NCAA Men’s Basketball Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview: Purdue Stands Atop a Crowded Conference
The Big Ten Tournament begins Wednesday evening in Chicago.
It’s a crowded field, alright, with just a handful of games separating second place from 12th. Purdue powered its way to the No. 1 seed at the United Center and is accordingly the betting favorite to win the tournament, something it’s only accomplished once in program history. Third-seeded Indiana has the best odds to challenge the Boilermakers for the title.
In Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket projection, seven Big Ten teams are bound for the tournament (Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland, Illinois) and three are on the bubble with some work to do to strengthen their case (Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State).
Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers (26–5, 15–5 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 12–17–2
KenPom Ranking: 6
NET Rating: 5
Odds to win Big Ten: +150 (1st)
Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports
After an 11–1 start to Big Ten play, Purdue went 4–4 over its final eight games. That strong start was more than enough to put the Boilermakers, who are No. 5 in the AP Top 25, in position to win the regular-season title and advance straight to the quarterfinals. There they will play the winner of Michigan-Rutgers. They beat the Wolverines and lost to the Scarlet Knights by one point at home. Zach Edey, who stands at 7’4” and is top 10 nationally in scoring (21.9 ppg) and rebounding (12.8 rpg), is a force to be reckoned with inside.
No. 2 Northwestern Wildcats (21–10, 12–8 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 19–12
KenPom Ranking: 43
NET Rating: 38
Odds to win Big Ten: +900 (5th)
Northwestern put an end to its season-high three-game losing streak with a big win over Rutgers in the regular-season finale. The good news is that win earned the Wildcats a double bye to the quarterfinals. The bad news is that they will play the winner of Penn State-Illinois, two of the teams it lost to during that losing stretch. That was the only time the Wildcats saw the Nittany Lions all year, but they did beat the Fighting Illini in their other meeting in January. NU operates at a slow pace and lets its defense control games, though it does have one of the better scorers in the conference in Boo Buie (17.2 ppg).
No. 3 Indiana Hoosiers (21–10, 12–8 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 30
NET Rating: 29
Odds to win Big Ten: +550 (2nd)
Indiana held off Michigan in overtime on Sunday to help secure its favorable seeding. The No. 19 Hoosiers will play either Maryland, Nebraska or Minnesota. They defeated the Cornhuskers and Golden Gophers in the regular season but lost to the Terrapins by 11 on the road in late January. IU goes as Trayce Jackson-Davis goes. He’s second in the Big Ten in scoring (20.5 ppg), second in rebounding (11 rpg) and first in blocks (2.8 bpg).
No. 4 Michigan State Spartans (19–11, 11–8 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 15–15
KenPom Ranking: 28
NET Rating: 31
Odds to win Big Ten: +600 (3rd)
The Spartans took care of business at the end of the season to earn the last double bye to the quarterfinals. There they will play either Iowa, Ohio State or Wisconsin. Michigan State went a combined 4–1 against those opponents with the lone loss in overtime to the Hawkeyes a few weeks ago. Tyson Walker (14.8 ppg) and Joey Hauser (14.2 ppg) lead the way on offense for one of the four teams in the country that shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc.
No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (19–12, 11–9 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 17–14
KenPom Ranking: 35
NET Rating: 37
Odds to win Big Ten: +2200 (8th)
If Iowa is able to win the Big Ten Tournament again this year it will be its elite offense that carries the day. Kris Murray (20.5 ppg) is tied for the second-highest scoring average in the conference and he accounts for a sizable chunk of the Hawkeyes’ top-20 offense (80.6 ppg). The bracket did not shake out well for Iowa, though, as it will face the winner of Wisconsin-Ohio State. The Badgers swept the Hawkeyes and they split the season series with the Buckeyes.
Terrance Williams/AP
No. 6 Maryland Terrapins (20–11, 11–9, Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 20–11
KenPom Ranking: 20
NET Rating: 26
Odds to win Big Ten: +650 (4th)
Maryland will play the winner of Nebraska and Minnesota in the quarterfinals. The Terrapins swept the Golden Gophers and split with the Cornhuskers as their road struggles continued a few weeks ago in an overtime loss in Lincoln. Maryland can hold its own on offense, where Jahmir Young (16.3 ppg) leads the team in scoring, and defense as it ranks just outside the top 25 in points allowed (63.2 ppg).
