NCAA Men’s Basketball ACC Tournament Betting Preview: Duke Favored Ahead of Miami, Virginia
The ACC Tournament tips off Tuesday afternoon from the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. It’s the first of the Power 6 conference tournaments to get underway this March with 15 teams battling it out for the trophy.
Miami and Virginia shared the regular-season crown, but the Hurricanes earned the No. 1 seed by beating the Cavaliers in their one meeting this year. Fourth-seeded Duke is the betting favorite to win the conference tournament, though, ahead of both UM and UVA.
Kevin Sweeney’s latest edition of bracket watch has five teams from the ACC going dancing (Miami, Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh and N.C. State), with two currently on the bubble (Clemson and North Carolina).
Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:
No. 1 Miami Hurricanes (24–6, 15–5 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 18–12
KenPom Ranking: 37
NET Rating: 35
Odds to win ACC: +350 (T-2nd)
The Hurricanes lost to the Seminoles at the buzzer two games ago to end their seven-game winning streak and then they bounced back to beat the Panthers in the regular-season finale and clinch the top seed in the conference tournament. Miami has four double-digit scorers, led by Isaiah Wong (15.9 ppg), and ranks top 25 in scoring offense (79.6 ppg). UM earned a double bye to the quarterfinals, where it will play the winner of Syracuse and Wake Forest, both teams it beat this year.
No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (23–6, 15–5 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 10–17–2
KenPom Ranking: 36
NET Rating: 30
Odds to win ACC: +350 (T-2nd)
Virginia beat Clemson and Louisville last week to regain some momentum heading into the tournament after it dropped back-to-back games to Boston College and North Carolina. Defense is the hallmark of this Cavaliers team, which allows the 10th-fewest points in Division I (60.5 ppg). Armaan Franklin leads the team in scoring (12.6 ppg) and Kihei Clark initiates the offense (5.7 apg). UVA will face North Carolina, Boston College or Louisville in the quarterfinals—it split its season series with the Tar Heels and Eagles and swept the Cardinals.
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (22–9, 14–6 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 70
NET Rating: 61
Odds to win ACC: +600 (4th)
The Tigers head to Greensboro, N.C., coming off a 23-point win over Notre Dame, one of the three teams it could face first in the ACC Tournament. After a 10–1 start in league play, Clemson dropped five of its last nine. Hunter Tyson leads the team in scoring (15.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.5 rpg) and is more than capable from beyond the arc (41.5%). The Tigers went a combined 5–0 in the regular season against the Wolfpack, Fighting Irish and Hokies, its three potential quarterfinal opponents, though its two games against Virginia Tech were decided by a combined four points.
Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (23–8, 14–6 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 12–19
KenPom Ranking: 31
NET Rating: 25
Odds to win ACC: +300 (1st)
Duke carries a six-game winning streak into the ACC Tournament, where it’s the betting favorite to win. Its last loss was Feb. 11 on the road against Virginia and it wrapped up the regular season with an upset on the road against rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils best player is big man Kyle Filipowski, a freshman who paces the team in scoring (15 ppg) and on the glass (9.2 rpg). Jon Scheyer’s squad will play either Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech or Florida State in the quarterfinals—Duke beat each of those teams by eight or more points.
No. 5 Pittsburgh Panthers (21–10, 14–6 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 21–9–1
KenPom Ranking: 68
NET Rating: 58
Odds to win ACC: +1100 (6th)
Pittsburgh heads into the conference tournament having dropped three of its final five games. It has its defense to blame for those late-season losses, not its offense, which is led by Blake Hinson (16.1 ppg) and Jamarius Burton (15.6 ppg). The Panthers will face either the Seminoles or Yellow Jackets in Round 2. They split with Florida State and swept Georgia Tech.
No. 6 N.C. State Wolfpack (22–9, 12–8 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–14–2
KenPom Ranking: 52
NET Rating: 41
Odds to win ACC: +1400 (7th)
The Wolfpack wrapped the season with back-to-back losses and dropped four of their final seven games overall. Between Terquavion Smith (17.3 ppg) and Jarkel Joiner (17.3 ppg), N.C. State has two of the five best scorers in the conference, who help make up a top-40 offense nationally (78.4 ppg). Despite their slide at the end of the year, the Wolfpack earned a bye to the second round, where they will play the winner of Virginia Tech-Notre Dame, two teams they beat back in January.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels (19–12, 11–9 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 10–19–2
KenPom Ranking: 52
NET Rating: 49
Odds to win ACC: +750 (5th)
It’s been a whirlwind of a year for the preseason No. 1-ranked team. North Carolina, after making a run to the national championship last year, finds itself on the bubble heading into the ACC Tournament after a 62-57 loss to Duke. Between Caleb Love (16.7 ppg), Armando Bacot (16.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and R.J. Davis (15.8 ppg), the Tar Heels have a seasoned roster that could once again make some noise in March. They’ll play the winner of Boston College and Louisville, both teams it beat in the regular season.
