2022-23 NFL Season Betting Recap

Analyzing the betting numbers that defined the past NFL season.

After crowning the Chiefs as Super Bowl champions for the second time in the last four seasons following their triumph over the Eagles, it is time to take a look back at the NFL season from a betting perspective.

Home field was everything it was meant to be in 2022 as home teams went 160-122-2 straight-up (SU) (56.3%).

Meanwhile, grabbing the points was the lucrative way to invest as underdogs finished with a moneyline victory by Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII. NFL ‘dogs posted a lucrative 151-124-9 against the spread (ATS) (54.9%) mark. 

Let’s take a deeper look at how NFL teams fared when placed in particular roles by oddsmakers. 

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Best Overall Teams ATS

New York Giants 14-4
Cincinnati Bengals 13-5-1
San Francisco 49ers 13-7
Detroit Lions 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers 11-6-1

This list does not result in many surprises as four of the top five teams in the NFL this season against the spread all qualified for the postseason. The one outlier, Detroit, finished with a solid 9-8 SU mark, while posting the third-most wins versus the number (12).

Worst Overall Team ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-13-1
Chicago Bears 5-11-1
Indianapolis Colts 6-11
Kansas City Chiefs 7-12-1
Seattle Seahawks 7-11
Minnesota Vikings 7-10-1
Baltimore Ravens 7-9-2

The main takeaway from this grouping is that five of the worst ATS teams were among the 14 playoff squads. It is surprising to find Andy Reid’s club on this list despite possessing league MVP Patrick Mahomes. Despite posting a league-best 17-3 SU record, the Chiefs prevented bettors from cashing in on that success. 

Best Home Favorites ATS 

San Francisco 49ers 9-1
Philadelphia Eagles 8-3
Dallas Cowboys 5-2

Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers finished as the best team in the NFL when installed as home favorites. San Francisco, who was 10-1 SU at Levi’s Stadium, were an amazing 9-1 against the spread (ATS) when laying points in front of its home fans. The 49ers’ lone home loss versus the number took place in Week 10 when despite beating the Chargers, 22-16, they failed to cover the 8.5-point demand.

The one game where they were installed as home underdogs took place in Week 7 against Kansas City. The 49ers suffered their only outright home defeat as one-point ‘dogs in a 44-23 loss at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl champions. 

Worst Home Favorites ATS 

Baltimore Ravens 1-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5-1
Indianapolis Colts 1-4
Los Angeles Rams 1-4
Denver Broncos 1-4
Seattle Seahawks 1-4

Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens and Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers, were two teams that burned bettors as home favorites in the 2022 season. Despite being a solid 6-3 SU at M&T Bank Stadium, John Harbaugh’s crew was a disappointing 1-6 ATS over those contests when installed as the favorite. 

Brady’s last season was not lucrative for bettors. He finishing with a disappointing 1-5-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium as a favorite, despite a 5-5 SU mark.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Best Home Underdogs ATS

Jacksonville Jaguars 5-0
Carolina Panthers 5-1

Trevor Lawrence and the AFC South champion Jaguars were a lucrative team to back at the betting window at TIAA Bank Field. Among their nine home games, oddsmakers placed them as underdogs in five of those contests and Jacksonville covered four times (Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Cowboys) in the regular season and once in the wild-card round against the Chargers.

Worst Home Underdogs ATS

New England Patriots 0-3
New Orleans Saints 1-3
Houston Texans 3-5
Chicago Bears 3-4

Mac Jones and the Patriots were a team to fade this past season as home underdogs. In three games against Bengals, Bills and Ravens - not only did they not cover against the number, they lost outright by a combined margin of 82-55. 

Best Away Favorites ATS

Cincinnati Bengals 5-2
Los Angeles Chargers 4-2
Buffalo Bills 4-3-1

The AFC North champion Bengals were the best team in the NFL when placed as road favorites. Among Cincinnati’s 11 road games, oddsmakers demanded bettors lay points seven times when backing Zac Taylor’s squad. The two beats for Bengals bettors - against the spread - also resulted in SU losses in Week 2 at Dallas, followed by Week 8 at Cleveland.

Worst Away Favorites ATS

Las Vegas Raiders 0-4
Denver Broncos 0-3
Miami Dolphins 1-3
Philadelphia Eagles 2-5

Not surprisingly, one of the worst road teams in the NFL was also one of the worst away from the comforts of home versus the number. The Raiders, who were 2-7 SU away from Allegiant Stadium, were the worst road favorites in 2022. Las Vegas lost both SU and ATS in Week 3 at Tennessee, Week 8 at New Orleans, Week 9 at Jacksonville and Week 14 at the Rams. 

Best Away Underdogs ATS

New York Giants 7-2
Detroit Lions 5-2
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3
Houston Texans 5-3-1
Baltimore Ravens 4-1

In all nine of their road games, Brian Daboll’s crew received no respect from oddsmakers. The Giants, who were underdogs in every road game in 2022, finished a respectable 5-4 SU away from MetLife Stadium. Big Blue shined the most in the eyes of bettors by posting a highly lucrative 7-2 ATS mark in those road contests among its league-best 14-4 ATS mark overall. 

Worst Road Underdogs ATS

Los Angeles Rams 1-4-2
Minnesota Vikings 1-3
Chicago Bears 2-6 
New England Patriots 2-4

The Rams were among the worst road teams in the NFL and struggled in many areas. Los Angeles posted a -77 point differential, which not only led to a 1-7 SU road mark but also resulted in a 1-4-2 ATS record as road underdogs. The lone cash against the line came in Week 12 when Bryce Perkins did just enough to cover as 16.5-point road underdogs at Kansas City in a 26-10 loss. 

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

BY THE NUMBERS: FINAL 2022 NFL STATS

Final AFC Betting Numbers

Final NFC Betting Numbers

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