Celtics-Bucks NBA Spread, Over/Under and Prop Bets

Spread, over/under and prop bets for Tuesday’s Celtics-Bucks game in Milwaukee. The Bucks are favored against a shorthanded Celtics squad.

The first-place Celtics will be far from full strength when they take the floor Tuesday night at Fiserv Forum against the second-place Bucks. Only 1.5 games separate the two teams in the standings.

Boston will be without Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and likely Jayson Tatum for the front end of a back-to-back before the league enjoys almost an entire week off for the All-Star break. Milwaukee will also be shorthanded, though not to the same degree as the team that sent it home in seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals a season ago.

The Celtics throttled the Bucks, 139-118, in the first matchup since that series on Christmas Day behind 70 combined points from Tatum and Brown. After Tuesday’s game, the two heavyweights have one more regular-season meeting scheduled for late March.

The injury report from coach Joe Mazulla is as follows: Brown (facial fracture) and Smart (ankle) are both out, Tatum (illness) is doubtful, Grant Williams (elbow) and Rob Williams III (ankle) are both questionable, and Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles soreness) is probable. As for Mike Budenholzer's squad, Bobby Portis (knee) and recent acquisition Jae Crowder are both out, while Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) and Pat Connaughton (calf) are probable.

Morry Gash/AP

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Celtics +8.5 (-110) | Bucks -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: BOS (+310) | MIL (-400)
Total: 225.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Celtics Betting Profile

Straight-Up Record: 41–16
Against The Spread Record: 31–26
Over/Under Record: 27–28–2
Points Per Game (Rank): 117.6 (5)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 111.4 (6)

Bucks Betting Profile

Straight-Up Record: 39–17
Against The Spread Record: 31–22–3
Over/Under Record: 27–29
Points Per Game (Rank): 114.6 (14)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 111.6 (7)

Spread Bet: Bucks -8.5 (-110)

Milwaukee carries a 10-game winning streak into this matchup, and they've covered seven times during that stretch. Boston has won its last four and covered in each contest, though Tatum was active for those games.

The Celtics are also up against a tough opponent on the road for the first time since a Jan. 24 game at Miami, which was the last time they were underdogs. This game marks just the fourth time that the C's have gotten points all season, and it will be their largest underdog position by far.

If Tatum joins Brown and Smart on the bench, Boston will be without three of its top five scorers and will be hard-pressed to score on the Bucks' tough defense. Milwaukee also has one of the top three-point defenses in the league, which the Celtics could usually counter with their sharp marksmanship from outside, but not with some of their best shooters sidelined.

The Bucks are a tough team to beat at home, with a 23–5 record straight up and an 18–10 mark against the spread. Khris Middleton will be back in the lineup, Jrue Holiday will be out on the wing to harass Derrick White and Boston's other ball handlers, and Brook Lopez will be down low applying pressure. And in the end, Milwaukee has the best player on the floor in Antetokounmpo.

Over/Under Bet: Under 225.5 (-110)

Both teams are in the top five by defensive efficiency, and both see their games go under more often than not. The over is 18–10 for Milwaukee at home, though, one of the highest hit rates in the league, while the under is 8–18–1 on the road for Boston, the lowest over percentage in the NBA.

During the Bucks' 10-game winning streak, the under has delivered six times, though this will be the lowest point total over this recent stretch. The Celtics have only played three games without Tatum this season, and their scoring average dips more than eight points on average to 109.3 points per game. The last time these teams met, a shootout ensued—don't expect a repeat of that in Milwaukee.

Prop Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 33.5 Points (-110)

Antetokounmpo struggled by his standards against the Celtics on Christmas. He totaled 27 points on 9-22 shooting in a blowout loss, a far cry from his monster playoff performance against Boston last spring. Since then, he's had six 40-point performances (including three in which he broke 50), and his efficiency has also improved.

If the Bucks indeed pull away against a shorthanded Celtics team, as this line indicates may be the case, expect Antetokounmpo to play less than his usual workload. But this is a player who scored 50 in 30 minutes just a few weeks ago, and he’s quietly making a case for his third MVP. Having a dominant game against a fellow contender, something he did a few weeks ago against Denver, could go a long way.

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