Broncos-Chiefs Week 17: Odds, Lines, Spread and Betting Preview

The Chiefs are double-digit favorites as they host the Broncos in an AFC West matchup.

Despite losing to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs still have their eyes on securing the top seed in the AFC. Ultimately, the Chiefs need the Bengals to defeat Bills at home in Week 17 to clear a path to win out and jump Buffalo in the overall standings.

The Broncos have been eliminated from the postseason, and their embarrassing loss to the Rams (51-14) led to them firing their head coach over the past week.

The Chiefs are 10-2 over the past 12 games, with those two defeats coming to Buffalo and Cincinnati. Their defense allows tons of passing touchdowns (31) despite allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Kansas City will rush the quarterback (45 sacks) with better run defense in the red zone (eight rushing touchdowns).

Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (4,720) and touchdowns (37). His ability to make big plays (8.1 yards per pass attempt) has been surprising when looking at his options at wide receiver (176/2,326/13). The Chiefs run the ball well (373/1,756/14 – 4.7 yards per carry).

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Denver had their best scoring game (28 points – four passing touchdowns) in their first matchup against the Chiefs. The Broncos ran the ball better over the past five games (120/587/3 – 4.9 yards per rush).

Their defense showed more risk over two previous matchups (34 and 51 points allowed). Denver plays well defending the pass (6.2 yards per pass attempt), with two teams passing for over 300 yards (LV – 307/2 and KC – 352/3). Over the past four weeks, the biggest weakness has been defending tight ends (8/83, 7/116, 6/66, and 12/151/2).

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Game Info

Moneyline: Broncos (+500) | Chiefs (-699)
Spread: DEN +12.5 (-110) | KC -12.5 (-110)
Total: 44.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: January 1st, 2023 | 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS

Broncos Straight-Up Record: 4-11
Broncos Against The Spread Record: 6-9

Chiefs Straight-Up Record: 12-3
Chiefs Against The Spread Record: 4-10-1

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Odds and Betting Insights

Kansas City is an easy investment this week based on how the Broncos' played in Week 16. The change in head coach may lead to an uptick in motivation by Denver’s players. The Chiefs have yet to cover the spread in 2022 against AFC West opponents. Surprisingly, the game total in Kansas City games has come in their past five matchups. The Broncos have yet to win a contest on the road this year.

• The game total finished on the under 11 times over the first 12 Denver games. However, their past three matchups have gone over the total.
• The Broncos are 3-5 vs. the spread on the road.
• Kansas City has been favored in 13 of their 15 games, but they are 5-8 covering the spread in those matchups.
• The Chiefs are 2-2 when favored by 10 points or more.
• The game total for Kansas City has been more than 45.0 in 13 games. When the game total is under 45.0 (42.0 and 44.0), there has been one over and one under.

My play in this matchup would be on the under side of the game total. The Chiefs tend to have long drives on many plays, leading to a fast-moving clock. In addition, Denver allows a ton of sacks (57), hurting their chances to tie multiple scoring drives together.

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