Must Know NBA Betting Trends: Best and Worst Teams to Pick Against the Spread
A quick glance at the NBA standings will tell you that the Celtics are the best team in the NBA. The advanced stats bear that out as well, with Boston leading the league in net rating.
But when it comes to betting against the spread, you’d actually be better off banking on the Jazz or Thunder than backing the favorites to win the NBA Finals. The Celtics perform well against the spread, but they’re just outside the best of the best when it comes to cover percentage, per TeamRankings.
With the NBA season still on hold for the All-Star break, SI Betting analyzed the five best performing teams against the spread (six, actually because there’s a tie for fifth place) and the five worst.
This information might be useful as you make your betting picks down the home stretch of the NBA regular season.
Best NBA Teams to Bet on Against the Spread
Against the Spread Record: 35–21–1
Straight Up Record: 28-29
The best team in basketball to bet on has been favored just 17 times in 57 games. The Thunder are 9–8 ATS as a rare favorite and an impressive 26–13–1 ATS as an underdog, the second-most wins in that position in the NBA. OKC’s 19 outright wins as an underdog are also the second-most in the league. Oklahoma City delivers for bettors on the road with a 17–10–1 record ATS and at Paycom Center with an 18–11 mark in front of its fans. The overperforming Thunder also already smashed their preseason win total of 23.5 victories.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Against the Spread Record: 33–23–1
Straight Up Record: 38–19
The 76ers are a much better team to bet on at home than on the road. Their 20–10–1 record at Wells Fargo Center is tied with the Nuggets for the best in the league and they’ve been favored in all but four games in front of their fans. Philadelphia is 4–0 ATS and 3–1 straight up when getting points on its home floor. On the road, however, the Sixers are 13–13 ATS. As a road underdog, that mark falls to 4–6.
Against the Spread Record: 32–23–3
Straight Up Record: 41–17
The Bucks, winners of their last 12, have been the hottest team in basketball for more than a month. They were also a profitable team to bet on during that stretch with an 8–4 record ATS. Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the NBA to bet on at home with an 18–11 mark ATS at Fiserv Forum. Their 14–12–3 record ATS on the road is not as profitable, but they’re among the 10 teams with winning records on the road ATS. The Bucks have only been installed as an underdog 12 times this season but they are 4–7–1 when getting points, the third-worst cover percentage in the league.
Against the Spread Record: 33–25–1
Straight Up Record: 24–35
The Magic have more wins ATS as an underdog than any other team in the NBA. They’re 31–21–1 for the year when getting points, which is the vast majority of the time—they’re 2–4 ATS as a rare favorite. Orlando performs a bit better ATS at the Amway Center, where it is 17–12, than it does on the road, where it has gone 16–13–1. The Magic are 12–12 straight up as a home underdog, the most wins in the league, and are just three wins shy of cashing the over on their preseason win total of 26.5.
Against the Spread Record: 33–26–1
Straight Up Record: 29–31
The Jazz have been one of the season’s biggest surprises as they are still in the mix after trading away their two All-Stars in the offseason. They got off to a 10–3 start ATS and straight up and have continued to deliver for bettors. Utah is 22–8–1 ATS as an underdog, a blistering cover rate, though the team is just 11–18 when it’s favored. The 17–12–1 road record ATS for the Jazz is third-best cover percentage in the league while its 16–14 mark at Vivint Arena is middle of the pack. One of the most profitable positions for Utah this season has been as a home underdog—it’s 7–2 straight up and 8–1 ATS in that scenario.
*(Records current as of Feb. 22.)
Worst NBA Teams to Bet on Against the Spread
Against the Spread Record: 21–36–3
Straight Up Record: 31–29
The Mavericks are the worst team to bet on in the NBA and they’re one of just two teams that cover less than 40% of the time. Dallas is 9–10–1 ATS as an underdog and 12–26–2 ATS as a favorite, tied for the most losses in the league. The Mavericks are actually worse ATS at home, where they are 9–17–3, than they are on the road, where they have gone 12–19. Dallas isn’t pulling upsets often, either, as it is 6–14 straight up as an underdog.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
Against the Spread Record: 21–35–3
Straight Up Record: 32–27
The Heat win nearly twice as often as they lose at home, but they still have the worst record ATS at home. They are 8–19–2 ATS in front of their fans and 6–18–2 as a home favorite. Miami is much better on the road with a 12–16–1 mark ATS and overall it is one of the biggest underperformers as a favorite. The Heat are 13–26–3 when they are giving points and in the underdog role they are just 8–9. No team has more clutch wins than Miami, though, which is 23–18 in those situations. That helps explain its winning record and poor performance ATS.
Against the Spread Record: 24–35
Straight Up Record: 14–45
The Spurs have more losses ATS as an underdog than any team in the league. They are 22–34 ATS when getting points, the most losses in the league, and 2–1 ATS as a favorite. San Antonio holds its own at home with a 14–14 record ATS but that drops to 10–19 on the road. The Spurs also have the second-worst winning percentage as an underdog with just 12 upsets across 56 games.
Against the Spread Record: 23–33–2
Straight Up Record: 13–45
The Rockets are the only team in the NBA that has not won a game as a favorite this season. They are 0–3 straight up when giving points. And in their usual position as an underdog, they are 23–30–2. Houston, similar to San Antonio, is .500 ATS at home with a 13–13–2 mark when getting points. That craters to 10–19 on the road, though.
Against the Spread Record: 25–33–2
Straight Up Record: 17–43
The Hornets are just plain bad to bet on. Charlotte is 19–26–2 ATS as an underdog and 6–7 ATS as a favorite. Its 10–17 record at home ATS is the third-worst in the NBA and it also has the most losses ATS at home in the league. Things are surprisingly better on the road for the Hornets, who are 15–16–2 ATS, about middle of the pack.
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