MLB American League Cy Young Future Odds

Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole are co-favorites, but there’s betting value further down the list.

Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole are the favorites for the 2023 AL Cy Young at SI Sportsbook.

DeGrom (+600) has a new home in Arlington, Texas, and the two-time NL Cy Young winner will be looking for his first award in the American League. There’s no question that deGrom is an elite pitcher, the only real question is health. DeGrom has pitched only 156 innings across the past two seasons, with his last season of 200-plus innings coming in 2019 with his last NL Cy Young Award. AL hitters have not seen a lot of deGrom, which certainly gives him a major advantage. DeGrom’s strikeout rate remains elite at over 14 per nine, though he did surrender a career-high 1.26 home runs per nine in 2022. Still, this all comes down to health for me. If you’re willing to bet deGrom can get to 165-plus innings, take this bet at 6-to-1.

Gerrit Cole, a perennial favorite, is still chasing his first Cy Young Award :: Kirk Klement/USA Today Sports

Cole (+600) has yet to win a Cy Young Award despite the fact that he routinely has the best odds coming into the season. Maybe he’s due. Though Cole had an unimpressive 3.50 ERA in 2022, his strikeout ability still remained elite (11.53 per nine innings) and he was one of only eight pitchers that made it to 200 innings last year. Cole is prone to give up the long ball, but if you subscribe to the theory that juiced balls may have been used during Yankees games to help boost Aaron Judge’s HR record numbers, then you should take these 6-to-1 odds for Cole.

Dylan Cease (+800) was a finalist for this award in 2022, but it’s worth noting that he led all qualifying starters with 3.82 walks per nine in 2022. Unless he can keep runners off the bases, I don’t see his ERA staying under 2.50 again this year, especially as we saw him struggle down the stretch last season.

Alek Manoah (+900) pitched 196 innings in 2022, and finished with a 2.24 ERA (fourth in MLB).

Carlos Rodon (+1000) is a nice value pick at 10-to-1. After spending one season in the NL, the lefty returns to the American League with the Yankees, where he should be able to rack up plenty of wins. Rodon led MLB in K rate in 2022, striking out batters 33.4% of the time.

Shane McClanahan (+1200) has the talent, but he has to remain healthy. Shane Bieber (+1300) pitched 200 innings last season with a 2.88 ERA. Both represent good value.

Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are two pitchers I would be willing to bet on for a big payout.

Valdez (+2000) was a finalist for the award last season, setting a new MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts in a single season, pitching to a 2.82 ERA and logging 17 wins with the Astros.

Javier (+2500) started in the bullpen for the Astros last season but ended up dominating in the starting rotation -- including a 13-strikeout game with no hits allowed vs. the Yankees in June. Javier finished 2022 with a 2.54 ERA and 11 wins.

Here are the current odds for AL Cy Young at SI Sportsbook:

Jacob deGrom +600
Gerrit Cole +600
Dylan Cease +800
Alek Manoah +900
Carlos Rodon +1000
Shohei Ohtani +1000
Shane McClanahan +1200
Shane Bieber +1300
Kevin Gausman +1600
Luis Castillo +1800
Logan Gilbert +2000
Framber Valdez +2000
Tyler Glasnow +2000
Robbie Ray +2000
Cristian Javier +2500
Triston McKenzie +3500
Lucas Giolito +4000
Pablo Lopez +4000
Nestor Cortes, Jr. +4000

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