No. 8 Syracuse Orange (17–14, 10–10 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–13–3
KenPom Ranking: 121
NET Rating: 126
Odds to win ACC: +7500 (10th)
Syracuse, which has been known to make a run in March, ended the regular season with a 72-63 win over Wake Forest, its first-round opponent. That ended a four-game skid for the Orange, who are better known for their play on offense than their defense this year. Joseph Girard III (16.7 ppg) and Judah Mintz (16.2 ppg) led the team in scoring but Jesse Edwards racked up 27 points and 20 rebounds against the Demon Deacons last time out.
No. 9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (18–13, 10–10 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 91
NET Rating: 91
Odds to win ACC: +3600 (8th)
Wake Forest lost four of its final five games yet still managed to earn a bye to the second round of the tournament. The Demon Deacons are led by Tyree Appleby, who’s first in the conference in scoring (18.8 ppg) and assists (6.3 apg). Wake Forest gets another shot at Syracuse in the second round after it lost to the Orange on Saturday in New York, 72-63.
No. 10 Boston College Eagles (15–16, 9–11 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 172
NET Rating: 166
Odds to win ACC: +15000 (11th)
Boston College had won three in a row, including an upset of then-No. 6 Virginia, before it fell to Georgia Tech on senior night. Quinten Post, the team’s top scorer (15.2 ppg) and rebounder (5.7 rpg) – who’s only played 18 games this year – went down with an ankle injury in the loss. The Eagles, who rely more on their defense than their offense, face Louisville in the first round, a team it beat, 75-65, in late January.
No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies (18–13, 8–12 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 77
NET Rating: 68
Odds to win ACC: +3700 (9th)
After a 1–7 start in ACC play, Virginia Tech won seven of its last 12 and blew out Louisville and Florida State in its final two regular-season contests. The top scorer for the Hokies is Grant Basile (16.5 ppg), a transfer from Wright State. Their road to defending last year’s conference tournament title begins with the Fighting Irish, who they beat, 93-87, on the road a month ago behind 33 points by Basile.
No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (9–22, 7–13 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 12–19
KenPom Ranking: 212
NET Rating: 219
Odds to win ACC: +25000 (T-13th)
It’s been a surprisingly down year for Florida State, which never fully recovered from a 1–9 start to the season. The Seminoles lost their last two by double digits and eight of their last 10 overall. Between Matthew Cleveland (14 ppg), Darin Green Jr. (13.5 ppg) and Caleb Mills (13.2 ppg), they have a capable scoring trio but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. FSU beat Georgia Tech, 75-64, at home in January behind 21 points and 12 boards from Cleveland.
No. 13 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (14–17, 6–14 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 16–13
KenPom Ranking: 164
NET Rating: 177
Odds to win ACC: +25000 (T-13th)
The Yellow Jackets have built up some momentum heading into the tournament. After a 1–12 start in league play, they won four of their next six against ACC teams and five of seven overall to finish the regular season. Miles Kelly is the team’s top scorer (14.2 ppg) and he’s been shooting well from deep over the last few weeks. Georgia Tech, which won the conference tournament two years ago, will face Florida State first, a team it lost to, 75-64, on the road in early January.
No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11–20, 3–17 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 9–20–2
KenPom Ranking: 169
NET Rating: 185
Odds to win ACC: +16000 (12th)
Conference wins were tough to come by for Notre Dame, which went winless across seven games in February and then began March with an upset of then-No. 25 Pittsburgh. The Fighting Irish were then blown out by Clemson on Saturday to close out its schedule. Notre Dame will face Virginia Tech in Round 1, a team it lost to in mid-February, 93-87, in a game where its leading scorer Nate Laszewski finished with a career-high 33 points.
No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (4–27, 2–18 ACC)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 284
NET Rating: 311
Odds to win ACC: +25000 (T-13th)
The Cardinals have had an historically bad season under first-year coach Kenny Payne. They’ve lost their last four games overall and finished with just two ACC wins. El Ellis (17.7 ppg) and Mike James (10.1 ppg) are the primary threats opposing defenses have to account for on this low-scoring unit. Louisville lost to its first-round foe Boston College, 75-65, in late January on the road.
Betting Breakdown
The Blue Devils have the most momentum of any team in the conference heading into the tournament. Duke has also defeated every team on its side of the bracket. On the other side of the bracket, Virginia is worth backing, though it could be headed toward a quarterfinal matchup with North Carolina, which it lost to a few weeks ago. The Tar Heels are capable of stringing together a few wins with their backs against the wall, but they don’t offer much value.
BET: Virginia (+350)
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