2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Midseason Odds

Orlando’s Paolo Banchero is the heavy favorite at SI Sportsbook to win NBA Rookie of the Year.

First overall pick Paolo Banchero is a runaway favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

The Magic forward is a prohibitive -1613 favorite at SI Sportsbook to take home the hardware. If Banchero wins ROY, he would become the fourth No. 1 pick in the last decade to do so, joining Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, and the first Orlando player to earn the honor since Mike Miller in 2001.

Pacers guard Benedict Mathurin is a distant second with +850 odds and then there’s a steep drop-off to Jazz center Walker Kessler, who’s in third with +3000 odds. Pistons guard Jaden Ivey is a long shot at +6000 odds and tied for the fifth-best odds at a distant +20000 odds are Kings forward Keegan Murray and Thunder forward Jalen Williams.

Recent history has rewarded rookies who have helped contribute to their teams making the playoffs or play-in tournament: Scottie Barnes helped the Raptors to the No. 5 seed a season ago and LaMelo Ball and Ja Morant both brought their teams to play-in appearances in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

Banchero might break that streak as the Magic are currently in 13th in the East, though their improved play post-Jan. 1 is encouraging for a potential playoff push. Orlando is 11–10 so far in 2023 and three games out of 10th place. As for his counting stats, they blow the rest of the 2022 rookie class out of the water.

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The Duke product averages an even 20 points per game and if he keeps that up he will become the first first-year player to hit that mark since Zion Williamson in 2020. He’s also good for 6.7 rebounds per game, which leads his team and is fourth-best among rookies, and 3.6 assists, third-most in his class. Banchero shoots just 41.9% from the field and 28.4% from three, but those poor splits are likely just a byproduct of being his team’s go-to option in his first year in the league.

He was a +200 favorite to win Rookie of the Year back in October and his odds have only continued to shorten as the season goes on.

Mathurin is a candidate for not just ROY honors, but the sixth pick is also up for the Sixth Man of the Year award—he has the fifth-best odds to win it (+2500). The Pacers’ guard averages 17.3 points per game off the bench, second only to Banchero among the rookie class.

He’s yet to miss a game for Indiana and he came out of the gate firing with a 32-point performance in his seventh game as a pro. The Arizona standout also gets to the line six times per game, a very respectable average for a young guard.

It would take a lot for Mathurin to pull off the upset and beat out Banchero, but he has bettered his odds marginally from +1000 preseason (fifth-best) to +850. The Pacers looked like they were on their way to a playoff appearance earlier in the year—and Mathurin was a big reason why—until an injury to Tyrese Haliburton sent the team sliding down the standings. Now, they’re just one half-game ahead of the Magic in 12th place.

Next in line behind Banchero and Mathurin is Kessler, who was traded twice before he made his NBA debut with the Jazz. The Grizzlies selected the big man out of Auburn with the 22nd pick and then flipped him to the Timberwolves, who subsequently sent him to Utah in the Rudy Gobert trade.

Kessler is in the midst of a monster second-half of his rookie campaign, averaging a double-double so far in the New Year, highlighted by a 20-point, 21-rebound effort in a win against Minnesota and a few outings with seven swatted shots. His season averages are 8.2 points per game, 7.6 rebounds and an even two blocks, the fourth-best mark in the league.

The last big man to win Rookie of the Year was Towns in 2016. It’s highly unlikely Kessler joins him in that club, but he’s very clearly a foundational piece of the rebuild in Utah, which currently occupies the final play-in spot in the West.

Ivey, the fifth pick out of Purdue, is having a solid rookie season in Detroit, averaging 15.6 points per game and 4.6 assists, the best mark among all rookies. He began the season tied with Murray for the second-best odds at +450.

Murray, the fourth pick out of Iowa, is having a somewhat quieter campaign in Sacramento with an even 12 points per game average, though he’s a full-time starter for the 3-seed in the Western Conference.

The Thunder selected Williams 12th out of Santa Clara and the forward has improved with each passing month for a team with a viable chance at making the postseason. Averaging 12.2 points per game, he’s worked his way into the starting lineup. Williams was tied with Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe for the seventh-best odds at +3600 in the preseason.

2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Paolo Banchero -1613
Bennedict Mathurin +850
Walker Kessler +3000
Jaden Ivey +6000
Keegan Murray +20000
Jalen Williams +20000
Jabari Smith +25000
Shaedon Sharpe +50000

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