Bears-Lions Week 17 Odds, Lines and Spread

The Lions are favored by more than a field goal at home against the Bears in Week 17 in their quest to sweep the season series.

Shawn Childs | Dec 28, 2022

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The Lions had a chance in Week 16 to push their record over .500 in December for the first time since 2017. Unfortunately, when the lights when on in Carolina, their defense wasn’t prepared to slow down the Panthers’ run game (43/320/3 – 7.4 yards per carry).

Despite the loss, Detroit still has an outside chance of making the postseason. It must defeat the Bears at home and the Packers in Green Bay. In addition, they need a loss by the Seahawks and Commanders. The Lions could also jump the Giants in the Wild Card standings if they lost their final two matchups.

Chicago comes into Week 17 with eight straight losses, a 1-6 road record and no success in the NFC North (0-4). Its only conference win came in Week 1 versus the 49ers. The Bears allowed 34 touchdowns (83 possessions) and 261 points (32.6 per game) over their previous eight contests. Offenses continue to drill them on the ground (465/2,268/27 – 4.9 yards per rush). Eleven rushing touchdowns came via runs by quarterbacks (94/372/9) and receivers (23/157/2). Chicago also has a weak pass rush (18 sacks – three over the last five games) and has allowed a rushing score in every game this year (eight over the past three weeks).

The Bears can go only as far as Justin Fields can carry them. In Week 10, Chicago pushed the Lions to the limit (31-30 loss) when they rushed for 258 yards and two scores, helping their star quarterback to his best day (314 combined yards with three touchdowns) in 2022. The Bears’ receivers gained fewer than 100 yards in six of their last seven games. Fields leads quarterbacks in rushing yards (150/1,011/8).

Detroit’s best defensive play comes when its offense controls the clock. Over their streak of six wins over seven games, the Lions won the time of possession battle five time. Their offense continues to shine rushing the ball at the goal line (21 touchdowns – 13 at home). Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 9. Over his last seven starts, he averages 274 passing yards with 12 touchdowns.

The next step in the Lions’ development is on defense. They allow 5.1 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt, leading to offenses scoring 50 touchdowns and 20 field goals (401 points). Five opponents posted 30 points or more against them. Over their last six games, receivers gained over 200 yards five times.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds

Bears Straight-Up Record: 3-12
Bears Against The Spread Record: 5-9–1

Lions Straight-Up Record: 7-8
Lions Against The Spread Record: 10-5

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Odds and Betting Insights

The Lions are one of the better teams in the NFL to bet on in 2022, especially as an underdog (7-3). Heading into Week 16, Detroit had a seven-game winning streak versus the spread while never being favored by more than two points.

Detroit has been the betting choice in only five matchups (-1.5, -3.5, -1.0, -2.0 and -2.5), but it is 2-3 in those games. The game total has gone over nine times in 15 contests, while never having a total under 43.5. Detroit has an eight-game winning streak versus the spread against the NFC North, and the over has cashed in the previous six games when the Lions have been favored at home.

Chicago’s porous defense led to the game total landing on the over in eight of their past nine games, even with their offense averaging 15.5 points over their last four weeks. The Bears failed to cover the spread in their previous seven games (0-6-1) when facing a team with a losing record. The game total has gone over in Chicago’s last five road matchups.

The Lions’ offense has tons of firepower with the receiving corps to produce big plays. They finish drives in the red zone, and their offense has done an excellent job of minimizing turnovers over the past couple of months. I see Detroit controlling the clock and delivering a spread-covering win at home.

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Published Dec 28, 2022

SHAWN CHILDS