Panthers-Saints Week 18 Odds, Lines and Spread

The Saints are favored by more than a field goal at home against the Panthers in Week 18 in a battle of eliminated teams.

Shawn Childs | Jan 4, 2023

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The Saints bring a three-game winning streak into Week 18 but New Orleans has already been eliminated from the postseason. When reflecting on 2022, their loss to the Buccaneers in Week 13 (17-16 after leading 16-3 with the ball in the fourth quarter) will sting the most.

The Panthers kept their playoff hopes alive until Week 17, but some lapses in coverage from their cornerbacks led to three long touchdowns and a come-from-behind win for the ageless Tom Brady. Considering the changes and shortcomings at quarterback early in the season, paired with trading Christian McCaffrey, Carolina did well to keep their fans engaged all year. However, they head into this week’s matchup with a 1-6 road record.

Despite playing four of their past five games on the road (49ers, Buccaneers, Browns and Eagles), the Saints stayed competitive due to improved play by their defense (13, 17, 18, 10 and 10 points allowed). New Orleans tends to be up and down versus the run (four teams rushed for more than 175 yards and seven offenses gained fewer than 100 yards on the ground). In addition, their pass rush posted between four and six sacks in five of their previous nine contests. On the year, quarterbacks gained only 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 17 touchdowns.

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The lack of wins by New Orleans is highlighted by it scoring 20 points or less in eight games (five times over the last eight weeks). During the previous three weeks, the Saints showed growth running the ball (34/134, 39/152/2 and 35/130/1), but they still gained fewer than 4.0 yards per rush in their previous eight matchups. New Orleans hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes since Week 8. In their loss earlier in the year to the Panthers, the Saints’ wide receivers (21/327/1) had their best showing.

Carolina ideally wants to dominate on the ground, highlighted by six games (27/173/1, 36/169/3, 47/232/2, 46/185/1, 46/223/2 and 43/320/3) over their last 10 matchups. On the downside, defenses stuff the run against them in the four other games (18/64, 17/36, 16/21, and 22/74). Sam Darnold had his best game (341/3) of the season versus Tampa after averaging only 23 passes in his previous three contests. The Panthers passed for fewer than 200 yards in 10 games but gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks.

Defensively, Carolina showed risk defending the pass over the previous two weeks (Lions – 355/3; Buccaneers – 432/3). Before those games, only one opponent (Saints – 353/1) threw for more than 300 yards. The Panthers are about league average defending the run (4.3 yards per rush) while giving up 16 rushing scores.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

Panthers Straight-Up Record: 6-10
Panthers Against the Spread Record: 8-8

Saints Straight-Up Record: 7-9
Saints Against the Spread Record: 6-10

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Odds and Betting Insights

Both teams in their matchup have played better over the past five weeks, with a goal of running the ball. The Panthers’ lack of success on the road, paired with their recent struggles defending quarterback, points to New Orleans grinding out a win. I expect this game to be competitive, giving Carolina a chance to cover the spread if they don’t turn the ball over.

· The Panthers are 7-3 versus the spread in their last 10 games but 1-2 over the past three weeks.

· The game total has gone over in four consecutive Carolina matchups after starting the year 7-3 in favor of the under. The over has paid off in four of the previous road games for the Panthers.

· The winning side of the game total for Saints’ games has been the under over the past five games (8-1 in their last nine matchups).

· New Orleans is 2-4 when favored but 2-1 at home.

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Published Jan 4, 2023

SHAWN CHILDS