NCAA Men’s Basketball Pac-12 Tournament Betting Preview: UCLA, Arizona a Cut Above the Rest

The Wildcats are the defending conference tournament champs but the top-seeded Bruins are the betting favorite.

The Pac-12 Tournament gets underway from San Francisco this week and there are two teams that stand atop the betting field.

UCLA and Arizona, two of the best teams in the nation, both have short odds to win the title. The top-seeded Bruins are the favorite, just ahead of the No. 2 Wildcats, who won the Pac-12 tournament in 2022.

Depending on how this week unfolds, the Pac-12 could only have a few teams representing it in the Big Dance. In Kevin Sweeney’s latest bracket projection, only three teams are definitively in (UCLA, Arizona, USC) while two are on the bubble (Oregon and Arizona State).

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The field for the 2023 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament is set! See you next week at @TMobileArena in @Vegas!

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— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) March 5, 2023

Here’s a team-by-team outlook heading into the tournament:

No. 1 UCLA Bruins (27–4, 18–2 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 18–12–1
KenPom Ranking: 2
NET Rating: 4
Odds to win Pac-12: +120 (1st)

Kiyoshi Mio/USA TODAY Sports

UCLA has won 10 in a row and has eyes on its first conference tournament win since 2014. The only Pac-12 teams the Bruins lost to this year, USC and Arizona, are on the other side of the bracket, so their path to the championship game, which will begin in the quarterfinals against the winner of Washington-Colorado, isn’t bad. UCLA, ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25, has a top-10 defense (60.1 ppg) and is led by a trio of upperclassmen in Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.5 ppg), Jaylen Clark (13 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (12.9 ppg, 4.7 apg).

No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (25–6, 14–6 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 11
NET Rating: 11
Odds to win Pac-12: +185 (2nd)

Arizona lost two of its last three games but still heads to San Francisco with a solid shot at winning the conference tournament for the second season running. Led by the Pac-12’s No. 1 scorer and rebounder Azuolas Tubelis (19.9 ppg, 9.2 rpg), the No. 8 Wildcats are one of the five-highest scoring teams in the country (83.1 ppg). They have a somewhat tough draw in the quarterfinals against Stanford, which they lost to in their lone meeting, and Utah, which they beat once and lost to as well.

No. 3 USC Trojans (22–9, 14–6 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 17–14
KenPom Ranking: 34
NET Rating: 45
Odds to win Pac-12: +700 (3rd)

The Trojans’ top scorer Boogie Ellis (18.1 ppg) went on a tear over the last few weeks and his team won five of its last six accordingly. USC earned a bye to the quarterfinals where it will play the winner between Oregon State, which it split with, and Arizona State, a team it swept. Ellis scored 28 in the season finale in a three-point win over the Sun Devils, but opponents also have to watch out for do-it-all guard Drew Peterson (14.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.5 apg).

No. 4 Oregon Ducks (18–13, 12–8 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 41
NET Rating: 47
Odds to win Pac-12: +1100 (4th)

Oregon went on a three-game winning streak to end the season and capture the final bye of the conference tournament. It now awaits the winner of Washington State-California in the quarterfinals. The Ducks split with the Cougars and swept the Golden Bears. Opponents have to account for the big man-guard duo of N’Faly Dante (13.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and Will Richardson (12.5 ppg, 5.2 apg), the two engines of the offense.

No. 5 Arizona State Sun Devils (20–11, 11–9 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–17
KenPom Ranking: 60
NET Rating: 65
Odds to win Pac-12: +2300 (6th)

Arizona State pulled off a big-time upset over Arizona a few weeks ago and followed up that win with back-to-back losses to UCLA and USC. After a difficult slate to end the season, the Sun Devils face an easier first-round opponent in Oregon State, a team they downed twice already. ASU’s top scorer Desmond Cambridge Jr. (13.3 ppg) led his team to victory in both meetings with the Beavers.

Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports

No. 6 Washington State Cougars (16–15, 11–9 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 54
NET Rating: 70
Odds to win Pac-12: +1700 (5th)

Outside of UCLA, Washington State has the longest active winning streak of any team in the conference. The Cougars have won six in a row and they beat Washington in their most recent game behind TJ Bamba’s 36 points, a new career high for the team’s top scorer (15.7 ppg). WSU will face Cal in the first round, a team they swept in the regular season and saw just a few weeks ago.

No. 7 Utah Utes (17–14, 10–10 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16–1
KenPom Ranking: 64
NET Rating: 76
Odds to win Pac-12: +6000 (8th)

The Utes went on a five-game slide to end the regular season and lost most of their momentum after a strong start to conference play. They’ll first face a Stanford team that they beat once and lost to once. Branden Carlson leads the team in scoring and on the glass (16 ppg, 7.4 rpg) but it was Lazar Stefanovic who had the most success against the Cardinal as he scored 20 in the win and 26 in a losing effort.

No. 8 Washington Huskies (16–15, 8–12 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 17–13–1
KenPom Ranking: 105
NET Rating: 124
Odds to win Pac-12: +10000 (10th)

Washington, which lost its last two games heading into the Pac-12 Tournament, is matched up in Round 1 with a Colorado team that it swept this year. The Huskies boast one of the top scorers in the conference in Keion Brooks (17.8 ppg) and its defense is known for swatting away a fair share of shots (5.3 blocks per game).

No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes (16–15, 8–12 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 13–17–1
KenPom Ranking: 56
NET Rating: 71
Odds to win Pac-12: +3400 (7th)

Colorado will be without starting point guard KJ Simpson (15.9 ppg) in San Francisco this week after he contracted mono. That puts more pressure on Tristan da Silva (15.9) to shoulder the offensive load as the Buffaloes’ only other double-digit scorer. The team relies on its stout defense to keep it in games and it does a good job of forcing turnovers (7.8 steals per game). Colorado got two cracks at Washington in the regular season and lost both times.

No. 10 Stanford Cardinal (13–18, 7–13 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 16–15
KenPom Ranking: 86
NET Rating: 98
Odds to win Pac-12: +8000 (9th)

Stanford briefly turned things around by following up an 0–7 start in Pac-12 play with five straight wins and then it faltered again in February. The Cardinal are set to play Utah in the first round, a team they lost to at home and beat on the road in their last meeting. Spencer Jones (13.9 ppg) is the player to watch on this offense and he had some success against the Utes this year.

No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (11–20, 5–15 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 14–16
KenPom Ranking: 215
NET Rating: 221
Odds to win Pac-12: +25000 (T-11th)

Oregon State’s win over Cal in the season finale put an end to its four-game losing streak ahead of the tournament in San Francisco. It was a rare victory for the Beavers, who went on a run two seasons ago and won the Pac-12 Tournament as a No. 5 seed. A run like that seems out of reach for this year’s team, which is led by Jordan Pope (12.6 ppg). Oregon State will face Arizona State in the first round of the tournament—the Sun Devils swept the season series.

No. 12 California Golden Bears (3–28, 2–18 Pac-12)
Against the Spread Record: 13–18
KenPom Ranking: 262
NET Rating: 310
Odds to win Pac-12: +25000 (T-11th)

Cal, which is dead last nationally in scoring average (58.5 ppg), has lost its last 15 games. Its most recent win came against Stanford in early January. The Golden Bears are matched up with Washington State in Round 1, a team they lost to twice this year. Since Devin Askew went down with a season-ending injury, Cal doesn’t have a single player who averages double-digit points.

Betting Breakdown

The Bruins should march through the quarterfinals and semifinals to set up an epic rubber match with either Arizona or USC in the championship game. UCLA will face little resistance on its side of the bracket and it showed in the season finale that it can beat the Wildcats. There’s admittedly not much value in backing UCLA, but this veteran-laden team has a stout defense and capable scorers and it should emerge victorious this week.

If you’re searching for more value, look no further than USC.

BET: UCLA (+120)

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