NBA Picks: Lakers-Grizzlies Predictions for Spread, Over/Under and Player Props
The Grizzlies went into a tailspin after their last meeting with the Lakers.
Los Angeles won the now-infamous Jan. 20 game best known for the altercation involving Shannon Sharpe, who was sitting courtside. That began a five-game losing streak for Memphis and a 2–8 stretch overall. The team has since stabilized with four wins over its last six, but it’s up against a Lakers team that has gained some steam heading into Fedex Forum.
L.A. has won three in a row and is playing much better basketball with the pieces it acquired at the trade deadline. But LeBron James (foot) has been ruled out for Tuesday’s matchup and he could reportedly miss significant time with the injury. D’Angelo Russell (ankle) is doubtful and Steven Adams (knee) won’t be making his return for Memphis just yet.
The Grizzlies have one of the best home records in the league and they’re nearly double-digit favorites against the visiting shorthanded Lakers.
Petre Thomas/USA Today Sports
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Lakers +9.5 (-118) | Grizzlies -9.5 (+100)
Moneyline: LAL (+310) | MEM (-400)
Total: 230.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Lakers Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 29–32
Against The Spread Record: 29–31–1
Over/Under Record: 31–30
Points Per Game (Rank): 117.0 (6)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 117.9 (24)
Grizzlies Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 36–23
Against The Spread Record: 27–30–2
Over/Under Record: 25–32–2
Points Per Game (Rank): 115.9 (9)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 111.9 (6)
Spread Bet: Lakers +9.5 (-118)
The Grizzlies were seven-point road favorites in the last meeting between these teams, which the Lakers won, 122-121. The lineup coach Darvin Ham is trotting out in Memphis will be vastly different than it was that night at Crypto.com Arena.
Russell Westbrook and Patrick Beverly have both been traded, James is out and Anthony Davis will be active. Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley are also new additions to the Lakeshow. The Grizzlies are largely healthy, though Adams, who set the tone with 16 points and 17 rebounds last time out against L.A., remains sidelined.
Memphis in recent weeks has begun to look more like the team it was earlier in the season, but its record against the spread is not as strong. The Grizzlies are 4–6 ATS over their last 10 and failed to cover as an 11.5-point favorite against the Jazz just before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 4–1 against the number over their last five and this is their largest underdog position in quite some time. What’s more, Los Angeles is 17–12 ATS as a road underdog this season.
The onus will be on Davis to score inside against Jaren Jackson Jr., the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. The Lakers won’t have much answer for Ja Morant, but their improved shooting should at the very least keep them in this contest. All indications point toward a Memphis win, given its advantage on the glass and on defense, but a backdoor cover could be in order with such a wide spread.
Over/Under Bet: Under 230.5 (-110)
The under hit the last time these teams were matched up, though it was set at 244. The expectation is for a lot less points this time around with James and his 30 points per game average out of the picture. Still, 230.5 points is a relatively high figure to clear.
Both offenses rank in the top 10 in scoring and the Grizzlies like to push the pace, but the under hits more often than not in games at FedEx Forum this year: 15–13–2. Los Angeles and Memphis have both played two games since the All-Star break and the under has hit in all of them so far. With James, the Lakers’ top scorer and playmaker out, they will be hard-pressed to run up the score on this vaunted defensive unit.
Prop Bet: Dennis Schröder Under 7.5 Assists (-141)
Unfortunately, you have to lay pretty serious juice for this wager, but there’s a solid track record supporting the under. Schröder averages just 4.3 dimes for the year and even in the midst of his best passing month of the season, he’s good for 6.1 assists on average. He tallied eight dimes last time out against the Mavericks, but that was his only game with more than 7.5 assists over his last five outings.
With James out, there will be more pressure on Schröder to distribute but Memphis has the No. 1 defensive rating at home this season. Don’t expect an offensive clinic from L.A. or Schröder, though he did notch eight assists in his last game against the Grizzlies.
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