Buccaneers and Falcons Week 18 Odds and Picks: Point Spread Indicates Tampa Bay Will Rest Starters

Considering the Falcons are 4.5 point home favorites, it's clear the oddsmakers don't expect Tom Brady and Tampa Bay's stars to be in action for much of the game.

For the second consecutive year, the Buccaneers are NFC South Champions. Their game against the Falcons in Week 18 is meaningless for Tampa Bay, considering they’re already locked in to host a playoff game during Wildcard Weekend as the fourth seed in the NFC. The Falcons are 6-10, and while they are eliminated from the playoffs, they are in play for a Top 10 pick in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Currently, they have the seventh pick, but with a win in Week 18 and a loss by some other teams with a similar record, like the Panthers, Raiders, Browns, Saints, and Jets, the Falcons could win their way out of a Top 10 selection.

Oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook list the Falcons as 4.5-point home favorites. The spread clearly indicates that Buccaneers will rest their starters for most, if not the entire, game.

These two NFC South teams played back in Week 5, with Tampa Bay winning 21-15. Tom Brady threw for 351 yards and one touchdown, while Marcus Mariota tossed a TD and rushed for 61 yards. Atlanta has since benched Mariota and will start rookie Desmond Ridder.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under:

Moneyline: Buccaneers +175 | Falcons -213
Spread: Tampa Bay +4.5 | Atlanta -4.5
Point Total: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 8th 2023 | 1:00 pm (est) | FOX

Bet on the Buccaneers and Falcons in Week 18

Odds and Betting Insights

The Buccaneers’ 4-11-1 record against the spread is the worst in the NFL. They’ve covered the number just once in their last seven games and twice over their last 15 outings. Tampa Bay was listed as an away underdog, as they are this weekend, just once all year, and failed to cover in the game. Meanwhile, the Falcons have a .500 ATS record at 8-8 for the season and 4-4 ATS at home.

Neither team has been strong at getting to the over on the point total. Just five of the Buccaneers’ games, and just six of the Falcons’, have gone over.

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Buccaners vs. Falcons Best Bet:

Look for Atlanta to win a meaningless game by at least a touchdown in Week 18 in front of their hometown fans, thus resulting in a worse draft pick in 2023. But hey, they’ll end the season on a high note!

Spread: Falcons -4.5
Point Total: Under 40.5

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