No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini (20–11, 11–9 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 32
NET Rating: 33
Odds to win Big Ten: +1200 (6th)
Illinois draws a difficult Round 1 matchup against Penn State. The Fighting Illini played the Nittany Lions all the way back in December and lost by 15. When they met again a few weeks back, Penn State won again by 12. Illinois usually has a stout defense but it yielded 93 points in that game. Much of the scoring responsibility on offense falls to Terrence Shannon Jr. (17.1 ppg) and Matthew Mayer (13 ppg), two upperclassmen transfers from the Big 12.
No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (17–14, 11–9 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 38
NET Rating: 54
Odds to win Big Ten: +2500 (T-9th)
The last three games for the Wolverines all went to overtime, but they left with just one win in those games. In the crowded Big Ten, that cost them a double bye to the quarterfinals and they will instead face Rutgers in the second round. Michigan scored a double-digit road win over the Scarlet Knights just a few weeks ago. Opposing teams will have their hands full with 7’1” center Hunter Dickinson (18.2 ppg, 9 rpg), who finished top five in the conference in scoring and rebounding.
No. 9 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (18–13, 10–10 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 42
NET Rating: 40
Odds to win Big Ten: +2000 (7th)
Rutgers limped to the finish line in league play, losing six of its last eight games before the tournament. One of those losses came against Michigan, the Round 1 opponent for the Scarlet Knights. They managed just 45 points in a double-digit defeat against the Wolverines at home. The calling card for this Rutgers team is its defense that ranks top 10 in points allowed (60.4 ppg). As for the offense, it goes through Clifford Omoruyi (13.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg).
Ron Johnson/USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (19–12, 10–10 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 16–13–2
KenPom Ranking: 50
NET Rating: 56
Odds to win Big Ten: +2500 (T-9th)
Penn State came to life in February and won five of its final six games. One of those victories was against Illinois, the team the Nittany Lions will play in the quarterfinals—both times they played the Illini this season they won by double digits. Led by Jalen Pickett (18 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 7 apg), who scored 41 points in the second game against Illinois, Penn State is a dangerous offense full of shooters. Only two teams hit more three-pointers per game than the Nittany Lions (10.8).
No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers (16–15, 9–11 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 93
NET Rating: 92
Odds to win Big Ten: +25000 (13th)
Nebraska’s Round 1 opponent is last-place Minnesota, which it swept this season. The Cornhuskers had an easier time in their second go-round against the Golden Gophers a few weeks ago, which they won by nine, than in the first meeting that went to overtime. Nebraska has been on a roll since the start of February, winning six of its last eight games, in large part due to the play of Keisei Tominaga (12.8 ppg), the team’s No. 2 scorer.
No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers (17–13, 9–11 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 13–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 73
NET Rating: 78
Odds to win Big Ten: +6000 (T-11th)
After a 3–0 start in league play, Wisconsin was unable to string together consecutive wins against Big Ten teams. The Badgers were competitive all season, though, and nearly pulled off an upset against Purdue just last week. Wisconsin’s plodding offense had enough to get past the Buckeyes about a month ago and they’ll face Ohio State again in Round 1. Chucky Hepburn (12.2 ppg) and Conner Essegian (11.9 ppg) are two players to keep an eye on for the Badgers.
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes (13–18, 5–15 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 11–20
KenPom Ranking: 57
NET Rating: 63
Odds to win Big Ten: +6000 (T-11th)
The Buckeyes won two of their final three games to end a trying regular season on somewhat of a high note. Ohio State’s first-round opponent will be Wisconsin, which it lost to by five at home in early February. OSU’s offense, led by Brice Sensabaugh (16.5 ppg), has a tough matchup in store against the Badgers’ defense.
No. 14 Minnesota Golden Gophers (8–21, 2–17 Big Ten)
Against the Spread Record: 12–15–2
KenPom Ranking: 222
NET Rating: 231
Odds to win Big Ten: +100000 (14th)
Minnesota is 2–15 in 2023 and two of those losses came against Nebraska, its Round 1 opponent. Early in the year, the Golden Gophers took the Cornhuskers to overtime and lost by two at home and they fell by 11 on the road a few weeks ago. Minnesota’s leading scorer, Dawson Garcia (15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg), logged a double double in both games against Nebraska.
Betting Breakdown
Indiana had Purdue’s number in the regular season. Of course, the Hoosiers have to win a few games first to set up a potential third meeting with the Boilermakers in the championship game. But if they do advance past potential challengers like Maryland and Northwestern, they could win the Big Ten for the first time in program history. There’s very little value in backing Purdue as the favorite. I prefer IU at longer odds with the dynamic Jackson-Davis leading the charge.
BET: Indiana (+550)
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