Dolphins-Bills AFC Wild-Card Odds, Spread, Lines and Best Bet

A best bet for Sunday’s matchup between the second-seeded Bills and seventh-seeded Dolphins. Buffalo is a double-digit home favorite with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined.

Frankie Taddeo | Jan 11, 2023

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Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagoviloa will not play Sunday against the Bills.

The Sunday slate of wild-card weekend action kicks off with Josh Allen and the Bills hosting Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out, putting Miami in an unfavorable spot.

Buffalo extended its winning streak to seven games following its victory over the Patriots in in Week 18 and continues to receive positive news on the recovery of Damar Hamlin. His miraculous progress is going to be a motivating force once again when the club takes the field before ‘Bills Mafia’.

During this seven-game winning streak, the Bills have only posted a marginal profit for bettors with a 4-3 against the spread (ATS) mark. Buffalo is 6-1 straight-up (SU) at Highmark Stadium this season but has disappointed bettors who have laid the wood on the home club. The Bills have been no less than seven-point favorites in any home game but have covered against the number three times.

Miami snapped a five-game losing streak in Week 18 to earn the 7-seed in the AFC after beating the Jets, 11-6. Rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson started that game and he could be under center again with Tagovailoa ruled out. The status of veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater (finger) remains unclear.

The spread had been moving around as rumors swirled about Tagovailoa’s status, but the Bills have now moved from 9.5-point favorites to 11.5-point favorites. Buffalo moved from a -500 moneyline favorite to a prohibitive -800 favorite. The points total dropped form three points from 46.5 to 43.5.

The two AFC East rivals split the season series with Miami covering the spread in both contests. The Bills are 8-2 straight-up (SU) but are just 4-5-1 ATS over the last 10 games in the heated rivalry dating back to 2018.

Heading into wild-card weekend, respected money information from Vegas is on a roll. Thee information helped the SI Betting community go 4-0 on player proposition wagers in Week 18, while also going 2-0 on both teaser investments.

Let’s keep the train rolling along and stay hot!

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Wild-Card Odds

Dolphins Straight-Up Record: 9-8
Dolphins Against The Spread Record: 9-8

Bills Straight-Up Record: 13-3
Bills Against The Spread Record: 8-7-1

Bet on Dolphins-Bills at SI Sportsbook

Buffalo Offense vs. Miami Defense

The Bills finished the regular season with the league’s seventh-best passing attack (258.1 yards per game) and should be able to move the ball via the air against a Miami squad with the NFL’s sixth-worst pass defense that allows 234.8 passing yards per game. The Dolphins have surrendered 30 total touchdowns to quarterbacks and will be hard pressed to slow down Allen and his weapons.

Allen, who has thrown nine touchdowns over his last three games, finished second in the NFL in that category by tossing 35 scores on the season. The dual-threat quarterback has torched the Miami defense this season, throwing for 704 yards and six touchdowns in the two regular-season matchups. Allen has also been efficient on the ground, averaging 62 rushing yards in the two meetings.

Devin Singletary leads the Bills with 819 rushing yards but has also been solid in the passing game, tallying the fifth-most receptions (38) on the club. The versatile back struggled on the ground against Miami’s stout run defense (ranked No. 4 by allowing 103 yards per game), gaining 55 yards on 22 carries. However, he has been a factor in the passing game with 12 receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown.

After three subpar performances in which he averaged 41 receiving yards and no touchdowns, receiver Stefon Diggs was back to his stellar production in Week 18 by hauling in seven of 10 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Bills’ offense is at its peak when Diggs leads the way but he averaged 67 yards in the two games against Miami this season with no touchdowns. Expect Sean McDermott to make sure the game plan heavily involves his star wideout.

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Miami Offense vs. Buffalo Defense

Thompson—assuming he starts—will encounter a Buffalo defense that is surrendering the second-fewest points per game (17.9) this season. The Bills’ secondary has been outstanding of late, allowing an average of just 217 passing yards to quarterbacks over their last five games.

Miami’s running game, which ranks 25th in rushing (99.2 yards per game), may have suffered a critical loss. Running back Raheem Mostert leads the team in rushing yards (891) but broke his thumb against the Jets and his status for the wild-card game is in doubt. If he is unable to go, it would leave the bulk of the work in the hands of Jeff Wilson Jr. against a Bills’ defense that has surrendered seven total touchdowns to running backs over the last nine games.

Mike McDaniel’s aerial attack is anchored by the star tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill finished second among all wideouts in both receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), while Waddle hauled in an impressive 75 receptions for 1,356 yards. Hill and Waddle, though, are not as dangerous without Tagovailoa.

Dolphins-Bills Best Bet

*Editor’s Note: The original bet was a two-team, seven-point teaser with the Bills (2.5) and Bengals Pick’em at -120 odds.

Respected money believes that Allen, who is 3-0 in playoff games at Highmark Stadium in his career, will remain undefeated. We will avoid laying the wood choosing to instead play this game as an exotic betting investment.

BET: Three-team, 10-point teaser (-120): Bills -1.5, Bengals -0.5, 49ers -05.

Trends

- Miami is 2-0 ATS vs Buffalo this season
- The Bills are 6-1 SU but just 3-4 ATS at Highmark Stadium this season
- Miami is 4-5 ATS on the road this season
- The over is 7-2 in Miami’s nine road games this season
- The over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five home games
- The Bills are 8-2 SU, but just 4-5-1 in their last 10 meetings against Miami

2022 SI Betting NFL Football: 33-31-1 ATS + Props +6.45 U
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 25-20 ATS + Props +5.75 U
2021 SI Betting Playoffs: 8-7-1 ATS + Prop Wagers +4.00 U
2021 SI Betting NFL: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 SI Betting NFL: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Published Jan 11, 2023

FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene.