NCAA Men’s Basketball Big 12 Tournament Betting Preview: Kansas Favored to Go Back-to-Back

Kansas, the defending conference and national champion, has the best odds to win the Big 12 Tournament for the 16th time in program history.

Half of the teams in the Big 12 are currently ranked in the AP Top 25 and they’ll all converge in Kansas City this week to crown a winner.

Expectations are high for Kansas, the defending national champions, who won last year’s conference tournament en route to their national title run. The top-seeded Jayhawks are the betting favorites to win it all once again, and No. 2 Texas, which won the tournament in 2021, has the next-best odds to do so.

Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket projection has six Big 12 teams (Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU) squarely in the tournament field, with two more (Oklahoma State and West Virginia) on the bubble with some work to do.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐬 𝟔𝟔 𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝟏𝟐 𝐌𝐞𝐧'𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐭 🏆

➡️ https://t.co/cJlgOINmye#Big12MBB x @Phillips66Gas pic.twitter.com/tCdhldUHnQ

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 5, 2023

Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (25–6, 13–5 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 9
NET Rating: 7
Odds to win Big 12: +250 (1st)

Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Kansas heads back to Kansas City as the defending tournament and national champs. By earning the top seed and a bye, the Jayhawks, ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25, set up a favorable quarterfinals matchup. They’ll play the winner of Texas Tech-West Virginia, both teams they swept this season, though three of those four games were decided by four points or fewer. KU boasts the top scorer in the conference in Jalen Wilson (19.7 ppg) and it has three other players who average 10-plus points per game.

No. 2 Texas Longhorns (23–8, 12–6 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 8
NET Rating: 10
Odds to win Big 12: +300 (2nd)

Texas will play the winner of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals. The No. 7 Longhorns swept both potential opponents in the regular season but they had a far easier time against the Cowboys, who they beat by double digits twice, than against the Sooners, who they beat by one point on the road and by two in overtime at home. Marcus Carr (16.2 ppg, 4.2 apg) is the top scorer and distributor for Texas, which has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country (78.8 ppg)

No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats (23–8, 11–7 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 21–10
KenPom Ranking: 18
NET Rating: 17
Odds to win Big 12: +850 (5th)

Keyontae Johnson (17.8 ppg) and Markquis Nowell (17 ppg, 7.7 apg) make up the highest-scoring duo in the Big 12. Backed by a stellar defense, they helped Kansas State turn things around this season and earn a spot back in the Big Dance. The No. 12 Wildcats are matched up with TCU in the quarterfinals, a team they beat by 21 at home and lost to by 14 on the road.

Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Baylor Bears (22–9, 11–7 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 16–14–1
KenPom Ranking: 14
NET Rating: 12
Odds to win Big 12: +450 (3rd)

Baylor draws a difficult quarterfinals matchup with Iowa State, one of the two teams it lost to twice this season. The No. 10 Bears are deadly from deep (9.5 made threes per game) and their offense is one of the highest-graded units in the NCAA. Keyonte George (16 ppg), Adam Flagler (15.6 ppg) and LJ Cryer (14.6 ppg) make for a fearsome trio and they all let it fly from deep.

No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones (18–12, 9–9 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15
KenPom Ranking: 22
NET Rating: 20
Odds to win Big 12: +1100 (6th)

Iowa State slows the game down to let its top-20 defense (62.2 ppg) take over games. That’s how it executed an upset over Baylor on the road this past weekend in which it held the No. 7 team in the country at the time to 58 points. The Cyclones also beat the Bears by double digits earlier this season and they are matched up with them once again in the quarterfinals. ISU’s top scorers, Jaren Holmes (13.2 ppg) and Gabe Kalscheur (12.7 ppg), each had a big game against Baylor this year.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs (20–11, 9–9 Big 12)Against the Spread Record: 15–15–1
KenPom Ranking: 25
NET Rating: 28
Odds to win Big 12: +600 (4th)

TCU earned the last bye to the quarterfinals, where a matchup with Kansas State awaits. The No. 22 Horned Frogs beat the Wildcats at home with Mike Miles Jr. in the lineup and lost on the road without him. Miles (17.2 ppg) missed eight games this season, but he is a dangerous scorer for a team that prides itself on defense.

No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys (17–14, 8–10 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 15–16
KenPom Ranking: 40
NET Rating: 43
Odds to win Big 12: +4500 (T-8th)

A win against Texas Tech in Oklahoma State’s last game put a stop to a run of five straight losses. It missed out on a bye to the quarterfinals and will be matched up with Oklahoma in the first round. The Cowboys swept the Sooners this season and flexed their defensive chops in both games. Oklahoma State doesn’t have one dominant scorer, but Bryce Thompson (11.9 ppg) and Kalib Boone (11.5 ppg) lead the way on offense.

No. 8 West Virginia Mountaineers (18–13, 7–11 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 17
NET Rating: 24
Odds to win Big 12: +1800 (7th)

West Virginia took down Kansas State last time out, a big win that could give the Mountaineers some momentum in March. First, WVU will have to get past Texas Tech, a team it beat on the road and lost to at home. Erik Stevenson (15.5 pgg) is West Virginia’s top scorer and he’s come on late in the year to string together five straight games with 20-plus points for one of the highest-graded offenses in DI.

No. 9 Texas Tech Raiders (16–15, 5–13 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 53
NET Rating: 55
Odds to win Big 12: +4500 (T-8th)

The Red Raiders ended the regular season on a three-game losing streak, though each contest was decided by four points or less and they had won four in a row before that skid. Texas Tech will play West Virginia in the first round after it split the season series with the Mountaineers. Led by Kevin Obanor (14.4 ppg), TTU has five players with double-digit scoring averages

No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (15–16, 5–13 Big 12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 51
NET Rating: 66
Odds to win Big 12: +4500 (T-8th)

The Sooners struggled this year in a loaded conference, but their upset against TCU in the regular-season finale is proof they could still be a dangerous team in Kansas City. Oklahoma’s first-round opponent is Oklahoma State and it lost both games this season against its in-state rival by double-digits. To make any kind of run, OU will need a big performance from Grant Sherfield, the team’s top scorer (16.1 ppg).

Betting Breakdown

If this season taught us anything, it’s that there are no easy outs in the Big 12. Kansas has been the most dominant team in the conference and enters the tournament as the rightful favorite. Still, I’m hesitant to back the Jayhawks at such short odds. On the other hand, Kansas State has wins over Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, TCU and two against Baylor to point at, and significantly longer odds than the top contenders despite being the No. 3 seed. The Wildcats have never won the Big 12 tournament before, but this could be their year.

BET: Kansas State (+850)

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