its magical season, though.

Confidence points: 38

Peach Bowl: Georgia over Ohio State

Spread: Georgia -6.5
Dec. 31, 8 p.m.

Ohio State is perhaps the best possible challenge to Kirby Smart leading Georgia to back-to-back titles, but even the Buckeyes’ high-powered offense won’t be enough to get the best of this machine.

Confidence points: 28

Reliaquest Bowl: Mississippi State over Illinois

Spread: Illinois -2
Jan. 2, 12 p.m. ET

This will be an emotional outing after the passing of Mississippi State coach Mike Leach. But the Bulldogs are still playing this game, against a tough Illinois defense, just as Leach would have wanted.

Confidence points: 2

Cotton Bowl: USC over Tulane

Spread: USC -2.5
Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET

Other than Utah, no team had much of an answer for the USC during Caleb Williams’ Heisman run. His injury status—and whether or not top receiver Jordan Addison opts out—could swing the outcome of this game, but the Trojans surely have Tulane beat on talent.

Confidence points: 19

Citrus Bowl: LSU over Purdue

Spread: LSU -14
Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET

Even though LSU lost by 20 in the SEC Championship Game, that they put up 30 on UGA’s defense is a major accomplishment. Purdue isn’t nearly as tough a test, and Brian Kelly will win his 10th game in his first year in Baton Rouge.

Confidence points: 40

Rose Bowl: Utah over Penn State

Spread: Utah -2
Jan. 2, 5 p.m. ET

After Utah nearly knocked off Ohio State in the Rose Bowl last year it’ll finish the job this time around against a Penn State team that failed both of its toughest tests this season.

Confidence points: 21

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